ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1081 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:29 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Can someone explain helicity to me? Thanks


Very tight cyclonic flow in a thunderstorm's updraft.
Think of it like a corkscrew pattern.
Helicity is usually highest at the surface.
Theory is the tower's helicity transfer's mid-level vorticity to the surface.

Very interesting details in this paper:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 3815002485
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1082 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:30 pm

Where might the LLC be located? Could it be forming underneath any of that convection or is it racing out to the west? There seems to be some southerly inflow into the western side of the blob:

Image
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1083 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:33 pm

Shear is really tearing this apart.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1084 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:34 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Shear is really tearing this apart.


its also what kept it alive and brought it back to life :)
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1085 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:38 pm

850MB vorticity is increasing:

Image

Anticyclone is nearby:

Image
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1086 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:54 pm

2pm position was 22N/64W... The low level clouds racing to the WNW and the convection seems stationary... Almost think the center could relocate back farther E near 63.5N/22N...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1087 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:54 pm

The burn off of this morning's cirrus is showing this being relatively compact.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1088 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:56 pm

Blown Away wrote:2pm position was 22N/64W... The low level clouds racing to the WNW and the convection seems stationary... Almost think the center could relocate back farther E near 63.5N/22N...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif


yeah, again if anything were to it would wherever the wind shift is in the wave axis. and as of right now looking at the inflow its back where the new convection is firing.. so we will have to wait and see.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1089 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:01 pm

another swirl/vort has shot out to the west.. means there is enough vorticity back in the convection to be producing and llc..
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1090 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:05 pm

If this "blob" could get further west under the Anticyclone it would stand a much better chance
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1091 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:07 pm

Also interesting when viewing the MIMIC-TPW how the axis has gone from a positive to a negative tilt.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1092 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:07 pm

Not much going on this afternoon. Convection has diminished - lots of outflow boundaries moving off to the north from the collapsed convection. About the weakest and most disorganized circulation possible. It could be reclassified as a TD at some point before it reaches the Gulf coast, but it may never be much better organized than it is now.

Image
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1093 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:Not much going on this afternoon. Convection has diminished - lots of outflow boundaries moving off to the north from the collapsed convection. About the weakest and most disorganized circulation possible. It could be reclassified as a TD at some point before it reaches the Gulf coast, but it may never be much better organized than it is now.

http://wxman57.com/images/4b.JPG

Yeah, not sure this will amount to anything until after Florida.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1094 Postby xironman » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:17 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:another swirl/vort has shot out to the west.. means there is enough vorticity back in the convection to be producing and llc..


Isn't the convection now decoupled from the low level features?
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1095 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:25 pm

Image
Outflow boundaries spitting out near the 2pm 22N/64W, so it seems the only near term chance is for a LLC to develop back under the convection near 22N/63W. JMHO...
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1096 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:28 pm

xironman wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:another swirl/vort has shot out to the west.. means there is enough vorticity back in the convection to be producing and llc..


Isn't the convection now decoupled from the low level features?


from the looks of it. the convection is producing multiple swirls/vorts. mostly because the wave axis is so elongated.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1097 Postby ronjon » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:30 pm

Seems like the LLC is detached from the MLC underneath the convection.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1098 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:33 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:If this "blob" could get further west under the Anticyclone it would stand a much better chance


I agree. Give it another day or so and the shear will drop off significantly once the system approaches the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1099 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:37 pm

Afternoon convection firing over Hispaniola. Air is juiced.
System will be running into that tonight.

GFS Sounding just north of the coast has 2900 CAPE with better looking midlayer RH.
Shear zero to 450mb.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1100 Postby alienstorm » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:38 pm

Look closely at this loop and speed it up - just east of the towers (23N/63W) or there about clearly see rotation http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider
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