ATL: MARIA - Models

[txwatcher91]

One big change on the 12z GFS vs its prior run... Notice the trough out west in the US is digging much further south and Jose's remnants are weaker. Both of these would promote stronger upstream ridging.. not enough still but it is a fairly significant change ~5 days out.

[Ken711]

This 12z run looks a little further east than 06z at 156 hrs?

[LarryWx]

Just goes to show you don't necessarily need a big Eastern CONUS trough to keep the CONUS protected. Jose just blew such a hole in the Bermuda High it cannot connect back with the High over the Great Lakes. It is rare you see such a big High over SE Canada and the Great Lakes.

Good post, gator. It isn't all that easy for TCs to hit the US east coast. Otherwise, there'd be many more landfalls than have actually occurred.

['CaneFreak]

OK so a few things about this run of the GFS. In the short term, we are seeing a bit stronger Bermuda-Azores high that is building westward a bit more than recent runs between Maria and Jose as Maria moves north of the DR/Haiti. It later weakens this ridging between Jose and Maria but this is something to watch in future runs because this is the same thing that we saw with Irma (a ridge that built farther west than expected). The high over the northeastern US needs to be watched as well because it appears that if this high moves farther east than expected, Maria will have a chance to move farther west before the turn north or it may not turn north at all. This ridge appears to be the feature that boots Jose to the east. The ultimate strength of this high over the northeastern US will depend on the strength of the trough over the western US. If this western US trough is stronger than expected for a longer period of time than expected, the ridge in the east will stay stronger for longer than expected as well. Lots of variables involved here and it will likely be several more days before we know for sure whether this is a CONUS hit or not.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

[tolakram]

[chris_fit]

Looks like Maria takes a Blue Poo on FL as she scoots out to sea.

[SootyTern]

Looks like Maria takes a Blue Poo on FL as she scoots out to sea.

I was wondering the same thing...what is that squirt of low pressure back towards So Fla about?

[Blinhart]

Looks like Maria takes a Blue Poo on FL as she scoots out to sea.

I was wondering the same thing...what is that squirt of low pressure back towards So Fla about?

Could that actually be true path of Maria, and the dark part that is moving just a ghost. I really doubt it will go North that much.

[Ken711]

How has the UKMET been with tracking Maria so far, anyone know the latest track?

[gatorcane]

How has the UKMET been with tracking Maria so far, anyone know the latest track?

HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 62.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.09.2017 0 16.2N 62.8W 970 71
0000UTC 20.09.2017 12 16.9N 64.4W 971 68
1200UTC 20.09.2017 24 18.0N 65.9W 972 63
0000UTC 21.09.2017 36 19.0N 67.3W 966 73
1200UTC 21.09.2017 48 20.0N 68.7W 963 75
0000UTC 22.09.2017 60 20.9N 70.1W 956 80
1200UTC 22.09.2017 72 22.0N 70.9W 957 76
0000UTC 23.09.2017 84 23.4N 71.3W 951 76
1200UTC 23.09.2017 96 25.0N 71.7W 942 83
0000UTC 24.09.2017 108 26.7N 71.7W 939 82
1200UTC 24.09.2017 120 28.1N 71.5W 934 82
0000UTC 25.09.2017 132 29.7N 70.3W 935 83
1200UTC 25.09.2017 144 31.4N 69.6W 936 84

[txwatcher91]

CMC is quite a bit further west vs it’s 12z run. It is slower and it seems the ridge builds in and pushes it fairly close to NC before an approaching trough kicks it OTS. Pretty big changes for one run.

[Alyono]

the Canadian would likely have a hit on the Carolinas if it didn't unrealistically make Lee a hurricane. Lee is keeping Jose from exiting

[Aric Dunn]

THat is a big change with the GFS though. it slowly weakens jose out of the 500 mb range and does not turn it back west... but its too late on this run was not enough time for the ridge to build back.. ITs a sign though that there is still great great uncertainty and a narrow window. everyone is still in play from florida to the NE..

lets see what the members do. probably a shift back west with some of the members.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF Is farther west and south initially nearly on the coast of DR. before taking a hard right turn just before the bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

well the next few days will have the GIV data so that should help some.

[Ken711]

THat is a big change with the GFS though. it slowly weakens jose out of the 500 mb range and does not turn it back west... but its too late on this run was not enough time for the ridge to build back.. ITs a sign though that there is still great great uncertainty and a narrow window. everyone is still in play from florida to the NE..

lets see what the members do. probably a shift back west with some of the members.

Wouldn't Jose being more west provide a way out for Maria?

[Aric Dunn]

THat is a big change with the GFS though. it slowly weakens jose out of the 500 mb range and does not turn it back west... but its too late on this run was not enough time for the ridge to build back.. ITs a sign though that there is still great great uncertainty and a narrow window. everyone is still in play from florida to the NE..

lets see what the members do. probably a shift back west with some of the members.

Wouldn't Jose being more west provide a way out for Maria?

its not more west.. and not exactly. if it weakens out of the steering layer and the ridge can build in than it wont matter.

[Aric Dunn]

THe crazy thing is. IF Jose was not there. this would be a classic setup of a trough out west and a large building ridge on the east coast. maria could have been a gulf store or a west runner easy.

Still of course a chance of gulf..

[gtalum]

THe crazy thing is. IF Jose was not there. this would be a classic setup of a trough out west and a large building ridge on the east coast. maria could have been a gulf store or a west runner easy.

Still of course a chance of gulf..

If Maria ends up landfalling in Florida or worse, heading into the Gulf, that will be one heck of a colossal forecast error by the NHC at days 4 and 5.