ATL: HARVEY - Models

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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1061 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:54 pm

GFS trend @ 84 hours:

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1062 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:55 pm

With a further northeast initial surface low placement, that would allow for Harvey to remain over open water for a more extended period of time.
Last edited by ColdMiser123 on Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1063 Postby msp » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:55 pm

yep looks like 18z GFS is gonna landfall north of the border. this will be the GFS's most northern run yet. 995mb at 90hr and still well offshore ENE of Brownsville
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1064 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:55 pm

This will be corpus
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1065 Postby hd44 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:56 pm

Image

Gfs continues to show generally light shear and anticyclonic 200 mb streamlines . That could certainly support an intensifying hurricane .
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1066 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:56 pm

At 90 hours.

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1067 Postby HurricaneBrain » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:58 pm

Looks like a strong TS landfall in Corpus Christi.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1068 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:58 pm

18Z NAM just finished running nothing intensifying but shows the trof and ULL creating enough weakness to pull up Harv....
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1069 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:58 pm

Category 1 Hurricane at landfall in southern Texas. 987.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1070 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:59 pm

Down to 993 mb at 96 hours. I'm guessing that would be a cat one. Looks to be bearing down on Corpus and Port Aransas.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1071 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:59 pm

Just north of CC.

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1072 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:59 pm

18z GFS through 96 hours, looks like a landfall near Corpus Christi:

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1073 Postby msp » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:59 pm

987mb at landfall early Friday evening between matagorda bay and port aransas
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1074 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:01 pm

18z GFS a minimal hurricane landfall @ hour 102:

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Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1075 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:01 pm

At this rate the models are trending, Louisiana better pay attention.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1076 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:03 pm

Port Aransas towards Matagorda takes a beating in this run.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1077 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:03 pm

Cpv17 wrote:At this rate the models are trending, Louisiana better pay attention.


Don't know if it can be pushed back into the GOM while it being this deep in Texas.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1078 Postby msp » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:03 pm

18z gfs moves it slowly north between austin and houston. victoria to la grange to college station would get swamped in this scenario.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1079 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:04 pm

Cpv17 wrote:At this rate the models are trending, Louisiana better pay attention.


I wouldn't go that far yet. We're getting to the point in time where the models should start to lock in the next few runs. A TX landfall looks likely right now.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1080 Postby hd44 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:05 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/analogs/09L_analogs_latest.png
Some high impact analogs showing up.
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