ATL: IRMA - Models

[Siker]

Ignoring the exact track of the hurricane for a moment, the Euro did trend stronger with the ULL in front of future Irma, closer to the GFS. Closed height contours at H5 at hr 96 vs open in last night's run.

It also had higher heights south and southeast of the ULL for what that might contribute to steering.

[wxmann_91]

Ignoring the exact track of the hurricane for a moment, the Euro did trend stronger with the ULL in front of future Irma, closer to the GFS. Closed height contours at H5 at hr 96 vs open in last night's run.

It also had higher heights south and southeast of the ULL for what that might contribute to steering.

Yeah, it does seem the Euro has a more compact ULL that perturbs the ridging north of Irma a little less than the GFS, even though the two have converged on position.

This is one of those setups where the geometry of the ridge >>> the strength of the ridge.

[AutoPenalti]

Hr 120


Ridge looks flat

[AxaltaRacing24]

Pretty damn south

[meriland29]

hr 144

[Sciencerocks]

144 hours appears to be 2.5 degrees further to the west-southwest from the 12z.

About to hit the islands.

[meriland29]

What does a flat ridge imply though?

[BYG Jacob]

What does a flat ridge imply though?

Just keeps steering it basically due west.

[Bocadude85]

144 hours appears to be 2.5 degrees further to the west-southwest from the 12z.

About to hit the islands.

If your using the toggle switch on tropical tidbits to compare the previous run then your comparing tonight's 0z run to yesterday's 0z run..

[wxmann_91]

What does a flat ridge imply though?

TC's tend to follow the path of least resistance. Think of a ridge as a barrier of sorts. In the GFS solution, the ULL sucks the barrier in such that it lies in a SE-NW orientation. So Irma starts gaining latitude earlier. In the Euro solution, the ULL doesn't affect the barrier as much, and it lies in a E-W orientation (the flatter ridge). This solution would put many of the Lesser Antilles, PR, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas in greater danger down the road.

[meriland29]

168 hr

[ColdMiser123]

Puerto Rico soon to be in the right front quadrant this run.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Appears to be shredder bound

[sma10]

After 96 hrs, GFS / Euro are night and day

[meriland29]

192

[ColdMiser123]

Landfalls in extreme northern Hispanola at hour 192. Looks like the ridge is blocking any kind of escape this run.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Landfalls in extreme northern Hispanola at hour 192. Looks like the ridge is blocking any kind of escape this run.

Imagine the hype if this thing shows a FL landfall

[sma10]

Hmmm, interesting - direct bullseye hit on Hispaniola. Since it's day 8, this means Irma is likely to NOT go thru the shredder.

[meriland29]

If that panned out, it would be shredded by those mtns

[sma10]

Landfalls in extreme northern Hispanola at hour 192. Looks like the ridge is blocking any kind of escape this run.

Imagine the hype if this thing shows a FL landfall

I think it might this run.