ATL: MARIA - Models

[otowntiger]

models are hinting that the building ridge may not matter. May be enough of a weakness to allow this to stay safely off the east coast. I'd say this is the most likely scenario. Jose may have to scoot far to the east in order for this to hit now (of course, the models do seem to be trending Jose to the east)

I was thinking the same thing. It doesn't seem to matter what Jose does or doesn't do, Maria is turning north just after leaving the Caribbean no matter what according to each and every model I see. And of course and most importantly the NHC.

[gtalum]

06z GFS east again, and a little faster.

[Stangfriik]

Wftv Orlando met just said that due to the high pressure between Maria and Jose moving a little more east, it'll cause Maria to go well east of us and of the Bahamas. Thoughts?

[BobHarlem]

Wftv Orlando met just said that due to the high pressure between Maria and Jose moving a little more east, it'll cause Maria to go well east of us and of the Bahamas. Thoughts?

Probably over simplifying it, but yeah, Maria isn't likely to be a continental US landfall, which doesn't mean you let up monitoring it. Especially for the Carolinas/NE.

[Voltron]

Wftv Orlando met just said that due to the high pressure between Maria and Jose moving a little more east, it'll cause Maria to go well east of us and of the Bahamas. Thoughts?

Probably over simplifying it, but yeah, Maria isn't likely to be a continental US landfall, which doesn't mean you let up monitoring it.

Yup Maria may very well go OTS. Simplely put the hogh did move while Jose did cause however you look at it a weakness and thus a funnel like conclusion. This does not mean that you stop watching as anything can change in the models. Interestinf though all this time the models had it turning north and then who knows so I know I was paying a lot of attention the the blocking mech. But never really materialized

[Kazmit]

I might have to keep a close eye on this after that big eastward shift.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro pass over Puerto Rico

[tolakram]

6Z GFS is further east and north, though the GFS has been right of the track so far.

[GlennOBX]

I just got a look at the 0z Euro. Sorry for being "late to the party". So, the Euro thinks that Jose is going to move north, then move back south toward Maria as she approaches the east coast, and basically says "follow me" and keeps Maria off our coast?

I am in no way, shape or form an expert in this, but I'm not buying that scenario, even without the "conversation" between the 2 lol

[tgenius]

If jose is weakening then I'm assuming eventually the models will pick up on that and adjust accordingly, but that said, I would have to imagine that the chance of a SFL landfall is lowering no?

[AxaltaRacing24]

If jose is weakening then I'm assuming eventually the models will pick up on that and adjust accordingly, but that said, I would have to imagine that the chance of a SFL landfall is lowering no?

Yes, but the chances of a CONUS landfall could POSSIBLY increase if Jose would have that big of an impact. We will know more in a few days.

[Aric Dunn]

THe 12z Tab's are showing the steering currents to fall apart again on the 12z run.. was a presurser to a bunch of various members yesterday showing florida and gulf impacts.. I wonder if we see that today..

[tolakram]

Much better.

Please limit discussion to model runs and try to steer clear of personal predictions here. Thanks.

[SoupBone]

0Z Euro pass over Puerto Rico

Damn, that puts San Juan in the NE quad.

[tolakram]

Reading the model bias chart ... source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al152017/



GFS (AVNO) is well NE of actual while the Euro errors are somewhat SW around the actual track. Please let us know if my interpretation is wrong because it very well may be.

[Aric Dunn]

Reading the model bias chart ... source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al152017/

[img]https://i.imgur.com/zdHlq4e.png[/ig]

GFS (AVNO) is well NE of actual while the Euro errors are somewhat SW around the actual track. Please let us know if my interpretation is wrong because it very well may be.

well there is not one model on that is under 50 miles..

though its hard to tell lol

[tolakram]

As far as mean errors, NHC best at 12 hours but Euro is showing the smallest errors. All of these errors higher than with Irma if I recall correctly.

['CaneFreak]

Jose is stalling and strengthening this morning. Wow. This will definitely affect the track of Maria but the question still remains. In looking at the steering flow charts earlier this morning, I could definitely see a stall somewhere off of the East Coast. We'll just have to see how the models adjust. It is going to be an interesting next several days.

[Aric Dunn]

Yes it is the NAM. but Since Jose wont be fully tropical and the NAM is pretty decent with synoptics and non tropical I decided to take a look at the NAM for the first time.... if you look back a few runs you will notice a stronger JOSE and weaker ridging and weaker trough out west... THe 12z however is a pretty drastic change. goes with a much weaker jose and less of a 500 mb presence, a slightly more tilted trough out west and stronger ridging built between jose and maria.

add that to the "Tab's" 12z showing the steering collapsing again one might think some of the other models or the members might flop back to a continued wnw track like yesterday again..we will see.

should be a interesting next few days..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=134

[txwatcher91]

Yes it is the NAM. but Since Jose wont be fully tropical and the NAM is pretty decent with synoptics and non tropical I decided to take a look at the NAM for the first time.... if you look back a few runs you will notice a stronger JOSE and weaker ridging and weaker trough out west... THe 12z however is a pretty drastic change. goes with a much weaker jose and less of a 500 mb presence, a slightly more tilted trough out west and stronger ridging built between jose and maria.

add that to the "Tab's" 12z showing the steering collapsing again one might think some of the other models or the members might flop back to a continued wnw track like yesterday again..we will see.

should be a interesting next few days..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=134

Aric, I was noticing that too and the NAM was a pretty big change from it's previous run. It continues to show a weaker and weaker Jose (which speaks volumes as NAM loves to overdo intensity) and the ridging is a bit stronger. It will be interesting to see if the other 12z models pick up on this as well, the last recon pass showed Jose continuing to weaken with the pressure rising and winds 55-60mph max at the surface.