ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091659
AF303 0507A FRANKLIN HDOB 52 20170809
164930 2019N 09351W 8430 01425 9915 +197 +191 134049 050 040 008 00
165000 2020N 09350W 8428 01431 9915 +203 +183 132047 048 044 008 00
165030 2021N 09348W 8432 01428 9916 +205 +178 132049 050 050 010 00
165100 2023N 09347W 8434 01429 9921 +203 +174 135052 054 059 010 00
165130 2024N 09346W 8426 01440 9926 +198 +179 136057 058 060 011 00
165200 2025N 09345W 8428 01439 9930 +197 +178 139064 067 060 012 00
165230 2026N 09344W 8426 01445 9935 +194 +177 145068 068 057 014 00
165300 2027N 09343W 8428 01447 9937 +197 +176 144067 068 054 015 00
165330 2028N 09341W 8419 01455 9943 +189 +178 145071 074 055 013 00
165400 2030N 09340W 8429 01457 9966 +171 //// 144072 074 053 012 01
165430 2031N 09339W 8429 01461 9974 +167 //// 143070 071 054 013 01
165500 2032N 09337W 8433 01462 9980 +168 //// 144069 070 051 011 01
165530 2032N 09337W 8433 01462 9978 +174 //// 142067 070 050 010 01
165600 2035N 09335W 8434 01472 9984 +174 //// 142067 068 051 009 01
165630 2036N 09333W 8420 01491 9987 +179 +172 142066 068 051 008 00
165700 2038N 09332W 8435 01479 9993 +180 +166 139066 068 049 008 00
165730 2039N 09330W 8424 01494 9996 +183 +159 137068 069 046 007 00
165800 2041N 09329W 8432 01492 0000 +185 +160 137070 071 048 008 00
165830 2042N 09327W 8428 01502 0009 +185 +150 139069 070 045 008 00
165900 2044N 09326W 8429 01506 0018 +181 +143 137069 070 044 007 00
$$
;

74 kt FL, 60 kt SFMR.

[NDG]

74 knot flight level winds found on the NE quadrant, it should be upgraded it to Hurricane within the hour, IMO.

[CrazyC83]

74 knot flight level winds found on the NE quadrant, it should be upgraded it to Hurricane within the hour, IMO.

That equates to 59 kt at the surface. SFMR does not support hurricane either.

[GCANE]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 091700
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072017
A. 09/16:42:10Z
B. 20 deg 06 min N
094 deg 08 min W
C. 850 mb 1299 m
D. 40 kt
E. 318 deg 26 nm
F. 072 deg 58 kt
G. 330 deg 50 nm
H. EXTRAP 985 mb
I. 18 C / 1529 m
J. 21 C / 1529 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E34/40/20
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 0507A FRANKLIN OB 15
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 74 KT 050 / 33 NM 16:53:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

[1900hurricane]

The most recent GPM pass reveals good developing structure.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091709
AF303 0507A FRANKLIN HDOB 53 20170809
165930 2045N 09325W 8433 01507 0023 +179 +144 139067 068 042 007 00
170000 2047N 09323W 8427 01517 0028 +178 +148 141068 070 040 007 00
170030 2048N 09322W 8430 01515 0032 +175 +153 142068 069 041 007 00
170100 2049N 09320W 8429 01520 0038 +170 +154 141066 067 039 006 00
170130 2051N 09319W 8432 01520 0041 +175 +150 143066 066 037 006 00
170200 2052N 09317W 8432 01524 0044 +175 +149 141064 066 036 007 00
170230 2054N 09316W 8430 01529 0048 +173 +152 140063 063 037 006 00
170300 2055N 09314W 8431 01530 0050 +175 +151 139061 062 037 006 00
170330 2057N 09313W 8427 01535 0053 +173 +150 140063 064 035 007 00
170400 2058N 09311W 8429 01537 0056 +175 +149 141064 065 034 006 00
170430 2100N 09310W 8430 01537 0058 +175 +148 141064 065 035 006 00
170500 2101N 09308W 8433 01537 0059 +178 +140 142066 067 036 006 00
170530 2103N 09306W 8429 01545 0063 +177 +137 143067 068 035 006 00
170600 2104N 09305W 8429 01545 0066 +174 +142 144065 067 035 006 00
170630 2106N 09303W 8429 01547 0068 +174 +146 145063 065 035 006 00
170700 2107N 09302W 8429 01547 0069 +171 +150 146062 063 033 006 00
170730 2109N 09300W 8430 01547 0071 +169 +156 146059 061 033 006 00
170800 2111N 09259W 8433 01546 0074 +165 +161 143057 059 031 006 00
170830 2112N 09257W 8454 01529 0077 +169 +158 147059 061 029 007 00
170900 2113N 09256W 8442 01539 0076 +166 +161 147056 058 028 007 00
$$
;

[Steve]

Looking a bit ominous this morning. Maybe that drier RH will keep it in check but I doubt it.
No signs of destructive shear. Warm SST, favorable UL environment and topography has me thinking CAT 2 but honestly I haven't been able to watch him much today.

I was arguing against that yesterday and last night. I just don't think there is the time. This will landfall probably shortly after midnight and it's not a hurricane yet. I think there's a shot at some Cat 2 gusts out over the Gulf and probably 10 meters or more up. But you need that at the surface sustained for 1 minute to truly classify as a 2. Cat 2 is sustained at at least 96 mph or 83 knots. I just don't see it. Now if it had looked like this heading to the Yucatan for the first landfall, it's possible based on the rapid response and regeneration once it hit water again that it might have intensified to a 2. I guess there's a remote chance, but I really doubt it.

[NDG]

74 knot flight level winds found on the NE quadrant, it should be upgraded it to Hurricane within the hour, IMO.

That equates to 59 kt at the surface. SFMR does not support hurricane either.

They are still going to upgrade it, IMO.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 17:00Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 07 in 2017
Storm Name: Franklin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 15 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 16:42:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°06'N 94°08'W (20.1N 94.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 165 statute miles (266 km) to the NNW (332°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,299m (4,262ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 72° at 58kts (From the ENE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles) to the NNW (330°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 340° to 160° (NNW to SSE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) which was observed 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NE (50°) from the flight level center at 16:53:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091719
AF303 0507A FRANKLIN HDOB 54 20170809
170930 2115N 09254W 8409 01572 0076 +168 +146 144059 060 032 007 00
171000 2116N 09253W 8421 01564 0081 +168 +144 145059 060 034 006 00
171030 2118N 09251W 8428 01557 0081 +169 +145 144060 062 034 006 00
171100 2119N 09249W 8427 01559 0087 +164 +151 142057 058 032 007 00
171130 2121N 09248W 8431 01556 0086 +164 +153 141056 058 032 006 00
171200 2123N 09246W 8430 01558 0084 +170 +148 138056 058 033 005 00
171230 2124N 09245W 8429 01563 0085 +173 +144 134054 055 033 006 00
171300 2126N 09243W 8429 01564 0087 +173 +142 133055 055 032 006 00
171330 2128N 09242W 8427 01568 0091 +171 +143 134055 055 032 006 00
171400 2130N 09241W 8430 01565 0094 +168 +145 136054 055 033 006 00
171430 2132N 09239W 8442 01557 0096 +168 +154 133053 053 033 005 00
171500 2133N 09238W 8421 01578 0093 +174 +146 132054 055 031 006 00
171530 2135N 09237W 8424 01578 0099 +170 +146 132052 053 029 007 00
171600 2137N 09235W 8428 01574 0098 +174 +142 131051 053 030 006 00
171630 2139N 09234W 8429 01575 0101 +170 +147 130050 050 034 005 00
171700 2141N 09233W 8429 01574 0102 +170 +149 133049 050 032 006 00
171730 2143N 09232W 8429 01576 0102 +171 +147 134049 050 032 006 00
171800 2145N 09230W 8428 01578 0105 +169 +147 133049 049 032 006 00
171830 2146N 09229W 8433 01575 0106 +171 +144 130049 050 031 006 00
171900 2148N 09228W 8429 01580 0107 +172 +144 127050 050 032 005 00
$$
;

[znel52]

After a season full of some hideous storms it's nice to see a beauty like Franklin. One of the best looking tropical storms I can recall. If you are in the path of this storm stay safe!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 1:19pm EDT:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Global Hawk mission through 11:08am EDT:

[wxman57]

Nope - still a tropical storm. Recon could not find any hurricane-force winds at the surface.

[NDG]

And I was wrong


1:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 9
Location: 20.2°N 94.4°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

[tailgater]

Looking a bit ominous this morning. Maybe that drier RH will keep it in check but I doubt it.
No signs of destructive shear. Warm SST, favorable UL environment and topography has me thinking CAT 2 but honestly I haven't been able to watch him much today.

I was arguing against that yesterday and last night. I just don't think there is the time. This will landfall probably shortly after midnight and it's not a hurricane yet. I think there's a shot at some Cat 2 gusts out over the Gulf and probably 10 meters or more up. But you need that at the surface sustained for 1 minute to truly classify as a 2. Cat 2 is sustained at at least 96 mph or 83 knots. I just don't see it. Now if it had looked like this heading to the Yucatan for the first landfall, it's possible based on the rapid response and regeneration once it hit water again that it might have intensified to a 2. I guess there's a remote chance, but I really doubt it.

Yeah you are probably right, I didn't realize that it would be inland so quickly. Topography wont be able to tighten the wind field probably. which is a good thing for folks down there.
Off Topic. Sorry bout your autos, who is responsible for those pumps?

[Steve]

985 extrapolated looks good from that VDM. I was thinking low 980's and possibly as low as 975mb. Outside chance pressure could drop more, but low 970's seems like the absolute limit and pretty unlikely.

[GCANE]

Looks like center of the warm core is high up in altitude, nearly 200mb.
Trying to stay away from the drier air below 500mb.
May make a shot at intensification all the way to the coast.

[Steve]

Looking a bit ominous this morning. Maybe that drier RH will keep it in check but I doubt it.
No signs of destructive shear. Warm SST, favorable UL environment and topography has me thinking CAT 2 but honestly I haven't been able to watch him much today.

I was arguing against that yesterday and last night. I just don't think there is the time. This will landfall probably shortly after midnight and it's not a hurricane yet. I think there's a shot at some Cat 2 gusts out over the Gulf and probably 10 meters or more up. But you need that at the surface sustained for 1 minute to truly classify as a 2. Cat 2 is sustained at at least 96 mph or 83 knots. I just don't see it. Now if it had looked like this heading to the Yucatan for the first landfall, it's possible based on the rapid response and regeneration once it hit water again that it might have intensified to a 2. I guess there's a remote chance, but I really doubt it.

Yeah you are probably right, I didn't realize that it would be inland so quickly. Topography wont be able to tighten the wind field probably. which is a good thing for folks down there.
Off Topic. Sorry bout your autos, who is responsible for those pumps?

Sorry mods for the quick hijack. The Sewage and Water Board. They came out and straight up lied that the pumps were working to capacity. Then they noted that 8 were down, then 12, then 14 then 20. Then they said that they were working to capacity of what was available to try to clarify their obvious lies. That dropped from 56% to 52%. I understand that pumps break, and you can't just run to the store for a 40" gear or whatever. But it's freaking the middle of August. And even though there was no way to stop the latest onslaught of 7.5-9" in 3 hours (we can do 1" an hour and then 1/2 each hour after that), it may have been the difference for some of the people whose homes and cars flooded.

Luckily the Mayor is guillotining all the powers that be over there. I think 3 honchos and their chief spokesperson have been axed so far. I mean this is local stuff, not national. No sense to lie to the public. If the pumps were broken, they should have just said the pumps were working as best as they could, but there were several out waiting on parts.