ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

ViPIR model from WPTV shows a coast eyewall runner from Ft. Meyers to maybe Pasco Co.

not good for storm surge values

The model or the track? Model is alright for local afternoon tstorm radar products but has generally sucked for tropical systems up this way with only a couple of exceptions.

[caneman]

ViPIR model from WPTV shows a coast eyewall runner from Ft. Meyers to maybe Pasco Co.

not good for storm surge values

The model or the track? Model is alright for local afternoon tstorm radar products but has generally sucked for tropical systems up this way with only a couple of exceptions.

Sorry, meant the track. Just woke up. On and off sleep here and there 2 or 3 hours at a time. Reckon in the next several hours it's only going to go downhill

[Steve]

Yeah I hope it weakens some by the time it gets up your way. Stay safe man and hopefully you'll come out of it with just some stories to tell.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can see the clouds now in Georgia...

[NDG]

0z Euro would be very bad for the west coast of FL if it verifies, for wind and surge damage.

Euro loop below, keep in mind timeline is at US central time.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

JT rolling the system along the same track





Tampa hit?

[CronkPSU]

Anyone got the newest GFS?

[Jevo]

I gotta jump on the GFS train right now.. looking at 2 hours of radar... Without a wobble NW its coming in at Summerland Key/7mile bridge going N/NNW extrapolate that motion into Everglades city... maybe Naples. I may be wrong, but Im going solely off radar

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Anyone got the newest GFS?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tbu ... ve=0&run=0

[jlauderdal]

I gotta jump on the GFS train right now.. looking at 2 hours of radar... Without a wobble NW its coming in at Summerland Key/7mile bridge going N/NNW extrapolate that motion into Everglades city... maybe Naples. I may be wrong, but Im going solely off radar

im with you, maybe even east of naples, its an intensifying system and its approaching a landmass after the keys(i dont count the keys or bahamas as landmass) so this could affect the track a little but a little makes a big difference

[CronkPSU]

Anyone got the newest GFS?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tbu ... ve=0&run=0

oof, that path would be terrible for the entire state

[Nimbus]

I gotta jump on the GFS train right now.. looking at 2 hours of radar... Without a wobble NW its coming in at Summerland Key/7mile bridge going N/NNW extrapolate that motion into Everglades city... maybe Naples. I may be wrong, but Im going solely off radar

im with you, maybe even east of naples, its an intensifying system and its approaching a landmass after the keys(i dont count the keys or bahamas as landmass) so this could affect the track a little but a little makes a big difference

Once its over land it at least won't continue to intensify.
The trough is beginning to shear the northwestern side of the circulation.
Maybe later computer model runs will cave to the radar if the current northerly trend continues?
06z GFS looked more reasonable than the 00z Euro this morning.

With half the circulation over the western coast line the winds are coming initially off the coast which reduces storm surge in front of the system.

[tolakram]

Euro ... this would not be good at all, staying offshore and pushing water into Tampa?

[tolakram]

6z GFS

[northjaxpro]

6Z GFS. That is a shift eastward, as compared to the 0Z EURO.

[otowntiger]

:uarrow:
6Z GFS. That is a shift eastward, as compared to the 0Z EURO.

And at the moment it appears to be following the GFS. But we'll see. Not good for us here in Orlando if that plays out but better for Tampa. Just have to wait and see .

[tolakram]

6Z HWRF

[NDG]

Hopefully the latest 06z GFS is still being right biased (though it did great with the track of Irma close to Cuba within 24 hrs), because it tracks it over Plant City instead of Clearwater it shows wind gusts over 100 mph over the Orlando area.

[otowntiger]

Hopefully the latest 06z GFS is still being right biased (though it did great with the track of Irma close to Cuba within 24 hrs), because it tracks it over Plant City instead of Clearwater it shows wind gusts over 100 mph over the Orlando area.

Yep that wouldn't be good for us it that verified but I think the GFS is overdoing the intensity. This would be a far better scenario for Tampa but the NHC gives this no credence apparently. The Euro is dictating their forecast.

[NDG]

Hopefully the latest 06z GFS is still being right biased (though it did great with the track of Irma close to Cuba within 24 hrs), because it tracks it over Plant City instead of Clearwater it shows wind gusts over 100 mph over the Orlando area.

https://i.imgur.com/ghDLYUB.png

Yep that wouldn't be good for us it that verified but I think the GFS is overdoing the intensity. This would be a far better scenario for Tampa but the NHC gives this no credence apparently. The Euro is dictating their forecast.

I would not doubt those wind gusts by no means if the GFS verifies, even the Euro shows 80-90 mph wind gusts for this area with its track further west. Irma will be expanding when it starts reaching our area so those winds will expand. IMO.