ATL: IRMA - Models

[tallywx]

Euro actually west at Hour 30. Slightly off of St. Pete as opposed to Tampa.

[Steve]

It's at least partially along the coast at 24 hours. Maybe a hair West of VIPIR - looks like a coast runner on that 24 hour jump.

[Steve]

Euro actually west at Hour 30. Slightly off of St. Pete as opposed to Tampa.

Slightly off so no real landfalls but lots of coastal destruction with a large swath of populated coastline taking that 4 then 3 eyewall. I wonder if it comes in at all until like Carabelle or Alligator Point or maybe around Lake City. Interested to hear 36.

[pcolaman]

Looks like up near the Big Bend area

[Steve]

Looks like it must come in around Perry or Cross City based on the 48 hour line. I wouldn't have called that. Probably a Cat 2 up that way.

Ensembles had a lot of NE Gulf solutions at 12z. Euro vs GFS again. By the way that TV ViPIR model is insane. 4 up the coast until around Tampa then 3 up the coast until landfall. Kind of overdoing it but that would be something.

[MrJames]

Looks like landfall SW of Perry

[pcolaman]

Looks like more closer to Apalachicola

[MrJames]

[p1nheadlarry]

Looks like more closer to Apalachicola

It's east of Apalachicola. Carabelle, Panacea, Alligator Point. Where Hermine hit.

[pcolaman]

So 2 days out till northern gulf Coast . So possible shift towards the west later?

[p1nheadlarry]

So 2 days out till northern gulf Coast . So possible shift towards the west later?

Depends on the short-term from Irma. I say if the eye comes in west of KW, something like this could verify. And it could very well be stronger than what the Euro shows. It's already nearly sub-930 and I fully expect to wake up to a monster.

[Blown Away]

00z HWRF shifted E through 24 hours...

[Alyono]

EC makes landfall near Sarasota after missing Charlotte harbor by less than 5 miles. It then moves back offshore for a final landfall in the Big Bend as a weakening hurricane. EC pressure manages to get down into the 930s

[Stormcenter]

That's a pretty significant shift west.

EC makes landfall near Sarasota after missing Charlotte harbor by less than 5 miles. It then moves back offshore for a final landfall in the Big Bend as a weakening hurricane. EC pressure manages to get down into the 930s

[bamajammer4eva]

Wow looks like Hermine 2.0

[CronkPSU]

What are we supposed to do with that Euro pressure? It starts at 960 when in reality it is already 930 but it drops like 25mbs...do we go with that kind of deepening and forecast 910ish?

[MrJames]

UKMet crosses the Keys 10 miles west of Marathon. At this point Irma would have to travel NNE make that.

[AtlanticWind]

Ukmet shifted east
GFS a smidgen east
HWRF same
Euro a little west

[Evil Jeremy]

Ukmet shifted east
GFS a smidgen east
HWRF same
Euro a little west

Actually HWRF also moved a smudge east, now showing landfall before 82W.

[caneman]

ViPIR model from WPTV shows a coast eyewall runner from Ft. Meyers to maybe Pasco Co.

not good for storm surge values