ATL: IRMA - Models

[NFLnut]

Ukmet looks weird...but gfs shifted east too so who knows. It's initialized too high though on pressure and wind. Of note Is it no longer calls for strengthening...just stasis.

GFS teased us all for a time, but it was mostly garbage this time around. There are certainly worse (WAY worse) models out there, but I wouldn't pay very much attention to it at this point.

[Steve]

Another piece of the puzzle related to the trough is it has kept the temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler here in the western panhandle (down to low 60s at night), so as it tracks north, that cooler dryer air is sucked in likely dropping the intensity further.
While GFS shows the pressure drop, and other models leveling off around 920-950, in my opinion this should start affecting it soon as the upper level cooler air helps weaken it slightly before mainland landfall, meaning slightly elevated pressure as it heads north-ish, not dropping pressure. This could be a possibility to help lessen the impact in the northern end of the state, IF it happens soon enough.
Granted the sheer size and power of this storm may mean it brushes it off and keeps the power running all the way into GA.

The hurricane models drop the pressure too. The thing with that camp is there is only limited time to do it - 18 or 24 hours max. It's going to weaken at some point above 25N even if it never landfalls until the NE Gulf (link below).

GFS eventually bumps Jose into the Outer Banks, he tries to get out and get pushed back toward the ocean where he sits over the Gulf Stream, pressure drops down to 920 and then short cuts to New Jersey. ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

[PTrackerLA]

IMO UKmet did very well sniffing out the western Florida solution while the rest of the models were on the east coast or offshore. This model really performs well track-wise in this part of the basin. We all know it nailed Matthew.

[Evil Jeremy]

HWRF also nudged east a smidge in it's approach to SW FL, but the difference isn't very notable. Curious what ECMWF does

[tolakram]

HWRF doesn't strengthen Irma much either, more realistic IMO.

[South Texas Storms]

IMO UKmet did very well sniffing out the western Florida solution while the rest of the models were on the east coast or offshore. This model really performs well track-wise in this part of the basin. We all know it nailed Matthew.

Yep I think the UKMET is one of the best models, right up there with the Euro. It's really impressed me over the past few years.

[Blown Away]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 80.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2017 0 23.6N 80.5W 938 89
1200UTC 10.09.2017 12 24.7N 81.2W 939 87
0000UTC 11.09.2017 24 26.9N 81.4W 944 76
1200UTC 11.09.2017 36 29.7N 82.4W 964 64
0000UTC 12.09.2017 48 32.5N 83.8W 984 38
1200UTC 12.09.2017 60 34.9N 86.1W 997 22
0000UTC 13.09.2017 72 35.8N 88.7W 1001 14
1200UTC 13.09.2017 84 35.4N 90.0W 1005 16
0000UTC 14.09.2017 96 CEASED TRACKING

Is this correct? That's a big shift E over peninsula?

[Evil Jeremy]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 80.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2017 0 23.6N 80.5W 938 89
1200UTC 10.09.2017 12 24.7N 81.2W 939 87
0000UTC 11.09.2017 24 26.9N 81.4W 944 76
1200UTC 11.09.2017 36 29.7N 82.4W 964 64
0000UTC 12.09.2017 48 32.5N 83.8W 984 38
1200UTC 12.09.2017 60 34.9N 86.1W 997 22
0000UTC 13.09.2017 72 35.8N 88.7W 1001 14
1200UTC 13.09.2017 84 35.4N 90.0W 1005 16
0000UTC 14.09.2017 96 CEASED TRACKING

Is this correct? That's a big shift E over peninsula?

It's a decent sized shift. Puts it on the right side of the consensus. If it verifies, SE FL would see sustained Cat 1 winds.

[brghteys1216]

Let's see if ECMWF shifts east but I definitely trust the UKMET with track it's been amazing with Irma. Was even the first to hit at a west peninsula hit.

[pokkeherrie]

Ukmet track is brutal for SE FL if verifies.

[bamajammer4eva]

Another piece of the puzzle related to the trough is it has kept the temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler here in the western panhandle (down to low 60s at night), so as it tracks north, that cooler dryer air is sucked in likely dropping the intensity further.
While GFS shows the pressure drop, and other models leveling off around 920-950, in my opinion this should start affecting it soon as the upper level cooler air helps weaken it slightly before mainland landfall, meaning slightly elevated pressure as it heads north-ish, not dropping pressure. This could be a possibility to help lessen the impact in the northern end of the state, IF it happens soon enough.
Granted the sheer size and power of this storm may mean it brushes it off and keeps the power running all the way into GA.

I would think that cooler air like we've been having SHOULD accelerate weakening by the time this gets towards the Northern areas of the Gulf. We are in tropical storm warnings with highs expected to remain steady in the lower 60s and lows Monday night in the upper 50s. Lower 60s for highs are unheard of down here just a week after Labor Day!

I'm wondering about the Euro wind maps. I remember reading on the Windy.TV site that gusts on the Euro should not be used because they are not accurate. I know many are posting wind maps on here and Twitter and they have hurricane force winds in this area yet NWS and TWC only forecasts 50 mph gusts. I'm wondering if Euro is erroring high on wind gusts like GFS is erroring low on pressures.

[jhpigott]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 80.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2017 0 23.6N 80.5W 938 89
1200UTC 10.09.2017 12 24.7N 81.2W 939 87
0000UTC 11.09.2017 24 26.9N 81.4W 944 76
1200UTC 11.09.2017 36 29.7N 82.4W 964 64
0000UTC 12.09.2017 48 32.5N 83.8W 984 38
1200UTC 12.09.2017 60 34.9N 86.1W 997 22
0000UTC 13.09.2017 72 35.8N 88.7W 1001 14
1200UTC 13.09.2017 84 35.4N 90.0W 1005 16
0000UTC 14.09.2017 96 CEASED TRACKING

Is this correct? That's a big shift E over peninsula?

Whoa, looks to pass Lake O just to the West. If that verified I would think our weather here i N. Palm Beach County would be a little uglier

[Blown Away]

Yep, Ukmet goes E over 7 mile bridge, then E of Everglades City, up to just W of Lake O... SFWMD updated the "plot map" for verification...
https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhyd ... rm_display

[skillz]

Giving me goosebumps I Live in central Florida. Vero. Ive had a gut wrenching feeling this hurricane might somehow track way East after landfall. Now the UKMET made me wanna puke after all the accuracy it's been forcasting.

[Blown Away]

Also, 00z GFS from @hours 12-24 it was E of 18z and had an E bump over peninsula just W of Lake O...

[Steve]

ViPIR model from WPTV shows a coast eyewall runner from Ft. Meyers to maybe Pasco Co.

[jhpigott]

Euro running yet?

[Evil Jeremy]

Euro running yet?

It initialized, and has been taking it's time to spit out the 24 hour frame.

[wxmann_91]

0Z Euro initialized. A touch north than yesterday's 0Z run at 24 hr.

[Steve]

Euro running yet?

Yeah. Initial is out at 960 on low res 24 hour run. You'll need access to the pay versions for shorter plot times.