ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Kingarabian]

Lifting out @ hr 168. Ridge looks weaker or displaced.

@ hour 174 the ridge appears to be building back in.

[Kingarabian]

[gatorcane]

192 hours. Now we are getting in the inaccurate zone of the Euro but TS in SE Bahamas with building Bermuda High

[blp]

This might end up in the SE Bahamas again this run but using the Caribbean route this time.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro hour 192:

[Alyono]

heads up, we're discussing the wave at 35W in TT. 91L dissipates in the EC this run

[gatorcane]

We have a thread on this system the Euro is showing:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118963

[Kingarabian]

heads up, we're discussing the wave at 35W in TT. 91L dissipates in the EC this run

It's not 91L?

[tolakram]

heads up, we're discussing the wave at 35W in TT. 91L dissipates in the EC this run

It's not 91L?

Depends on the NHC, but it appears to be the wave in front of 91L and two separate storms develop.

[gatorcane]

216 hours heading WNW:

[Ivanhater]

restrengthening and looks to be headed for the straits again...

[Kingarabian]

heads up, we're discussing the wave at 35W in TT. 91L dissipates in the EC this run

It's not 91L?

Depends on the NHC, but it appears to be the wave in front of 91L and two separate storms develop.

Thank you. You can delete my posts since it's likely the wrong system.

[gatorcane]

Weakness over Florida...may hit a South Florida from the south.

[floridasun78]

this one you talking about one not far from leewards islands i talk to nhc that i have their number their told me that dont have low lower level atmosphere that why nhc not put circle yet their interest 91l

[Kingarabian]

Down to 998mb over the straits with a stout Bermuda high.

[WAcyclone]

on the full res EC, it gets down to 991mb and makes a direct hit on Dominica

Looks like it makes landfall on Martinique as a strong tropical storm on the full resolution ECMWF: See this link

[blp]

So might end up in same spot as last run but using a different route through Caribbean and a different vorticity.

To me the take away is the upper environment being forecast which is still hinting at a landfall threat to the islands and possbily SE coast. With a strong ridge building in later in the forecast period.

[floridasun78]

192 hours. Now we are getting in the inaccurate zone of the Euro but TS in SE Bahamas with building Bermuda High

i seen alot tropical system do that reform in Bahamas after hitting Hispaniola

[WeatherEmperor]

Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

Doesn't look like it'll clear Florida on this run as @ hr 228 it's still moving NW although slower.