ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061951
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 24 20160606
194130 2851N 08524W 8433 01520 0035 +182 +175 137009 010 006 000 00
194200 2850N 08525W 8433 01519 0032 +184 +167 136009 010 007 001 00
194230 2849N 08527W 8433 01519 0033 +184 +172 139007 008 006 000 00
194300 2847N 08528W 8433 01520 0030 +189 +174 145005 007 007 000 00
194330 2846N 08529W 8432 01520 0026 +195 +170 179003 005 007 000 03
194400 2845N 08531W 8426 01525 0023 +201 +165 170003 003 006 000 00
194430 2845N 08532W 8433 01519 0023 +201 +164 161002 002 007 000 00
194500 2844N 08534W 8432 01520 0024 +203 +160 099001 002 007 001 03
194530 2844N 08536W 8432 01520 0023 +201 +161 063001 001 008 001 00
194600 2842N 08537W 8433 01519 0023 +200 +161 353001 001 008 000 00
194630 2841N 08539W 8432 01520 0025 +199 +161 004001 002 008 000 00
194700 2840N 08540W 8433 01519 0024 +198 +160 001002 002 007 000 00
194730 2839N 08541W 8433 01519 0023 +204 +151 000002 003 009 000 03
194800 2838N 08543W 8432 01520 0023 +204 +150 347003 003 009 000 00
194830 2836N 08544W 8433 01519 0024 +204 +151 343004 005 010 000 00
194900 2835N 08545W 8433 01520 0023 +203 +151 340005 006 010 000 00
194930 2834N 08547W 8436 01518 0022 +205 +151 342006 008 007 000 00
195000 2833N 08548W 8433 01519 0020 +209 +146 357008 008 007 001 00
195030 2832N 08549W 8434 01519 0022 +210 +145 359009 009 006 000 00
195100 2830N 08551W 8432 01520 0020 +210 +144 357009 009 005 001 00
$$
;

Seems to be an LLC at 28.7N 85.6W.

[stormhunter7]

looks like recon hit a coc around 28.733N 85.600W. Maybe 1002-1003mb?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062001
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 25 20160606
195130 2829N 08552W 8433 01519 0022 +207 +144 355007 008 006 000 00
195200 2828N 08553W 8434 01518 0021 +205 +141 355008 009 006 000 00
195230 2827N 08555W 8432 01519 0021 +205 +139 359009 009 008 001 00
195300 2825N 08556W 8437 01515 0022 +205 +139 355009 010 006 001 00
195330 2824N 08557W 8433 01520 0023 +205 +133 358011 011 005 001 00
195400 2823N 08559W 8432 01521 0024 +205 +128 358012 012 008 002 00
195430 2822N 08600W 8433 01519 0023 +207 +125 000011 012 005 001 00
195500 2820N 08601W 8433 01519 0024 +210 +117 000011 011 006 000 00
195530 2819N 08603W 8433 01519 0024 +209 +116 004011 011 003 000 00
195600 2818N 08604W 8433 01521 0025 +205 +128 007009 011 005 000 03
195630 2816N 08605W 8431 01519 0023 +205 +131 335006 008 /// /// 03
195700 2816N 08603W 8432 01523 0024 +205 +134 295005 005 009 001 00
195730 2816N 08601W 8434 01518 0024 +205 +138 294006 007 007 000 00
195800 2815N 08559W 8433 01519 0024 +205 +134 289007 007 004 000 00
195830 2815N 08557W 8433 01518 0024 +202 +146 272008 008 006 001 00
195900 2815N 08555W 8433 01518 0023 +200 +144 272007 008 006 001 00
195930 2815N 08554W 8433 01518 0025 +199 +145 269008 009 007 001 00
200000 2815N 08552W 8434 01518 0028 +195 +146 263009 009 007 000 00
200030 2815N 08550W 8433 01517 0028 +191 +144 257010 011 004 000 00
200100 2815N 08548W 8432 01515 0027 +189 +148 259013 014 005 001 00
$$
;

[Nimbus]

In Tarpon Springs they ordered an evacuation due to the expectation the Anclote river would reach flood stage.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogra ... gage=ELFF1

Good practice though..

[Bocadude85]

Confirmed tornado on the ground in the Fort Myers area.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
410 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

FLC071-062030-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-160606T2030Z/
LEE FL-
410 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL LEE COUNTY...

AT 408 PM EDT...A SPOTTER REPORTED SEEING A WATERSPOUT COME ONSHORE
AT BONITA BEACH AND MOVE INLAND INTO LEE COUNTY AS A TORNADO. THE
SPOTTER REPORTED THAT THE TORNADO WAS RAIN WRAPPED AND IT WAS
DIFFICULT TO SEE IF THE TORNADO WAS STILL ON THE GROUND. MOTION IS
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
THREE OAKS AROUND 420 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
ESTERO.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062011
AF307 0303A COLIN HDOB 26 20160606
200130 2814N 08546W 8433 01514 0025 +194 +144 253014 015 003 000 00
200200 2814N 08544W 8433 01514 0023 +194 +142 249016 017 005 000 00
200230 2814N 08542W 8433 01514 0025 +190 +142 245016 017 005 000 00
200300 2814N 08540W 8433 01510 0020 +192 +132 244018 019 005 000 00
200330 2814N 08538W 8433 01503 0015 +194 +138 240020 020 007 000 00
200400 2814N 08536W 8434 01502 0015 +189 +145 234021 022 008 000 00
200430 2813N 08534W 8432 01508 0020 +184 +158 229024 025 008 000 00
200500 2813N 08532W 8435 01506 0021 +182 +170 229023 026 008 001 00
200530 2813N 08530W 8432 01509 0021 +186 +169 225024 025 008 001 03
200600 2815N 08529W 8436 01508 0023 +181 +178 218023 025 /// /// 03
200630 2816N 08530W 8430 01514 0021 +192 +151 223018 022 006 000 00
200700 2817N 08531W 8434 01510 0024 +187 +153 229017 019 006 000 00
200730 2818N 08533W 8433 01514 0023 +193 +139 234014 016 007 000 00
200800 2819N 08534W 8434 01513 0018 +195 +137 248012 014 006 000 03
200830 2820N 08536W 8241 01700 9997 +203 +123 307008 011 007 001 00
200900 2821N 08537W 7999 01958 9997 +192 +104 345006 009 007 000 00
200930 2822N 08539W 7722 02263 0003 +164 +100 346004 005 006 000 00
201000 2823N 08541W 7427 02594 0003 +144 +096 311009 012 007 000 00
201030 2824N 08542W 7140 02926 0001 +127 +072 308011 012 007 000 00
201100 2826N 08544W 6876 03253 0010 +105 +068 311015 017 006 000 00
$$
;

Mission over.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 062007
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032016
A. 06/19:45:40Z
B. 28 deg 43 min N
085 deg 36 min W
C. 850 mb 1450 m
D. 26 kt
E. 083 deg 72 nm
F. 179 deg 49 kt
G. 086 deg 129 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 17 C / 1517 m
J. 21 C / 1518 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF307 0303A COLIN OB 11
MAX FL WIND 49 KT 086 / 129 NM 19:05:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 095 / 8 KT
;

[psyclone]

Winds have definitely come up some from this morning. they were very light outside of the bands but they're probably 20-25mph here now.. nothing impressive but i'm hidden among a heavy tree canopy. no doubt it's nasty over the marine areas. The mega band from earlier left a mark. I saw some downed limbs in Clearwater and some sporadic power outages. It's been a long time since we've had heavy storms or any wind of consequence around here so there's plenty of shake-able junk in the trees.

[Steve]

Why is everyone complaining how ugly the storm is? We had a general idea it was going to be a sheared mess before it even formed...

Yeah, that was kind of the point. It wasn't going to be an annular cane or one of those satanic pentagram eyes. I guess it's because it's the internet where anyone can say almost anything. Stay safe btw.

[ObsessedMiami]

Sunny, breezy dp 75 in FLL, no rain in sight

Our rain is coming. It's pushing inland right now. It'll probably be in the Dade and Broward Metro by rush hour. Have fun on the roads in South Florida this evening

at least this line looks like it might just graze the metro area. Seems like a dry spell after this line.

[caneman]

Who cares what the heck it looks,like. It's causing coastal flooding. Flooding of the manatee and anclote rivers. It's probably a little more than you'd expect from a June storm especially coupled wit the astronomical high tide. Madeira and Irb are left with no beaches and massive beach erosion. I'm sure other beaches too.

[chaser1]

Tropical Cyclone humor - Colin, the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Name list just called...... they'd like their name back.

On a more tropical note, anyone notice the tropical disturbance (that looks like a T.D.) in the East Pac? Looks like its caught up in Colin's broad cyclonic flow as it moves northward toward the Mexican coast. Could this be #4 for "Team - Atlantic"? Looks to me like it wants to make a run for the S. Gulf. I didn't see any models calling for this but just seeing what my eyes are tellin' me.

[caneman]

Not finding the humor funny. This has caused massive beach erosion to our beautiful beaches, coastal flooding, rivers are cresting their banks, seawalls have been breached, stree flooding. A beach I go to has no beach left. It's more than you'd expect from a 50 mph t..s. and looks wise it's about what you'd expect out of a early June storm. I honestly thought it would be nothing but it's causing more damage than i thought it would. Likely due to the unfortunate timing of an astronomical high tide. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess you don't live here so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

[psyclone]

A south wind will really gnaw the beaches on the west coast. i'm curious as to how the beach renourishment project at honeymoon is holding up. I suspect the permanent jetties constructed will really help the cause. that area lost up to 5' of sand last year in a non designated disturbance so it doesn't take much to move sand around here.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

...HEAVY RAINS FROM COLIN SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 85.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northeastward to
Oregon Inlet North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 85.5 West. Colin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
tonight and Tuesday. On this track, the center of Colin is
forecast to move onshore of the Florida Big Bend area this evening,
then move across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia through
early Tuesday morning, and move near or over the southeastern coast
of the United States Tuesday. However, it's important to note that
the strongest winds and heaviest rains are well removed from the
center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
to the southeast of the center. A NOAA coastal marine observing
site at Venice, Florida recently reported sustained winds of
44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the
northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas through
Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the
Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina within the tropical
storm warning area.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Brief squalls with winds to near tropical storm force will
be moving through portions of South Florida through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
warning area along the west coast of the Florida peninsula through
the evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the
warning area along the Atlantic coast by overnight tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

Colin does not look much like a tropical cyclone in satellite
imagery this afternoon. The center remains well removed from the
showers and thunderstorms, and the reconnaissance aircraft data has
found the strongest winds about 200 n mi southeast of the center.
The highest flight level winds measured by the aircraft have been
63 kt with SFMR surface winds of 40 kt. Since the plane did not
fully sample the convective band, the initial intensity is kept at
45 kt. The global models continue to significantly deepen the
cyclone during the next 24 to 48 hours, which is likely due to the
interaction of the system with a mid- to upper-level trough that is
currently moving southeastward over the Midwest. The intensity
forecast calls for an increase in wind speed during the next 24
to 36 hours, then gradual weakening as an extratropical cyclone
after day 2.

Colin's initial motion is north-northeastward, or 030/20 kt.
The cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward as it moves
along the coast of the southeastern United States later tonight
and Tuesday. A continued rapid northeastward motion is expected as
the cyclone moves over the North Atlantic within strong
southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. The
track guidance has changed little during first 24 to 36 h, but
has shifted northwestward after that time. The NHC forecast has
been adjusted accordingly, and is closest to the 12z ECMWF.

Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from
the center of Colin, it is important to not focus on the exact
forecast track, or on the time or location of landfall. Heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding are already affecting
much of Florida and portions of the southeast United States.

It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical
cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this
case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on
the post-tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 28.8N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 31.7N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1800Z 35.2N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 08/0600Z 39.4N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 08/1800Z 43.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z 48.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z 53.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 56.5N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[caneman]

It doesn't take much on the west coast to cause a lot of damage. That's for sure. The astronomical high tide didn't help matters

[psyclone]

Just looking at the visible satellite loop...you can see the back edge of the dense cloud cover quickly pivoting eastward. I would not be shocked if we're able to see the sunset this evening. there's at least a decent possibility barring another convective blow up.

[StormTracker]

If we're lucky, we'll get a sprinkle or two down here! I was hoping for some good rain for my lawn & landscaping. Oh well, time to break out the sprinklers(AGAIN)!

[caneman]

Ill take the sunset. It's moving on quickly now. As of 2 we had 4 to 5 inches of rain already. Not sure how much now.

[psyclone]

the rain is a blessing. much needed and the ground is just slurping it up.