ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Live Visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=37&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

[Jimsot]

Live Visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=37&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

I have friends in Chincoteague, VA, doubt they are enjoying a beach holiday this labor day.

[Happy Pelican]

Here on Long Island, I am going through a mental checklist of what I need, but I'm very surprised they didn't issue a TS Warning yet! Do you guys think they will extend the TS Warning into LI in the 11AM update?

We took Sandy on the chin too. Way too much complacency here on the barriers from tourists and local officials ( and our MIA Gov). Locals seem to smoking around
But too many feel if they survived Sandy, this will be nothing.

[otterlyspicey]

For a storm that will supposedly be incredibly destructive on the coast from Virginia up to Long Island, and be even worse that what it caused in Florida (according to The Weather Channel, so people should be seeing the message)... it seems awful quiet both online and in the general public. Either people just don't care, or still don't know.

[wxman57]

I know that the NHC 11pm update says that the wind speed is 50mph, but i have been watching the wind speed maps for the last 2.5 hours, and I haven't seen anything, even offshore, over 37.4.

Everyone here needs to remember that with tropical cyclones (or ET ones now, like Hermine appears to be), the winds reported are maximum sustained winds, not average winds around the storm. These max sustained winds may be in only a small part of the storm, perhaps far from the center, covering only a few square miles. The average winds around the center may be quite a bit lower than the max winds. It's rare that the area of max winds will pass over a recording station, making it difficult to assess the true max sustained wind by looking at surface obs. This is particularly true of disorganized storms like Hermine.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow it's very surprising at how the posting on this forum thread has almost stopped. You would think think the storm was 100% over or something. Probably making all of the those on the east coast that will get the heavy rains and beach erosion feeling left out. Ugh...

[otterlyspicey]

Wow big shift east on the latest NHC cone... Jersey not even in it at this point.

[weathaguyry]

Well, I am very glad that we are under a TS Warning now, so this way they may be able to be posted on the electronic highway sign, and the word out

[Blinhart]

I have to admit that I was wrong for criticizing certain NHC employees and I deserve the 1 day ban I got, I should definitely give them the credit they are due.

I too am surprised by how quite this board has gotten especially since this has a chance of still hitting LI as a Cat. 1.

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016

Satellite imagery indicates that Hermine has become a post-tropical
cyclone, with the coldest convective tops now located more than 200
n mi northeast of the exposed center. Despite this change in
structure, surface data from the Outer Banks indicate that some
strong winds persist near the center, and the initial intensity is
set to 55 kt for this advisory. During the next 48 to 72 hours,
Hermine will interact with a strong mid-latitude shortwave trough
and all of the global models show the system re-intensifying during
that time and a redevelopment of a stronger inner core, albeit one
situated underneath an upper-level low. Regardless of its final
structure, Hermine is expected to remain a dangerous cyclone through
the 5 day period.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 060/14. Hermine
should continue moving northeastward in deep-layer southwesterly
flow through 24 hours and then meander generally northward from 36
to 72 hours while the cyclone deepens beneath the upper-level low.
Late in the period, the guidance is in generally good agreement
showing a steadier motion toward the northeast, although there is
significant spread. The new NHC forecast is generally close to the
previous one and is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF through 3
days, and then favors the guidance that is a bit faster and farther
north at days 4 and 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will
result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the
mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the
holiday weekend.

2. Although Hermine has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as
long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.

3. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding
Graphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical
cyclone. The wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by
the P-surge model and as a result, recent Flooding Graphics have
understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas northward. NHC
will be discontinuing runs of the P-surge model for Hermine with
this advisory. The NWS is attempting to substitute the GFS ensemble
system for P-surge for the next issuance of the Potential Storm
Surge Flooding Graphic, to provide a more realistic depiction of the
threat. If this effort is unsuccessful, issuance of the Potential
Storm Surge Flooding Graphic for Hermine will also be discontinued.

4. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic does account for
the current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately
identifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge.
This graphic will continue to be produced for Hermine.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 36.1N 75.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/0000Z 37.1N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 04/1200Z 37.9N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 05/0000Z 38.4N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/1200Z 38.7N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 06/1200Z 39.5N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 07/1200Z 40.4N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 08/1200Z 41.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[toad strangler]

I have to admit that I was wrong for criticizing certain NHC employees and I deserve the 1 day ban I got, I should definitely give them the credit they are due.

I too am surprised by how quite this board has gotten especially since this has a chance of still hitting LI as a Cat. 1.

More than likely coastal flooding and beach erosion will be very big factors. Heavy rains and high winds aside from some immediate coastal areas in NJ and LI not so much. THIS is why it's probably so quiet. Most folks are inland somewhat.

[weathaguyry]

I have to admit that I was wrong for criticizing certain NHC employees and I deserve the 1 day ban I got, I should definitely give them the credit they are due.

I too am surprised by how quite this board has gotten especially since this has a chance of still hitting LI as a Cat. 1.

More than likely coastal flooding and beach erosion will be very big factors. Heavy rains and high winds aside from some immediate coastal areas in NJ and LI not so much. THIS is why it's probably so quiet. Most folks are inland somewhat.

Well, I will be reporting the storm from coastal Southern Long Island, which got destroyed in Sandy, I just think that we don't have that many users in the NJ/NY area, so not as many users are being affected as when Hermine made landfall in FL, where you couldn't go 20 seconds without a new post

[Blinhart]

When was the last time we had a true Post-Tropical Hurricane?

[Kazmit]

Since Hermine's ET, the wind field is growing. This isn't good... it could have quite widespread impacts across the Northeastern states.

[otterlyspicey]

I am getting WAY too excited for the breezy gusts we are having in DC. Nothing to write home about other than the fact they are breezes/gusts aided by Hermine.

[mitchell]

5+ feet of tidal surge with much larger waves on top of the surge soould always get beachfront evacuations

I agree, I haven't seen any official forecasts for 5+ feet of tidal surge in Maryland, Delaware, or New Jersey. I'll admit, its a bit hard navigating the NOAA tidal departure (surge) site, but the most I could find were stations at the mouth of the Delaware Bay, and the Jersey coast that were forecast to have about a 3-4 foot surge. by the late Sunday/early Monday period.

[Jimsot]

It is going to have to keep growing that wind field to the NW and SW for the winds to still make it onshore as it is moving away from the coast to the north east at a pretty good clip.

[Hurricane Andrew]

When was the last time we had a true Post-Tropical Hurricane?

Sandy in 2012...?

[OBXterra]

Southern Shores, NC. Still blowing 56 -72.5 MPH now out of the N. Previous post may have neglected to state out of the NE. Someone remind me, this isn't a Hurricane? Local wind speeds exceed what I remember from Isabel.

[Airboy]

Is it harder for a post-tropical storm to go back to being a tropical storm again than a wave/disturbance to become a TD? (in the same environment)