ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[ouragans]

Did you notice 92L was not on ATCF anymore since this morning?

[alienstorm]

he invest is being deactivated.

[LarryWx]

he invest is being deactivated.

Are we back to this just being a pouch?

[tolakram]

Sat pics: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/NATURALCOLOR/FULLRESOLUTION/index.htm

[Gustywind]

WEATHER WATCH: New tropical wave off Africa must be watched. Could become a hurricane before reaching Lesser Antilles
29 Aug 2016 |
Published in Soualiga News
http://www.soualiganewsday.com/local/so ... illes.html |

SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN - A tropical wave is expected to move off of the coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantictonight (Monday) according to Crown Weather.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for this tropical wave to slowly develop during the middle and last part of this week. This is a tropical wave that will need to be monitored very closely as the upper level pattern is favorable for this system to not only become a tropical storm and possibly even a hurricane, but also be driven westward underneath a large area of high pressure.

“In particular, those of you in the northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should closely monitor this new tropical wave as it is currently forecast to move across these areas aroundnext Monday.

“At this point, I want to see how organized this tropical wave is when it moves into the eastern Atlantic and then go from there. If we do see a large ridge of high pressure set up across the Atlantic, then this is a system that may really need to be watched, not only for the eastern Caribbean, but also for the Bahamas and the US East Coast. For now, however, it is something to just watch,” Crown Weather concludes.

[cycloneye]

As members have mentined,Invest 92L is not at ATCF this morning but it may be a brief glitch and return later so we will stick here.

[Gustywind]

Invest 92L Near Coast of Africa Could Develop Into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... -september
Published:

Aug 30 2016 12:00 AM EDT

By Chris Dolce

weather.com

Story Highlights

Another tropical wave has emerged from the African coast and may develop this week.

Details on potential land impacts, if any, in the Caribbean or elsewhere are far too early to call.

Another tropical wave has emerged off the African coast this week, and it will be an area to watch closely for the foreseeable future as it plows westward across the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the tropical wave was located near the Cabo Verde Islands. As of Tuesday morning, the NHC said that the system had a 40 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the next five days.

This system has been dubbed Invest 92L, which is a designation the NHC gives to areas of interest that have any potential to develop down the road.

Where Is It Headed and Is It a Threat?

It's far too early to know whether this system will eventually threaten any land in a significant way. This, of course, assumes it will develop in the first place as computer model forecast guidance had suggested for the last few days.

Therefore, interests in the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this potential system throughout the week ahead. Any potential impact would not arrive in parts of the Lesser Antilles until late this weekend or early next week.

It's also possible that it gains enough latitude while moving west-northwest in the Atlantic to avoid any brush with the Caribbean Islands.

Beyond that point, it's too early to speculate on any areas farther west that could be affected downnext week.

Always keep in mind that forecasting the track and intensity of any tropical cyclone or potential tropical cyclone can be extremely challenging, even just days in advance.

Since we are talking about a situation that is a week or more out in time, there are many unknown variables down the road, including:
•How much dry air and wind shear could impede development.
•What the steering wind flow aloft will be near the East Coast of the U.S. and western Atlantic Ocean.

It's also a reminder that we are now in the climatologically most active time of the Atlantic hurricane season.
This time of year, tropical waves, also known as African easterly waves, line up over Africa south of the Sahara Desert, and emerge into the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A fraction of these tropical waves serve as the seed for an Atlantic basin tropical storm or hurricane each season.

Regardless of whether this system becomes a threat, now is a good time to make sure you have a plan before a hurricane hits.

The atmospheric pattern this week will feature the Bermuda-Azores high becoming stronger and building westward across the Atlantic Ocean.

This will steer 92L toward the west or west-northwest on the southern periphery of the aforementioned central Atlantic high.

Essentially, there is no escape route for this system to move northwest and then north into the central Atlantic, as occurred with Hurricane Gaston.

[LarryWx]

This satellite loop shows nothing too organized from what I can tell:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

The main question regarding threats to land is how strongly it will eventually develop as opposed to track, which would very likely threaten.

[Gustywind]

UPDATE WEATHER WATCH: Low pressure system to the East could develop quickly while passing over Lesser Antilles
30 Aug 2016 |
Published in Soualiga News |
http://www.soualiganewsday.com/local/so ... illes.html

SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN - An area of low pressure is now located in the eastern Atlantic and is now designated Invest 92-L, according to Crown Weather on Tuesday morning.

“The thunderstorm activity around this system has weakened quite a bit and this is normal when tropical waves first move into the eastern Atlantic from the African continent.

“It is forecast that Invest 92-L will quickly move to the west at 20 mph over the next several days and this quick forward motion is likely to lead to very slow development. In addition, a large plume of dry air is located very close to Invest 92-L and this will also slow down any development. At this point, I think that it may be several days until we see this system start to develop.

“At this point, the model consensus is for Invest 92-L to not develop until it moves past 50 West Longitude this weekend. This means that this system may be developing and intensifying as it’s passing over the northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday night and Monday.

“Bottom line is that this is a system to keep an eye on, however, any development of it will be very slow to occur. One thing to keep in mind though is that it still looks like that a large ridge of high pressure could guide this system across the entire Atlantic. So, everyone across the eastern and north-eastern Caribbean, the Bahamas and the US East Coast should just keep an eye on Invest 92-L for now,” Crown Weather concludes.

[crownweather]

Hey, cool!! We were quoted in that article.

UPDATE WEATHER WATCH: Low pressure system to the East could develop quickly while passing over Lesser Antilles
30 Aug 2016 |
Published in Soualiga News |
http://www.soualiganewsday.com/local/so ... illes.html

SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN - An area of low pressure is now located in the eastern Atlantic and is now designated Invest 92-L, according to Crown Weather on Tuesday morning.

“The thunderstorm activity around this system has weakened quite a bit and this is normal when tropical waves first move into the eastern Atlantic from the African continent.

“It is forecast that Invest 92-L will quickly move to the west at 20 mph over the next several days and this quick forward motion is likely to lead to very slow development. In addition, a large plume of dry air is located very close to Invest 92-L and this will also slow down any development. At this point, I think that it may be several days until we see this system start to develop.

“At this point, the model consensus is for Invest 92-L to not develop until it moves past 50 West Longitude this weekend. This means that this system may be developing and intensifying as it’s passing over the northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday night and Monday.

“Bottom line is that this is a system to keep an eye on, however, any development of it will be very slow to occur. One thing to keep in mind though is that it still looks like that a large ridge of high pressure could guide this system across the entire Atlantic. So, everyone across the eastern and north-eastern Caribbean, the Bahamas and the US East Coast should just keep an eye on Invest 92-L for now,” Crown Weather concludes.

[Gustywind]

Hey, cool!! We were quoted in that article.

UPDATE WEATHER WATCH: Low pressure system to the East could develop quickly while passing over Lesser Antilles
30 Aug 2016 |
Published in Soualiga News |
http://www.soualiganewsday.com/local/so ... illes.html

SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN - An area of low pressure is now located in the eastern Atlantic and is now designated Invest 92-L, according to Crown Weather on Tuesday morning.

“The thunderstorm activity around this system has weakened quite a bit and this is normal when tropical waves first move into the eastern Atlantic from the African continent.

“It is forecast that Invest 92-L will quickly move to the west at 20 mph over the next several days and this quick forward motion is likely to lead to very slow development. In addition, a large plume of dry air is located very close to Invest 92-L and this will also slow down any development. At this point, I think that it may be several days until we see this system start to develop.

“At this point, the model consensus is for Invest 92-L to not develop until it moves past 50 West Longitude this weekend. This means that this system may be developing and intensifying as it’s passing over the northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday night and Monday.

“Bottom line is that this is a system to keep an eye on, however, any development of it will be very slow to occur. One thing to keep in mind though is that it still looks like that a large ridge of high pressure could guide this system across the entire Atlantic. So, everyone across the eastern and north-eastern Caribbean, the Bahamas and the US East Coast should just keep an eye on Invest 92-L for now,” Crown Weather concludes.

Thanks for you updates we appreciate us at Storm2k .
So, what are you the very latest guess about 92L?

[JtSmarts]

These GFS runs are like a carbon copy of the early runs for 99L/TD9.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO.

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little
more favorable for some gradual development of this system late this
week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Michele B]

This is the one emerging from Africa?

Yup. We might end up spending even more time on this thing than on 99L/09L.

Hard to imagine, but possibly!

Maybe this one will act like tropical systems are SUPPOSED to act on the trek west.

[ouragans]

Floater removed as well. I'm wondering if they were not too quick to make this an Invest. Now we're blind

[p1nheadlarry]

Has there been any research as to why the Atlantic has been so dry during the peak of hurricane season the last few years? If CV storms choke to death during September, we're looking at a major climate shift. If climate change is the overall answer to the question, I'd like to know exactly how higher global temps have flipped the script in this basin even if the amo phase is not negative.

[Hammy]

Has there been any research as to why the Atlantic has been so dry during the peak of hurricane season the last few years? If CV storms choke to death during September, we're looking at a major climate shift. If climate change is the overall answer to the question, I'd like to know exactly how higher global temps have flipped the script in this basin even if the amo phase is not negative.

We're in the suppressive phase of the MJO at the moment, and there are still lingering Nino effects; 2014-15 were El Nino and 2013's upper pattern (despite the atmosphere moistening up later) never left spring due to a weakening of the thermohaline circulation that year (and global activity was down). But the last three years (this one included) are simply still under El Nino influence due to the tropical East Pacific having not cooled yet.

Floater removed as well. I'm wondering if they were not too quick to make this an Invest. Now we're blind

RAMMB floater is still there and it's every 30 minutes--I generally don't use the SSD ones when they're in Meteosat range.

[cycloneye]

Even thou Invest 92L is not active right now,they may have it up again anytime so we will stick here and the peeps can continue to post in the 92L threads.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is NOT good news that this suppose to take a long time to develop. Quick development equates to recurve, otherwise this will continue westward

[chaser1]

Has there been any research as to why the Atlantic has been so dry during the peak of hurricane season the last few years? If CV storms choke to death during September, we're looking at a major climate shift. If climate change is the overall answer to the question, I'd like to know exactly how higher global temps have flipped the script in this basin even if the amo phase is not negative.

We're in the suppressive phase of the MJO at the moment, and there are still lingering Nino effects; 2014-15 were El Nino and 2013's upper pattern (despite the atmosphere moistening up later) never left spring due to a weakening of the thermohaline circulation that year (and global activity was down). But the last three years (this one included) are simply still under El Nino influence due to the tropical East Pacific having not cooled yet.

Floater removed as well. I'm wondering if they were not too quick to make this an Invest. Now we're blind

RAMMB floater is still there and it's every 30 minutes--I generally don't use the SSD ones when they're in Meteosat range.

Hammy, do you happen to have a link to the latest MJO update? I think it updates weekly but havn't seen a graph since about a week ago when someone posted one.