ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Buoy 42056 now has a camera that we can see as the weather near this area starts going downhill today, now it is also reporting every 10 minutes instead of every hour. Pressures are 3 mb lower than 24 hrs ago.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[northjaxpro]

Based on the tightly clustered track guidance by the models within 72-96 hours of potential impact and landfall on the Florida peninsula, I can safely assume that the center will make landfall anywhere from Apalachicola down to Fort Myers. I am inclined to take the EURO's solution of a landfall farther north from Appalachicola to Cedar Key currently. But regardless as to where the center will make landfall, shear will likely make 93L/Colin a very lopsided cyclone, with the heaviest weather to the east of the COC, which will cover 80% of the peninsula. The only exception may be the extreme western Panhandle areas west of the Apalachicola River, which may miss most of the storm's rain/turbulent action being on its western side. However, if the EURO keeps trending north and west, the folks in the extreme western panhandle will have to monitor this as well as time progresses.

[tolakram]

live visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=black

[northjaxpro]

What is everyone's guess on max intensity in the gulf?

Well, one thing I have learned about these massive, monsoonal gyres once they move into the Gulf of Mexico based on recent history is to never underestimate them. Granted, in this time of the year in June, these systems often encounter shear, and this system will be no different. But, as we saw with Debby in June 2012, despite the shear she endured, was a massive tropical storm which at one point strengthened to 65 mph in the Eastern GOM. She dropped 15+ inches of rain at my locale due to her extreme slow motion and lack of steering at that time. Hopefully future Colin will not be a repeat of what Debby did with the massive flooding. This storm should move on out of the picture much quicker than Debby did with the flow with the upper trough, which will be in the NW GOM early next week.

But, it would not shock me in the least if 93L/Colin becomes a moderate /strong tropical cyclone within the next 72 hours, despite the shear. I am not anticipating the system to become a hurricane, but Colin could be similar in make-up to Debby. I am more worried with the treat of tornadoes over the next few days , especially across North and Northeast peninsula, and across Central FL also.

[gatorcane]

Here comes the trough (currently digging over the plains) to pick up 93l and eventually eject it northeast over the eastern gulf.

[NDG]

This is where I see the low pressure center right now, based on surface observation and first vis sat loop.

[northjaxpro]

Generally agree with the Low placement NDG, although I could make a case for it being slightly a bit more north or east of the X mark in which where you have it. You can also see how the system is beginning to get decent outflow on the northeastern and eastern side of the developing Low. You are starting to see the cirrus outflow on that quadrant, which suggests that an anticyclone is trying to establish itself over the system. This will be an asymmetric system in structure for sure, but will still become at least a moderate TS in my view by Monday.

[TheStormExpert]

NHC Atlantic Ops
@NHC_Atlantic

Today’s recon flight for the northwestern Caribbean Sea disturbance has been cancelled. Another one planned for Sunday afternoon.

[TheStormExpert]

NHC Atlantic Ops
@NHC_Atlantic

Today’s recon flight for the northwestern Caribbean Sea disturbance has been cancelled. Another one planned for Sunday afternoon.

[SeGaBob]

The NWS is acting like we may get "some action" here. I'm inclined to think we won't get it like Florida though.




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[northjaxpro]

Well, the scheduling for RECON for today was a precautionary measure just in case if the system organized faster than forecast. So, not surprised they cancelled the mission for today. However, they will definitely need the rev up the engine of the Recon plane tomorrow to head down to investigate as the system drifts north up toward the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.

[cycloneye]

NDG,almost nailed the position. Here is the 12z Best Track and surface plot with observations.

Location: 16.6°N 86.6°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 250 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 120 NM

[wxman57]

TC forecasts rarely seem as straightforward as this one. Steering currents are well-established to take this disturbance to the Florida Peninsula a bit north of (or near) Tampa Monday night/Tuesday morning as a sheared tropical storm with winds 35-40 kts (over water). There should be little in the way of squalls to the left of the track (like in Georgia, as someone inquired). Heaviest rain will occur from Tampa/Orlando southward across the Peninsula from Monday afternoon through Tuesday. I doubt any locations on land will record sustained TS winds, perhaps some coastal buoys will.

[Dean4Storms]

Based on the tightly clustered track guidance by the models within 72-96 hours of potential impact and landfall on the Florida peninsula, I can safely assume that the center will make landfall anywhere from Apalachicola down to Fort Myers. I am inclined to take the EURO's solution of a landfall farther north from Appalachicola to Cedar Key currently. But regardless as to where the center will make landfall, shear will likely make 93L/Colin a very lopsided cyclone, with the heaviest weather to the east of the COC, which will cover 80% of the peninsula. The only exception may be the extreme western Panhandle areas west of the Apalachicola River, which may miss most of the storm's rain/turbulent action being on its western side. However, if the EURO keeps trending north and west, the folks in the extreme western panhandle will have to monitor this as well as time progresses.

Yea, I'm here between Destin and PCB and keeping an eye on it, already got over 3 inches of rain this morning in conjunction with the trough to the West. It could very well get further north south of P'Cola before it gets dragged eastward by the longwave trough, going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

[NDG]

I agree, they probably would had just found a broad area of low pressure but no defined LLC. Better chance tomorrow afternoon.

[NDG]

12z models now clustered just north of Tampa Bay.

[NDG]

Very good agreement of becoming a tropical storm.

[jlauderdal]

TC forecasts rarely seem as straightforward as this one. Steering currents are well-established to take this disturbance to the Florida Peninsula a bit north of (or near) Tampa Monday night/Tuesday morning as a sheared tropical storm with winds 35-40 kts (over water). There should be little in the way of squalls to the left of the track (like in Georgia, as someone inquired). Heaviest rain will occur from Tampa/Orlando southward across the Peninsula from Monday afternoon through Tuesday. I doubt any locations on land will record sustained TS winds, perhaps some coastal buoys will.

That heavy rain area 57 mentions will remain wet beyond tuesday since the front will stall out...too early to say where but somewhere around the lake..that setup is more interesting for sofla than this system

[cycloneye]

Postel of TWC about the Spaghetti tracks.

@GregPostel · 3m3 minutes ago

Track spaghetti plots not as useful w/ #93L, w/ its asymmetric, semi-tropical swirl spread far from center #flwx

[tolakram]

Very tight model consistency as to the position n 2 days ... among the better models anyway: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/