ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
models have been way too fast with the short term motion. Take HWRF for example. It has Matthew at 0Z north of 31N. Instead, it may be around 30.6N
This difference may spare SC from a landfall
This difference may spare SC from a landfall
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Alyono wrote:models have been way too fast with the short term motion. Take HWRF for example. It has Matthew at 0Z north of 31N. Instead, it may be around 30.6N
This difference may spare SC from a landfall
Where did gfs and euro put him?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
12 inches of rain then. Time to find my car keys. Thanks for the image.
Last edited by Ntxw on Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Reason: Removed img tags
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
18z GFS close to Savannah and SC coast.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Alyono wrote:models have been way too fast with the short term motion. Take HWRF for example. It has Matthew at 0Z north of 31N. Instead, it may be around 30.6N
This difference may spare SC from a landfall
Right now HWRF brings the center over Charleston a little after low tide. Any delay from that puts more water into Charleston Harbor.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Vdogg wrote:Alyono wrote:models have been way too fast with the short term motion. Take HWRF for example. It has Matthew at 0Z north of 31N. Instead, it may be around 30.6N
This difference may spare SC from a landfall
Where did gfs and euro put him?
EC has the right lat, but the lon is a bit too far west
MU is reasonable
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Alyono wrote:models have been way too fast with the short term motion. Take HWRF for example. It has Matthew at 0Z north of 31N. Instead, it may be around 30.6N
This difference may spare SC from a landfall
I pray you are right!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
18Z NAVGEM shows Matthew passing close to SE Florida towards the NW Caribbean where it makes a run at a hurricane again this looks doubtful given it is the NAVGEM
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
HRRR showing it running up SC just off the coast
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100717&fh=31&xpos=0&ypos=148
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100717&fh=31&xpos=0&ypos=148
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
SouthernBreeze wrote:HRRR showing it running up SC just off the coast
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100717&fh=31&xpos=0&ypos=148
lets not use this model again
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
OK - reason? You don't feel its accurate enough?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM shows Matthew passing close to SE Florida towards the NW Caribbean where it makes a run at a hurricane again this looks doubtful given it is the NAVGEM
https://s11.postimg.org/lw2l3qzn7/navge ... atl_24.png
CMC shows the same thing happening.
Last edited by Ntxw on Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
most models seem pretty much in agreement for track up off SC right now. I wish I could find a good strength predictor!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM shows Matthew passing close to SE Florida towards the NW Caribbean where it makes a run at a hurricane again this looks doubtful given it is the NAVGEM
https://s11.postimg.org/lw2l3qzn7/navge ... atl_24.png
Ha, the navgem wasn't terrible...it latched on to the west idea way before euro and gfs did last weekend
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
jlauderdal wrote:gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM shows Matthew passing close to SE Florida towards the NW Caribbean where it makes a run at a hurricane again this looks doubtful given it is the NAVGEM
https://s11.postimg.org/lw2l3qzn7/navge ... atl_24.png
Ha, the navgem wasn't terrible...it latched on to the west idea way before euro and gfs did last weekend
It also showed Miami...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I think the takeaway from Matthew and the models is that in general the Euro and GFS did a good job showing us up to day 4 approximately what would happen. Not exactly but very useable. Day 5 and beyond not so much.
I think it's natural for weather geeks like me to really WANT to know what's gonna happen so we look at the long ranges. We hope that somehow the long range runs beyond say 4 days are going to tell us something meaningful. In fact they don't. Just look at the evolution of the steering pattern for Matthew and the sizes of the ridges and cutoff lows. Some features were modeled but never appeared. At least nothing close to the shape and size indicated at day 6.
For the next storm, I'm going to try and really ignore the longer ranges. It causes only disappointment, stress, unfounded excitement, unfounded concern. You've gotta wait until day 3 to really know where a storm is going when you have a recurve potential and or coast hugging situation.
I just wish that the TV promets and even some of the better internet mets would take a step back and stop acting at day 6 like they really know the answer. It isn't helpful. And the TV mets with their desperate need to be first on the story are incessantly declaring all clears when they should be more patient. A lot of pride there. One day it will go before a fall.
I think it's natural for weather geeks like me to really WANT to know what's gonna happen so we look at the long ranges. We hope that somehow the long range runs beyond say 4 days are going to tell us something meaningful. In fact they don't. Just look at the evolution of the steering pattern for Matthew and the sizes of the ridges and cutoff lows. Some features were modeled but never appeared. At least nothing close to the shape and size indicated at day 6.
For the next storm, I'm going to try and really ignore the longer ranges. It causes only disappointment, stress, unfounded excitement, unfounded concern. You've gotta wait until day 3 to really know where a storm is going when you have a recurve potential and or coast hugging situation.
I just wish that the TV promets and even some of the better internet mets would take a step back and stop acting at day 6 like they really know the answer. It isn't helpful. And the TV mets with their desperate need to be first on the story are incessantly declaring all clears when they should be more patient. A lot of pride there. One day it will go before a fall.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
wxmann_91 wrote:jlauderdal wrote:gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM shows Matthew passing close to SE Florida towards the NW Caribbean where it makes a run at a hurricane again this looks doubtful given it is the NAVGEM
https://s11.postimg.org/lw2l3qzn7/navge ... atl_24.png
Ha, the navgem wasn't terrible...it latched on to the west idea way before euro and gfs did last weekend
It also showed Miami...
Yes it did which was much closer to reality than euro and gfs which were way east..navgem was west a week ago
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
SouthernBreeze wrote:OK - reason? You don't feel its accurate enough?
The HRRR is not a tropical model. It models regional thunderstorms that are a few hours out. It's not completely wrong -- Matthew is a big thunderstorm -- but it won't capture anything beyond the next few hours very well.
For this system, the HRRR is good if you want to ask "hey, I wonder when that next feeder band is supposed to come by, and how strong it will be." You can't get that information from something like the Euro or GFS with sufficient detail. If you want to know whether the system will make landfall or curve out to sea, it's not the best place to look.
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