ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Vdogg]

18z HWRF brings it right over Outer Banks after initial landfall in SC.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

[tolakram]

Hurricane Models

[Vdogg]

18z gfdl initial landfall Willington, skirts NC coast and exits Outer Banks. That's 3 major models that have trended north.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

Anybody have the ensemble runs?

[tolakram]

HRRR model, reliability unknown

[Ken711]

12Z Hurricane Models

[i g]http://i.imgur.com/cTpUpcP.gif[/img]

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/92wyi5Y.gif[/img]

Appears there's no looping track and the OBX better be prepared.

[tolakram]

Just beware that the GFDL has an absolutely horrid track record with terrible verification. HWRF is usually much better, though it's verification with Matthew has been pretty bad as well.

[sandy18]

How good are these models? Will the NHC change the cone with these runs or will they wait and see what tomorrow runs looks like, We need time to be ready, Well I am ready anyway just incase but many people in our area just under the understanding that NC is only gonna get some maybe TS winds and lots of rain, we are not even under the watch in our area Carteret co

[GTStorm]

Just beware that the GFDL has an absolutely horrid track record with terrible verification. HWRF is usually much better, though it's verification with Matthew has been pretty bad as well.

but...with three models (GFS, HWRF, GFDL) now trending in the same direction (away from Florida), isn't that somewhat encouraging?

[Raebie]

Just beware that the GFDL has an absolutely horrid track record with terrible verification. HWRF is usually much better, though it's verification with Matthew has been pretty bad as well.

but...with three models (GFS, HWRF, GFDL) now trending in the same direction (away from Florida), isn't that somewhat encouraging?

Encouraging for WHO?

[GTStorm]

Just beware that the GFDL has an absolutely horrid track record with terrible verification. HWRF is usually much better, though it's verification with Matthew has been pretty bad as well.

but...with three models (GFS, HWRF, GFDL) now trending in the same direction (away from Florida), isn't that somewhat encouraging?

Encouraging for WHO?

Florida, for now...and maybe the trend continues enough to help everyone.

[Raebie]

Let's hope.

[tolakram]

Just beware that the GFDL has an absolutely horrid track record with terrible verification. HWRF is usually much better, though it's verification with Matthew has been pretty bad as well.

but...with three models (GFS, HWRF, GFDL) now trending in the same direction (away from Florida), isn't that somewhat encouraging?

I don't know if it's that meaningful. The HWRF was offshore for days, then finally came west. The GFS and GFDL are similar, and the GFS has been pretty bad for this storm as well. The ECMWF and UKMET still show landfall, or very close. At this point I'm not sure the models are meaningful for Florida, but certainly still important for GA, SC, NC.

[MrJames]

Latest.

[GTStorm]

Just beware that the GFDL has an absolutely horrid track record with terrible verification. HWRF is usually much better, though it's verification with Matthew has been pretty bad as well.

but...with three models (GFS, HWRF, GFDL) now trending in the same direction (away from Florida), isn't that somewhat encouraging?

I don't know if it's that meaningful. The HWRF was offshore for days, then finally came west. The GFS and GFDL are similar, and the GFS has been pretty bad for this storm as well. The ECMWF and UKMET still show landfall, or very close. At this point I'm not sure the models are meaningful for Florida, but certainly still important for GA, SC, NC.

The latest Euro and UK models are still 12Z, correct? Let's see what the 00Z models say.

[OuterBanker]

I am hoping it stays off Fl. I can tell you that everone has dropped thier guard here on the OBX. All the models and the NHC plot have been away from the area. They even stopped mandatory evac from Ocracoke (tourist have to evac though). Still looks like the hook will occur. Everyone here is dependent on it.

[one wolf]

The hook failing at this point would be a fiasco for the crystal coast up thru obx simply because we haven't been fully prepping due to the expected hook!

[Raebie]

Yep. Same for all of NC. That's why I was frustrated to see the model forum basically abandoned. But I've had several scotches now. Lol.

[T'Bonz]

It'll get more lively when the GFS comes out later.

[invest man]

Just looked at water vapor loops and the trough looks stronger than what models were anticipated. Also models gfs in particular seems to want to bring it to Emerald Isle before hooking it out! Based on this I see the NHC moving the track further up toward Chrystal Coast before moving it out if not at 11 perhaps by 5! But I'm not a met and didn't sleep at a holiday inn last night either.

[seahawkjd]

Just looked at water vapor loops and the trough looks stronger than what models were anticipated. Also models gfs in particular seems to want to bring it to Emerald Isle before hooking it out! Based on this I see the NHC moving the track further up toward Chrystal Coast before moving it out if not at 11 perhaps by 5! But I'm not a met and didn't sleep at a holiday inn last night either.

Where are you seeing the GFS bringing it that far north?