ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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RL3AO
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7221 Postby RL3AO » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:15 pm

Motion has been a consistent due NW this evening. That would bring it near WPB. Not sure if there is any reason for a more westward turn like the HRRR is showing.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7222 Postby SapphireSea » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:27 pm

Charleston sounding shows a 5880 500mb height now. JAX showing a 5890 height? If these soundings are correct there is definitely expanding "thumb" ridge. Perhaps its being snuffed out by the HRRR unless it does not use 500mb as im not familiar. Possible slight west GFS shift coming.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7223 Postby Lifeless » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:27 pm

00z GFS has started.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7224 Postby RL3AO » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:29 pm

SapphireSea wrote:Charleston sounding shows a 5880 500mb height now. JAX showing a 5890 height? If these soundings are correct there is definitely expanding "thumb" ridge. Perhaps its being snuffed out by the HRRR unless it does not use 500mb as im not familiar. Possible slight west GFS shift coming.


The HRRR is one of the highest resolution weather models in the world. It uses the entire atmosphere depth.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7225 Postby jason1912 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:30 pm

GFS a bit east.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7226 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:30 pm

Slightly E through 12hrs..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7227 Postby Lifeless » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:30 pm

00z already showing a slower storm compared to the 18z at 12hrs
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7228 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:31 pm

All I can say is that I will be using the ACCESS model from here on and giving it a decent amount of weight
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7229 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:31 pm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=212 18 hr gfs
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7230 Postby RL3AO » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:31 pm

Alyono wrote:All I can say is that I will be using the ACCESS model from here on and giving it a decent amount of weight


And the UKMET deserves some credit too.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7231 Postby La Sirena » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:32 pm

Alyono wrote:All I can say is that I will be using the ACCESS model from here on and giving it a decent amount of weight

The Australian model!? Interesting.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7232 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:35 pm

24 hours... Little S of 18z... Ridge looks stronger...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7233 Postby bg1 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:35 pm

A little bit slower thru 24 hours... ridge seems a bit stronger.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7234 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:35 pm

Alyono wrote:All I can say is that I will be using the ACCESS model from here on and giving it a decent amount of weight


It has been eerily accurate, I agree.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7235 Postby SapphireSea » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:36 pm

Seems to go over or just single digit miles East of Andros now. West of NHC slightly at 12 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7236 Postby adam0983 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:36 pm

Is the gfs east of the previous run?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7237 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:37 pm

adam0983 wrote:Is the gfs east of the previous run?


through 18 hrs... A hair east... At 24 a little slower a S of 18z...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7238 Postby bg1 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:37 pm

adam0983 wrote:Is the gfs east of the previous run?

A tiny bit SE.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7239 Postby Lifeless » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:37 pm

30hrs slightly SE of the 18z, leaving for a slightly later landfall.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7240 Postby SapphireSea » Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:37 pm

adam0983 wrote:Is the gfs east of the previous run?


Looks slower and slightly S as of a result through hour 30. No change East-West, but overall west of NHC thus far.
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