ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Alyono]

both GFDL and HWRF have shifted west. GFDL inland, HWRF still narrow miss, but it brings hurricane winds to more areas

HWRF at 18z looks substantially more threatening to the SE coast since it stays offshore. Runs the whole way from Miami to Wilmington about 50 miles offshore with pressures in the 940s. The GFDL lands, but probably has minimal impact to GA, SC, and NC. Of course, all that really shows is that the impact of this storm will be determined by small deviations in path that cannot be predicted with any certainty.

the HWRF would result in minor damage for the coast. GFDL is catastrophic

[dukeblue219]

both GFDL and HWRF have shifted west. GFDL inland, HWRF still narrow miss, but it brings hurricane winds to more areas

HWRF at 18z looks substantially more threatening to the SE coast since it stays offshore. Runs the whole way from Miami to Wilmington about 50 miles offshore with pressures in the 940s. The GFDL lands, but probably has minimal impact to GA, SC, and NC. Of course, all that really shows is that the impact of this storm will be determined by small deviations in path that cannot be predicted with any certainty.

the HWRF would result in minor damage for the coast. GFDL is catastrophic

(Understanding that this is splitting hairs between two model runs and taking them verbatim)

I would naively expect the HWRF's long duration of hurricane-force winds fringing the coast cause more damage than a GFDL track that barrels straight in over a localized area? Am I just overestimating the damage of an offshore major storm?

EDIT -- you know what, in retrospect after re-examining the 18z GFDL specifically, it doesn't "barrel straight in" quite like I stated. My mistake. It does show the storm holding strength much longer than I thought it did.

[ronjon]

18z GFDL at 940 mb into Vero Beach/north WPB. 18z HWRF just offshore WPB at 943 mb and rides the coast. Landfall 2 am Friday.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFDL at 940 mb into Vero Beach/north WPB. 18z HWRF just offshore WPB at 943 mb and rides the coast. Landfall 2 am Friday.

There are 2 counties between NPB and Vero.

[Blinhart]

So models are starting to show this making a complete loop and going into the GoM moving SW, what a change the last 2 days.

[ronjon]

18z GFDL at 940 mb into Vero Beach/north WPB. 18z HWRF just offshore WPB at 943 mb and rides the coast. Landfall 2 am Friday.

There are 2 counties between NPB and Vero.

Ok port st Lucie and north WPB. thanks...off a little on the geography.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFDL at 940 mb into Vero Beach/north WPB. 18z HWRF just offshore WPB at 943 mb and rides the coast. Landfall 2 am Friday.

There are 2 counties between NPB and Vero.

Ok port st Lucie and north WPB. thanks...off a little on the geography.

Lol that's me. Martin County. Stuart

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM with a slight west (south) shift:

[tgenius]

18Z NAVGEM with a slight west (south) shift:

Obviously navgem probably won't pan out (thankfully). but if it did I wonder what time they would raise dade to hurricane warnings. Would think at 5am.

[ronjon]

There are 2 counties between NPB and Vero.

Ok port st Lucie and north WPB. thanks...off a little on the geography.

Lol that's me. Martin County. Stuart

Hahaha...looks like MATTHEW will be knocking at your door. I wouldn't stick around to answer it.

[jlauderdal]

18Z NAVGEM with a slight west (south) shift:

Obviously navgem probably won't pan out (thankfully). but if it did I wonder what time they would raise dade to hurricane warnings. Would think at 5am.

navgem has been on this west idea for days...wether by accident or not its a win

[stormreader]

18Z NAVGEM with a slight west (south) shift:

Obviously navgem probably won't pan out (thankfully). but if it did I wonder what time they would raise dade to hurricane warnings. Would think at 5am.

I don't like the fact that just a slight west jog affects many miles of coast further south. This is because the storm is approaching the coast at such a steep angle. I'm of a mind to think that hurricane warnings wouldn't be a bad idea for Dade County right now.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Storm surge inundation is likey to be horrific with the shore skirting if those tracks verify.

[Sanibel]

both GFDL and HWRF have shifted west. GFDL inland, HWRF still narrow miss, but it brings hurricane winds to more areas

This is bad. If GFDL is back into Palm Beach like it was last night it is sensing something. It also usually disagrees with HWRF, so for the two to mostly agree is not a good sign. I also find GFDL accurate with storms of this strength.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Sanibel]

Edit: Double Post

[Blown Away]

00z Guidance...

[GTStorm]

00z Guidance...

looks like something I put on my refrigerator from my four year old.

East Coast in for a long couple of days, that's for sure...

[GTStorm]

both GFDL and HWRF have shifted west. GFDL inland, HWRF still narrow miss, but it brings hurricane winds to more areas

This is bad. If GFDL is back into Palm Beach like it was last night it is sensing something. It also usually disagrees with HWRF, so for the two to mostly agree is not a good sign. I also find GFDL accurate with storms of this strength.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

GFDL weakens Matthew substantially by the time it gets up this way...what is it seeing?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

A good link for model comparisons, may not be the latest run but v/good any way. Note the ARPEGE is a model run in hires.

http://meteocentre.com/models/compar_mo ... ide&hh=024

[Sanibel]

GFDL weakens Matthew substantially by the time it gets up this way...what is it seeing?

Land interaction...