ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ronjon]

Well our two best models give us a path of destruction from WPB to Charleston - OMG!!!. In the next 2-3 days.

[JtSmarts]

Ukmet, Euro and I believe CMC once again showing SC landfall.

[ronyan]

Where does it go between 48 and 72?

Probably hugging the coast.

[SunnyThoughts]

From West Palm to Myrtle Beach Sc, man. Just following the coastline the whole way.

[tolakram]

Horrible track for the Bahamas, Florida, and SC. Hopefully something changes, again.

[Ken711]

No loop this Euro run? Maybe it continues up NC coast.

[KWT]

I've always found those 850hpa winds are good guides for wind gusts, especially in the eyewall with the strong convection there. So the ECM seems to bring those hurricane force gusts well inland.

Models seemed to have movedback towards a slightly stronger trough. Histroically that would be the form set-up, but this is a rare set-up, to get this sort of track is exceptional..

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783731619899252740

[tolakram]

Saved images from that tweet.

[ronyan]

Loop still possible.

[hurricaneCW]

Euro trending towards a sharper trough again, would be terrible news for the Carolinas.

[caneseddy]

Saved images from that tweet.

OMG..that is indeed a worse case scenario...that could rival Katrina in damage I would think

[seahawkjd]

Loop still possible.

Quite a big change though from the last run as far as effects to the southern coast of NC. Thankfully weaker, though seemingly at the coast of a lot of other coastline .

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Certainly problematic for the space program...

[xironman]

I've always found those 850hpa winds are good guides for wind gusts, especially in the eyewall with the strong convection there. So the ECM seems to bring those hurricane force gusts well inland.

Models seemed to have movedback towards a slightly stronger trough. Histroically that would be the form set-up, but this is a rare set-up, to get this sort of track is exceptional..

I have learned my lesson watching this one. In a quasi-Nina year the northern stream is going to over perform and the trough will not dig as depicted. So I kind of discount this run past 48.

[Ken711]

Loop still possible.

To far north for a loop I think.

[SunnyThoughts]

Looking at satellite image at this time, it doesn't surprise me too much about the strength shown in the Euro run.

[JPmia]

That's what I was afraid of with the Euro.. Initial landfall appears to be St Lucie County and then hugs the coast like the GFS. The 24 HR increments don't show that.. Is this correct?

[Vdogg]

Euro came north. Outer Banks gets blasted. Hampton Roads probably strong tropical storm force winds with hurricane force gusts. Literally same set up every year. There's something to be said about living in an area and knowing the weather pattern. These models are great, but sometimes you have to go with your gut. Local met at wvec called this exact path yesterday. I've seen what I need to see, time to prepare.

[ronyan]

Is indeed doing the loop.