ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I think NHC has this analyzed about right. I can clearly see the circulation center and it appears that the N/NE header is correct along with a slight increase in forward speed. The Navy Satellite loop Gatorcane posted is very telling with that.

[Aric Dunn]

I think NHC has this analyzed about right. I can clearly see the circulation center and it appears that the N/NE header is correct. The Navy Satellite loop Gatorcane posted is very telling with that.

unfortuantely not what recon shows.. just keep waiting another 6 to 12 hours then it will be on its way. should push back landfall time to midday friday.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 312115
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 33 20160831
210600 2403N 08726W 8420 01553 0050 +193 +165 222042 043 039 000 00
210630 2401N 08726W 8420 01552 0049 +191 +169 222042 042 038 000 00
210700 2359N 08726W 8416 01556 0046 +195 +168 224040 041 039 000 00
210730 2358N 08726W 8416 01557 0052 +190 +166 221043 044 038 000 00
210800 2356N 08726W 8431 01544 0051 +194 +161 218042 043 037 000 00
210830 2354N 08726W 8435 01538 0048 +198 +159 217040 041 037 000 00
210900 2353N 08726W 8434 01540 0050 +194 +161 218040 040 037 000 00
210930 2351N 08726W 8421 01552 0052 +192 +160 219040 040 035 001 00
211000 2349N 08726W 8419 01556 0054 +191 +159 218041 042 035 001 00
211030 2348N 08726W 8410 01563 0054 +190 +157 220042 043 036 002 00
211100 2346N 08726W 8408 01565 0052 +191 +157 219042 043 034 004 00
211130 2344N 08726W 8414 01564 0058 +190 +157 222041 042 036 004 00
211200 2343N 08726W 8417 01563 0060 +188 +154 224040 040 034 005 00
211230 2341N 08726W 8413 01569 0058 +188 +178 223040 041 035 007 00
211300 2339N 08726W 8407 01570 0059 +187 +174 226042 043 037 009 00
211330 2337N 08726W 8413 01567 0058 +189 +173 224042 043 040 006 00
211400 2336N 08726W 8419 01564 0062 +187 +170 220040 041 039 005 00
211430 2334N 08726W 8420 01565 0060 +191 +165 219042 043 040 004 00
211500 2332N 08726W 8423 01559 0059 +194 +162 219042 043 038 007 00
211530 2331N 08726W 8423 01560 0064 +191 +160 218040 040 037 008 00

[caneman]

Tampa radar shows training in full progress. I am looking forward to seeing the rainfall totals for the Tampa area from Hermine. Goes to show even far from the center, you can have major effects from these systems. This rainfall could even surpass the rainfall totals from the system last year that dumped so much rain over West-Central Florida.

Yep, we're getting rainfall of biblical proportions. Everyone ive spoke with that has lived here for ahile has said they've never seen rain this bad. Streets are flooding that don't normally flood. Lakes are overflowing that don't overflow.

[bevgo]

I very rarely post but here it is. I am confused. I keep hearing projected landfall is moving west. Then hear she is moving ne. I have two young boys I need to keep safe and am not physically healthy. I live in coastal ms almost on AL line. I have seen many storms go in areas not predicted. I just need to know we are safe here. If there is any great track change when would I know? I live on the Gulf and will get trapped in my neighborhood and unable to get us out if there is much of a storm surge. Someone please put my mind at ease. I have been here for a long time and really don't usually get freaked out but since my very recent heart attack I need to be where I can at least get to a hospital.

[Zarniwoop]

She's very clearly starting to spin.

Don't know that that means anything. But, at least the clouds look nice =)

[StormTracker]

I think NHC has this analyzed about right. I can clearly see the circulation center and it appears that the N/NE header is correct. The Navy Satellite loop Gatorcane posted is very telling with that.

unfortuantely not what recon shows.. just keep waiting another 6 to 12 hours then it will be on its way. should push back landfall time to midday friday.

So apparently, the NHC is pegging the center as the hole north of 25N?

[tolakram]

PLEASE READ

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[mobilebay]

I very rarely post but here it is. I am confused. I keep hearing projected landfall is moving west. Then hear she is moving ne. I have two young boys I need to keep safe and am not physically healthy. I live in coastal ms almost on AL line. I have seen many storms go in areas not predicted. I just need to know we are safe here. If there is any great track change when would I know? I live on the Gulf and will get trapped in my neighborhood and unable to get us out if there is much of a storm surge. Someone please put my mind at ease. I have been here for a long time and really don't usually get freaked out but since my very recent heart attack I need to be where I can at least get to a hospital.

Hermine is moving NNE. However, the models have trended a little further west, meaning the models are not taking it as far east as before. Nhc adjusted track a little to the west like the. Models trended that's all

[OntarioEggplant]

I don't mistrust the experts at the NHC - I mistrust their methodologies and reliance on flawed modeling. blah.....blah....blah.... See - I work in a field where my degree of error cannot be off by 500 miles ..........blah.....blah.....blah.... and this system is proving there are issues that need addressing

Will one of the Mods please open a ATL:Hermine-Opinions thread? That way if I need to seek out this type of mindless blather, I'll know where to find it. Quite annoying to slam into this on the DISCUSSION thread.

Mindless blather? Why? Am I not free to express my opinion on a discussion thread especially when it is trying to discern trajectory of a storm?

What is mindless about it? The fact it does not align exactly with NHC? Pretentiousness won't prove my theory of an east wobble wrong especially when others share the skepticism.

Frankly, what you said shows a complete lack of understanding of how meteorology works. Yes everyone has been frustrated with the models for this storm...but that's an artifact of how complex Hermine's environment has been. Meteorological predictions can never be perfect simply due to the fact that they are based in chaos theory which we do not have a good understanding of yet. It does not matter what you do in your career field as it does not compare to the challenges and background conditions that underly meteorological forecasting.

Too many people want a perfect black and white answer when there is not or never will be one. Understand the gray area first and why that gray area exists. Then understand why all forecasts are of the best, educated, scientific guess variety.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/771094570322890752

[txwatcher91]

I very rarely post but here it is. I am confused. I keep hearing projected landfall is moving west. Then hear she is moving ne. I have two young boys I need to keep safe and am not physically healthy. I live in coastal ms almost on AL line. I have seen many storms go in areas not predicted. I just need to know we are safe here. If there is any great track change when would I know? I live on the Gulf and will get trapped in my neighborhood and unable to get us out if there is much of a storm surge. Someone please put my mind at ease. I have been here for a long time and really don't usually get freaked out but since my very recent heart attack I need to be where I can at least get to a hospital.

I would recommend to keep a close eye on the NHC forecast and the model consensus. At this time your area will be on the left, and weaker, portion of the storm. Just keep a close eye on things, we should have a good handle on the track by tomorrow afternoon when this should be well on its way NE towards the Big Bend of FL.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/771094570322890752

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I very rarely post but here it is. I am confused. I keep hearing projected landfall is moving west. Then hear she is moving ne. I have two young boys I need to keep safe and am not physically healthy. I live in coastal ms almost on AL line. I have seen many storms go in areas not predicted. I just need to know we are safe here. If there is any great track change when would I know? I live on the Gulf and will get trapped in my neighborhood and unable to get us out if there is much of a storm surge. Someone please put my mind at ease. I have been here for a long time and really don't usually get freaked out but since my very recent heart attack I need to be where I can at least get to a hospital.

Please Go to the National Hurricane Center and get information from them or watch your local media for sort of decisions, you should not rely on an internet forum

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Blinhart]

I very rarely post but here it is. I am confused. I keep hearing projected landfall is moving west. Then hear she is moving ne. I have two young boys I need to keep safe and am not physically healthy. I live in coastal ms almost on AL line. I have seen many storms go in areas not predicted. I just need to know we are safe here. If there is any great track change when would I know? I live on the Gulf and will get trapped in my neighborhood and unable to get us out if there is much of a storm surge. Someone please put my mind at ease. I have been here for a long time and really don't usually get freaked out but since my very recent heart attack I need to be where I can at least get to a hospital.

I would recommend to keep a close eye on the NHC forecast and the model consensus. At this time your area will be on the left, and weaker, portion of the storm. Just keep a close eye on things, we should have a good handle on the track by tomorrow afternoon when this should be well on its way NE towards the Big Bend of FL.

NE is not a guarantee yet.

[northjaxpro]

I very rarely post but here it is. I am confused. I keep hearing projected landfall is moving west. Then hear she is moving ne. I have two young boys I need to keep safe and am not physically healthy. I live in coastal ms almost on AL line. I have seen many storms go in areas not predicted. I just need to know we are safe here. If there is any great track change when would I know? I live on the Gulf and will get trapped in my neighborhood and unable to get us out if there is much of a storm surge. Someone please put my mind at ease. I have been here for a long time and really don't usually get freaked out but since my very recent heart attack I need to be where I can at least get to a hospital.

Bevgo, at this point, the only thing I can tell you safely is to monitor the progress on this forum,your local news outlets and most importantly, all the reports from the National Hurricane Center. Regardless of our opinions on here, which I respect from everyone, the experts at NHC know what they are doing and they are the best in the world at what they do in tropical cyclone forecasting. It would serve you well to pay attention to what comes from them.

[MaineWeatherNut]

I very rarely post but here it is. I am confused. I keep hearing projected landfall is moving west. Then hear she is moving ne. I have two young boys I need to keep safe and am not physically healthy. I live in coastal ms almost on AL line. I have seen many storms go in areas not predicted. I just need to know we are safe here. If there is any great track change when would I know? I live on the Gulf and will get trapped in my neighborhood and unable to get us out if there is much of a storm surge. Someone please put my mind at ease. I have been here for a long time and really don't usually get freaked out but since my very recent heart attack I need to be where I can at least get to a hospital.

Based on the currently available Data you guys should be fine. Maybe some wind, maybe some Rain... Nothing too bad though based on projected landfall and the fact that right now most of the weather is on the eastern side of the storm. However as a parent it's your job to do whatever you feel is needed to keep your kids safe... So if you are concerned about it and have a place to go then do so if that will put your mind at ease.

[johngaltfla]

I think NHC has this analyzed about right. I can clearly see the circulation center and it appears that the N/NE header is correct. The Navy Satellite loop Gatorcane posted is very telling with that.

unfortuantely not what recon shows.. just keep waiting another 6 to 12 hours then it will be on its way. should push back landfall time to midday friday.

Aric, you're seriously depressing me. Seriously though I'm concerned that any shift south and east will have major repercussions for the 0600Z models. Recon is doing a fine job and I'm not concerned with the cone of death shift to the west; I'm more worried that there will be a sudden east and south shift on short notice. I think the NHC is right to be concerned about rapid intensification in the last 12-24 hours before landfall.

[JKingTampa]

More new bands setting up just southwest of Tampa Bay....

[Aric Dunn]

lets end this for the moment.. there has been NO NE or N motion its been relatively stationary with many multiple center relocation and now a south reformation. when it starts to move ( likely about 6 to 8 or more hours) you will know it.