ATL: EIGHT - Remnants - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

Don't see much happening unless the ull pulls enough away.
It seems to be doing that, but the dry air and shear is also inhibiting development.
Could get interesting. That really strong ull yesterday inhibited Gaston and now that it has pulled away it has really blown up.

[CrazyC83]

Could a possible analog to this be Danielle 1992?

[Kazmit]

Could a possible analog to this be Danielle 1992?

I'd think so, or maybe Cristobal 2002.

[tolakram]

I think this might be a TD.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few
hours in association with an area of low pressure located about 250
miles west of Bermuda. While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive, some additional development of this system is
possible during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph. As the low approaches the coast of North Carolina
by mid-week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development. For additional information on this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/769865800555560960

[txwatcher91]

How is this not a TD at least? Yesterday's ASCAT pass indicated a close surface circulation and you can tell from this mornings visible it is as well. Nice convective burst too despite some shear.

[NDG]

Time for an upgrade to TD, IMO. Its long term life is not too promising though. Brennan is being way too conservative this morning.

[KWT]

NHC has been behind the curve with this system right from the off it seems, maybe too busy focusing in on 99L due to the immediate land effects but this one deserves an upgrade now. Indeed its probably been a TD/TS for a while I suspect.Should squeeze a TS out of this I think.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/769870944269656064

[Emmett_Brown]

Skipping TD and going straight to TS and is much more en vogue. (You don't see a lot of TD's form any more... seems like they go straight to TS, they seem really careful about whether an LLC is truly closed). I wouldn't be surprised to see this become Hermine in the next day or two.

[deltadog03]

This looks very impressive NHC needs to do something here

[Macrocane]

I agree, it looks like a TD already. It would be funny if this ends up being and Hermine and not 99L which has virtually been called Hermine since forever

[OuterBanker]

How interesting. Looked pitifull last night, ready to write it off. NWS local only mentions lighter winds and a weak system with increased shower activity in the 6:40 am approaching the area. But, it looks a lot better than the forecast. In fact it looks better than 99l. Still not aligned well, but a very symetrical vivid llc. From the looks of it they should still fly. I wonder what recon will find. Oh yea, it's making a b-line towards us so I guess I have a vested interest.

[Three Blind Mice]

20160828 1145 31.5 69.6 T2.0/2.0 91L 91L

[RL3AO]

Looks like they're catching up at SSD. I guess they're waiting for recon?

[MGC]

This looks like a TC to me....MGC

[tolakram]

[NDG]

If this is not a TD by 11 AM.....

[TimeZone]

Looks to be a TD/TS to me as well. Not really sure what the NHC is doing here.