ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

A strong tropical wave is located about 250 miles east of Barbados.
This disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force,
and the associated thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization. Conditions are expected to be favorable for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form tonight or Wednesday. The system is moving westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and is expected to pass over the
Windward Islands on Wednesday morning, and move over the
southeastern Caribbean Sea late Wednesday and Thursday. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system again on Wednesday morning.

Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, Bonaire,
Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South America
should monitor the progress of this disturbance, and consult
products issued by your national meteorological service, which
could include tropical storm warnings or watches. Regardless of
whether the system is a tropical wave or a tropical cyclone, heavy
rains and tropical-storm-force winds in squalls are expected to
spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern
Leeward Islands, beginning tonight and continuing through
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[drewschmaltz]

These posts are from Karl. The models were predicting a major. Hermine at times was suppose to become a major. Heck, It seems like everything this year that's forecasted to become a hurricane is forecasted to RI. What makes 97L different? Why do we believe the models when they show such a deep system? I understand that it will organize and form, but ...

viewtopic.php?f=84&t=118313&p=2540634#p2540634

viewtopic.php?f=84&t=118313&start=480#p2540356

My thought is that we are reading these model outputs before we have storms and their intensity guidance is suspect. I have read posts about the models not needing a well defined LLC, but it appears that once the storm actually forms, the guidance trends significantly downwards - and then gradually creeps up a tad if the storm remains a going concern. I'm very interested in what the models show post genesis.

[JtSmarts]

This is a good time to back and revisit the Hermine threads ten days out just to see how off they can be.

This the models thread around 18z time on August 23 about 10 days before Hermine's actual landfall.

viewtopic.php?f=84&t=118167&start=2140

[hurricanehunter69]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 The latest NHC TWO is very significant in that the 5-day cone no longer bends south and still does not bend North....The cone also ends at about 76.5W. The magic number for a US impact could be about 78W; So this is definitely developing into a concerning situation. A terrible event could unfold if this thing makes it to the NW Caribbean with good upper level support.

[SeGaBob]

The TWO mentions something forming tonight or tomorrow...but they won't pull the trigger without recon tonight so they shouldn't have even put that in there.
I personally think this is a TS now.

[floridasun78]

stay safe, Abajan

Be safe and dry . Do not let your guard down.

Thanks Barbara and Gusty. Currently, it looks like Guadeloupe will get quite a bit of weather from this system, judging by the latest satellite imagery.

be safe i see going stormy on islands their saying could be getting ts wind some islands

[RL3AO]

The TWO mentions something forming tonight or tomorrow...but they won't pull the trigger without recon tonight so they shouldn't have even put that in there.

An ascat pass or strong convection with banding would be enough to upgrade.

[jlauderdal]

The TWO mentions something forming tonight or tomorrow...but they won't pull the trigger without recon tonight so they shouldn't have even put that in there.
I personally think this is a TS now.

they would pull the trigger without recon especially with it bearing down on Barbados although listening to Barbados radio they are already shutting everything down tonight and all day tomorrow regardless of a named system...smart move..Caribbean countries dont fool around and getting caught up in the minutia

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF straight north along 74 west from hour 120 to 126...shoots the gap between Cuba and Haiti.

[RL3AO]

The ascending ascat passes are off west Africa. So we may get a pass of the invest around 3 or 4 Z.

[ScottNAtlanta]

How long do you think it should be before this gets within Barbados radar range?

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1475020830

[msbee]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical wave extends from 08N56W to 19N53W moving W at 15 kt. A
1008 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 13N with global
model data indicating 700 mb troughing between 50W-58W on the
southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored near 24N49W. 850
mb relative vorticity is also maximized in the vicinity of the
low center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 11N-17N between 50W-57W. Regardless of tropical cyclone
development...near gale to gale force winds are forecast to
develop by 28/0600 UTC as the low approaches Barbados with heavy
rainfall anticipated for the many of the Lesser Antilles. See
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

[abajan]

[tolakram]

IR loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=17&lon=-54&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=600&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=yellow

[Medtronic15]

18z HWRF
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1609271200

[tolakram]

I'm going to say that by all appearances this appears to be starting to improve in organization more than it was this afternoon.

[sunnyday]

Some of the models are showing a hit on New York now, so does that mean Florida has dodged another bullet?

[SeGaBob]

I'm going to say that by all appearances this appears to be starting to improve in organization more than it was this afternoon.

I agree

[AxaltaRacing24]

Some of the models are showing a hit on New York now, so does that mean Florida has dodged another bullet?

The bullet will be dodged once the storm has passed by. Until then the bullet has not even been shot yet so it's impossible to dodge it for now.

[stormreader]

Making final approach to Islands, into Carribean tomorrow.