ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

92L is reactivated.

AL, 92, 2016090912, , BEST, 0, 240N, 794W, 25, 1014, LO

[Aric Dunn]

Shear drops off quite a bit to the west of key west. could have decent shot later tonight and tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 92L is reactivated

[Aric Dunn]

THe models will likely pick up on it for the 18z run now that it has a closed circ and will be initialized as such.

Also yet another instance where shear has helped produce a system..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

92L is currently in an area of 25 knot high shear but looks to be moving into an area of lower 10 knot shear.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... d=shr&zoom

[cycloneye]

[PTrackerLA]

THe models will likely pick up on it for the 18z run now that it has a closed circ and will be initialized as such.

Also yet another instance where shear has helped produce a system..

Does this actually occur? I've heard some on here saying models like GFS and EURO don't need a closed circulation to model storms correctly but other times people say just the opposite. Regardless I'm impressed with the appearance today I will be watching closely over the weekend.

[Nimbus]

Thank you Luis!

If WXman57 wants to wait before upgrading this to a depression its OK with me.
Hermine 72 hour forecast by the NHC was spot on last time..

[Aric Dunn]

THe models will likely pick up on it for the 18z run now that it has a closed circ and will be initialized as such.

Also yet another instance where shear has helped produce a system..

Does this actually occur? I've heard some on here saying models like GFS and EURO don't need a closed circulation to model storms correctly but other times people say just the opposite. Regardless I'm impressed with the appearance today I will be watching closely over the weekend.

Too an extent yes. for this situation the models dont initialize a closed low so that will be inputted along with all available data which will change things. with a large well defined wave typically they dont need a well defined circ.

[MississippiWx]

Looking at the GFS 200mb wind forecast, 92L should be moving into an area of lighter (still marginal) wind shear with anticyclonic flow aloft. Just like with Hermine, however, it will likely be able to help itself with the generation of more thunderstorms. 92L will be hugging the periphery of a small upper level anticyclone, so it may not ever shed the hostile upper level winds unless it's able to generate enough thunderstorms to help tug the anticyclone towards it.

[cycloneye]

LLC is exposed right now.

[cycloneye]

Satellite wind data indicate that low pressure located in the
Straits of Florida is producing squalls of 30 to 35 mph east of its
center. If the system's thunderstorm activity persists or increases
in organization, it could result in the formation of a tropical
depression later today or Saturday. However, even if a depression
forms, upper-level winds are not favorable for significant
development while the system moves westward into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. This system could produce squalls and gusty winds
in the Florida Keys tonight and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Aric Dunn]

up to 40%

[WeatherEmperor]

Look at the NHC's wording "it could result in the formation of a tropical depression later today or Saturday"
Wow that went fast.

[Caneman12]

I expect this to become a depression by tomorrow then a storm once in the gulf

[terstorm1012]

I figured this is exactly what would happen with 92L last week---and here we are!

[abajan]

Of the three invests, I think this is the one we really need to keep an eye on.

[CrazyC83]

If this is indeed containing a closed circulation, advisories on TD 10 would need to start as soon as possible since a Tropical Storm Warning would be needed for some areas.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2016090918, , BEST, 0, 241N, 802W, 30, 1013, LO

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/774318779723554816