ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Looking at the exact track of the Euro for day 10 is silly. However, take away the big picture. It has a strong tropical wave in the Bahamas in 4 or 5 days. It has the system underneath a ridge in a favorable to very favorable environment. This needs to be watched very very closely.

If the model trends continue, I would fully expect the Miami EM's to start getting stuff into motion behind the scenes by Wednesday.

[StormHunter72]

Some people are saying that this could be the end to Florida's drought season. The east coast of the state has been in a so-called hurricane drought for several years. Why would it change now?
Most times a storm threatens at all, some of the models show it hitting the state. Most of those times, the storm goes elsewhere. Does anyone here feel any leanings toward or against a Florida storm this time?




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

against it for now due to the windshield wiper syndrome the models are doing. Recon data when imputed will show us a clearer picture.

[deltadog03]

Hey everyone!! Hows it been going? Well, the Wheaties box goes to the 12z euro run today, huh? IMHO, GFS (todays run) looks lost. The system looks better now vs what GFS is trying to show.

[StormHunter72]

Looking at the exact track of the Euro for day 10 is silly. However, take away the big picture. It has a strong tropical wave in the Bahamas in 4 or 5 days. It has the system underneath a ridge in a favorable to very favorable environment. This needs to be watched very very closely.

If the model trends continue, I would fully expect the Miami EM's to start getting stuff into motion behind the scenes by Wednesday.

Tha'ts the point there have been no trends.

[chaser1]

Some people are saying that this could be the end to Florida's drought season. The east coast of the state has been in a so-called hurricane drought for several years. Why would it change now?
Most times a storm threatens at all, some of the models show it hitting the state. Most of those times, the storm goes elsewhere. Does anyone here feel any leanings toward or against a Florida storm this time?

yep; leaning toward florida landfall




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at the exact track of the Euro for day 10 is silly. However, take away the big picture. It has a strong tropical wave in the Bahamas in 4 or 5 days. It has the system underneath a ridge in a favorable to very favorable environment. This needs to be watched very very closely.

If the model trends continue, I would fully expect the Miami EM's to start getting stuff into motion behind the scenes by Wednesday.

Tha'ts the point there have been no trends.

There has been one trend that has been pretty consistent...The big ridge over the Carolina's. If that continues, whatever shape or form 99L is in when it is in the Bahamas is coming west to Florida. The big question now is what form will it be? A wave, a TD, TS, or hurricane. The environment looks to be very favorable for the Bahamas. I'd say that the main thing going against it is the possibility of dry air, unfavorable MJO, and trying to consolidate its massive size.

SFT

[alienstorm]

99L starting to get organized this afternoon, if this trends continue I say we have a TD tomorrow.

[RL3AO]

Some people are saying that this could be the end to Florida's drought season. The east coast of the state has been in a so-called hurricane drought for several years. Why would it change now?
Most times a storm threatens at all, some of the models show it hitting the state. Most of those times, the storm goes elsewhere. Does anyone here feel any leanings toward or against a Florida storm this time?

- "Our city never gets hit by a hurricane"
- "Our town is never hit by a tornado"
- "It's never flooded at my house, I don't need to prepare"

You're falling into the standard weather related fallacy. Something hasn't happened recently therefore it is unlikely to happen.

[centuryv58]

Some people are saying that this could be the end to Florida's drought season. The east coast of the state has been in a so-called hurricane drought for several years. Why would it change now?
Most times a storm threatens at all, some of the models show it hitting the state. Most of those times, the storm goes elsewhere. Does anyone here feel any leanings toward or against a Florida storm this time?

- "Our city never gets hit by a hurricane"
- "Our town is never hit by a tornado"
- "It's never flooded at my house, I don't need to prepare"

You're falling into the standard weather related fallacy. Something hasn't happened recently therefore it is unlikely to happen.

I agree, BUT I'd still like it to wait a while longer Maybe 10 more years..

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami discussion due out in the next hour or two. Curious what they say given the ECMWF and model trends.

Being 7 days out I doubt they will mention it.

Yep you are right. They mentioned but no details. Notice they mention the ridge. Wording "afternoon showers and
thunderstorm mainly over the interior and west Gulf coast" is like a broken record this summer.

By next weekend, ridge over the southeast stretches across the
central plains keeping easterly flow across S Florida through the
weekend. Moisture content return to 1.5 inches of pw`s over the area
enhancing Atlantic sea breeze with afternoon showers and
thunderstorm mainly over the interior and west Gulf coast. A
tropical wave 750 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is forecast
to move west to nw at 15 to 20 mph. The NHC has a 50 percent
chance of development for the next 5 days as it moves closer to
Hispaniola and the southeastern and central Bahamas. Stay tuned
for any updates on how this wave progresses this week.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[RL3AO]

Some people are saying that this could be the end to Florida's drought season. The east coast of the state has been in a so-called hurricane drought for several years. Why would it change now?
Most times a storm threatens at all, some of the models show it hitting the state. Most of those times, the storm goes elsewhere. Does anyone here feel any leanings toward or against a Florida storm this time?

- "Our city never gets hit by a hurricane"
- "Our town is never hit by a tornado"
- "It's never flooded at my house, I don't need to prepare"

You're falling into the standard weather related fallacy. Something hasn't happened recently therefore it is unlikely to happen.

I agree, BUT I'd still like it to wait a while longer May 10 more years..

It shows MIami being hit in 6 days (obviously with a weaker system). If the model trend continues, this becomes a story as soon as tomorrow.

[JtSmarts]

Hey everyone!! Hows it been going? Well, the Wheaties box goes to the 12z euro run today, huh? IMHO, GFS (todays run) looks lost. The system looks better now vs what GFS is trying to show.

Delta! So glad to you see with us this season. I'm still hoping for a good winter for us in the SE eventually.

99 definitely has that look of a developing system, I'm making sure to snag all the images I can for my personal archive.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a decent pass. I have outlined the broad rotation best i could given the lack of convective organization presently( but improving). some noticeable features though.. the inflow band seems to be becoming more defined on the SE side of the broad circ. could be a focusing point over the next 12 hours for a LLC to develop. time will tell. might be perfect timing for recon tomorrow.

[deltadog03]

Here is a decent pass. I have outlined the broad rotation best i could given the lack of convective organization presently( but improving). some noticeable features though.. the inflow band seems to be becoming more defined on the SE side of the broad circ. could be a focusing point over the next 12 hours for a LLC to develop. time will tell. might be perfect timing for recon tomorrow.

https://s16.postimg.io/xdoof9hb9/201608 ... _1011m.jpg

Looks good bud...I just can't see this completely falling apart...

[chaser1]

I agree Aric; looks strucurally pretty good but on the flip side however, the convection is getting pretty soft too. Maybe simply a reflecton of its going through its cycles but at the same time it really is bumped up against that dry air to its immediate west. Even more than that though, I'm thinking that present images appear to show that the upper level shear has kicked it up a notch?? I could be wrong there but just thought the last few frames seemed to have blown a few tops off. Thoughts?

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a decent pass. I have outlined the broad rotation best i could given the lack of convective organization presently( but improving). some noticeable features though.. the inflow band seems to be becoming more defined on the SE side of the broad circ. could be a focusing point over the next 12 hours for a LLC to develop. time will tell. might be perfect timing for recon tomorrow.

https://s16.postimg.io/xdoof9hb9/201608 ... _1011m.jpg

Looks good bud...I just can't see this completely falling apart...

not likely, unless it pulls in more dry air from somewhere

[gatorcane]

The biggest challenge looking at potential Bahamas and even Florida impacts possibly down the road lies with the fact this system probably won't be a well-defined storm or hurricane as it approaches the Bahamas. The possibility could be there for rapid intensification once in the Bahamas and on the approach into the Gulf/FL/SE U.S....sometimes it is difficult to convince folks of what could be and precautions to take when there is no real thing to look at on the backdrop of the hurricane drought Florida has been in for the past 10 years. This certainly could be a challenging situation for the NHC on this one.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[deltadog03]

Here is a decent pass. I have outlined the broad rotation best i could given the lack of convective organization presently( but improving). some noticeable features though.. the inflow band seems to be becoming more defined on the SE side of the broad circ. could be a focusing point over the next 12 hours for a LLC to develop. time will tell. might be perfect timing for recon tomorrow.

https://s16.postimg.io/xdoof9hb9/201608 ... _1011m.jpg

Looks good bud...I just can't see this completely falling apart...

not likely, unless it pulls in more dry air from somewhere

Agreed...and the way the moisture looks around this...its pretty good...

[scogor]

Good afternoon, all! It's been awhile since I've posted but I've got both a long term and short term interest in 99L. The old timers on the board may recall that I'm one of the lucky souls living in paradise (aka the west central coast of Florida) and obviously the location and strength of 99L (or whatever it has by then) is of more than a passing concern. As for the short term, I'm posting this from the balcony of our time share unit overlooking the Atlantic at Frigate's Bay in St. Kitts. We know that Tuesday night through Thursday are going to be interesting here to say the least--and I certainly appreciate the up to the minute reports on what appears to be a strengthening 99L as it approaches the islands...Keep posting, everyone and if needed I'll post reports if I can when 99L arrives here!

[TheStormExpert]

The biggest challenge looking at potential Bahamas and even Florida impacts possibly down the road lies with the fact this system probably won't be a well-defined storm or hurricane as it approaches the Bahamas like we saw with Frances and Jeanne in 2004. The possibility could be there for rapid intensification once in the Bahamas and on the approach into the Gulf/FL/SE U.S....sometimes it is difficult to convince folks of what could be and precautions to take when there is no real thing to look at on the backdrop of the hurricane drought Florida has been in for the past 10 years. This certainly could be a challenging situation for the NHC on this one.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Unfortunately most folks do not really start to pay attention until they see the 'Cone of Uncertainty' bearing down on their area, the spaghetti plots don't do the justice.