CPAC: DARBY - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

Why did they decide to fly a relatively weak storm at 700 anyway? Normally a storm like this is flown at 850 or 925.

They are now down to 5,500 ft.

[cycloneye]

Oh 50+kt winds.

URPN15 KNHC 221942
AF308 0105E DARBY HDOB 25 20160722
193330 1902N 14930W 8278 01720 //// +148 //// 145046 047 038 000 01
193400 1904N 14930W 8273 01725 //// +150 //// 144044 045 037 000 01
193430 1906N 14929W 8274 01725 //// +150 //// 144044 045 038 000 05
193500 1908N 14928W 8273 01727 //// +150 //// 144045 046 039 000 01
193530 1911N 14928W 8273 01727 //// +142 //// 144048 049 038 000 05
193600 1913N 14927W 8278 01723 //// +132 //// 137049 050 038 000 01
193630 1915N 14927W 8274 01728 //// +135 //// 135047 049 039 000 01
193700 1917N 14926W 8270 01734 //// +139 //// 133044 045 035 001 01
193730 1919N 14925W 8273 01732 //// +124 //// 126042 044 037 003 01
193800 1921N 14925W 8268 01739 0126 +146 //// 125044 050 041 006 01
193830 1923N 14924W 8283 01721 0126 +152 //// 130051 053 047 015 01
193900 1925N 14924W 8271 01734 0128 +151 +151 132054 055 046 018 00
193930 1927N 14923W 8275 01730 0131 +148 +148 119049 054 046 017 00
194000 1929N 14923W 8268 01734 0132 +142 //// 120049 050 040 014 01
194030 1930N 14922W 8277 01727 0125 +134 //// 124049 050 040 005 01
194100 1932N 14922W 8275 01732 //// +128 //// 124046 049 038 004 01
194130 1934N 14921W 8272 01734 //// +131 //// 120046 047 037 000 01
194200 1936N 14921W 8264 01744 //// +132 //// 117047 047 037 000 01
194230 1938N 14920W 8278 01732 0116 +144 +130 117046 047 035 000 00
194300 1940N 14920W 8268 01743 0119 +142 +128 121048 049 033 000 00
$$

[wxman57]

Why did they decide to fly a relatively weak storm at 700 anyway? Normally a storm like this is flown at 850 or 925.

They were being cautious on this first flight, as Darby's intensity was uncertain, I'm sure.

[cycloneye]

This is good.

055 046 018 00

[cycloneye]

[Kingarabian]

50kts and 1000mb should be good for the next advisory.

[Yellow Evan]

The CPHC will pull something like "Although the center is poorly defined and recon only finding 40kt winds, Dvorak from the JTWC is this and this so we will keep the pressure at 999mb and winds at 50kts".

This, though 45 is for sure justifiable now.

[wxman57]

Yeah, those 50kt SFMR winds were 10-second winds, not 1-min winds. Realistic 1-min wind may be around 45 kts or less. I'm sure CPHC will carry it at 50kts, as they won't like to indicate a weakening storm ahead of landfall.

Note that all dynamic models, including the consensus track, are well west of CPHC's track - right across the central or western part of the Big Island. UKMET is south of the island.

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 221952
AF308 0105E DARBY HDOB 26 20160722
194330 1942N 14919W 8279 01732 0118 +146 +118 122048 049 033 000 03
194400 1944N 14918W 8278 01736 0122 +143 +122 117048 048 033 000 03
194430 1946N 14918W 8268 01745 0122 +140 +128 115047 048 033 000 03
194500 1948N 14917W 8279 01736 0122 +145 +127 114046 046 034 000 00
194530 1950N 14917W 8272 01745 0123 +147 +119 115046 046 034 000 03
194600 1952N 14916W 8275 01741 0120 +150 +104 114046 046 033 000 00
194630 1954N 14916W 8274 01742 0121 +150 +099 114045 046 034 000 00
194700 1956N 14915W 8273 01743 0121 +154 +099 114045 046 035 000 00
194730 1958N 14915W 8278 01741 0123 +155 +090 114046 047 034 000 03
194800 2000N 14914W 8268 01748 0122 +152 +095 114047 047 034 000 03
194830 2002N 14913W 8282 01736 0124 +151 +105 114047 047 035 000 03
194900 2004N 14913W 8272 01748 0127 +145 +133 112047 048 036 000 00
194930 2006N 14912W 8286 01734 0127 +149 +140 110046 047 034 000 03
195000 2007N 14913W 8273 01745 //// +145 //// 106046 046 /// /// 05
195030 2007N 14915W 8277 01741 0121 +148 +140 106044 045 /// /// 03
195100 2006N 14916W 8283 01736 0123 +147 +139 110042 044 032 000 00
195130 2004N 14917W 8277 01742 0121 +150 +122 110043 043 034 000 00
195200 2003N 14918W 8277 01742 0126 +150 +107 112043 044 033 000 00
195230 2002N 14919W 8275 01743 0125 +150 +112 110043 043 033 000 00
195300 2000N 14921W 8276 01742 0123 +153 +100 112043 043 033 000 03

[Kingarabian]

Yeah, those 50kt SFMR winds were 10-second winds, not 1-min winds. Realistic 1-min wind may be around 45 kts or less. I'm sure CPHC will carry it at 50kts, as they won't like to indicate a weakening storm ahead of landfall.

Note that all dynamic models, including the consensus track, are well west of CPHC's track - right across the central or western part of the Big Island. UKMET is south of the island.

They're strictly following the GFS it seems. They've completed ignored the Euro ever since the NHC handed the system over.

[cycloneye]

000
URPN15 KNHC 222002
AF308 0105E DARBY HDOB 27 20160722
195330 1959N 14922W 8275 01742 0123 +153 +093 111042 042 033 000 00
195400 1958N 14923W 8275 01742 0124 +149 +103 110042 043 033 000 00
195430 1957N 14925W 8278 01739 0124 +149 +110 110043 043 034 000 00
195500 1955N 14926W 8274 01742 0123 +150 +104 109043 044 034 000 00
195530 1954N 14928W 8275 01741 0122 +149 +101 109044 044 034 000 00
195600 1953N 14929W 8275 01739 0123 +143 +116 109043 043 035 000 00
195630 1952N 14930W 8275 01738 0123 +143 +124 110044 045 036 000 00
195700 1950N 14932W 8275 01738 0120 +146 +120 109044 045 037 000 00
195730 1949N 14933W 8275 01734 0120 +144 +114 113044 045 040 000 00
195800 1948N 14934W 8273 01738 0125 +132 +127 112046 046 038 000 01
195830 1947N 14936W 8275 01736 0123 +134 //// 111046 047 039 001 01
195900 1945N 14937W 8278 01731 0134 +128 //// 110046 047 040 006 01
195930 1944N 14938W 8278 01732 0133 +139 +139 116047 048 040 009 00
200000 1943N 14939W 8275 01732 0131 +142 +142 121046 047 042 012 00
200030 1942N 14941W 8275 01732 0131 +143 +143 120046 046 043 019 00
200100 1940N 14942W 8276 01728 0127 +145 +145 119047 048 045 015 00
200130 1939N 14943W 8276 01728 0127 +146 +146 118049 050 044 014 00
200200 1938N 14945W 8278 01725 0125 +147 +147 120051 054 043 013 00
200230 1937N 14946W 8276 01731 0129 +150 +150 128045 050 044 010 03
200300 1936N 14947W 8276 01731 0128 +143 //// 130045 047 043 006 01
$$

[wxman57]

Yeah, those 50kt SFMR winds were 10-second winds, not 1-min winds. Realistic 1-min wind may be around 45 kts or less. I'm sure CPHC will carry it at 50kts, as they won't like to indicate a weakening storm ahead of landfall.

Note that all dynamic models, including the consensus track, are well west of CPHC's track - right across the central or western part of the Big Island. UKMET is south of the island.

They're strictly following the GFS it seems. They've completed ignored the Euro ever since the NHC handed the system over.

I think they were following the consensus line, which was near the east coast. That consensus has shifted west of the center of the island, now.

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 222012
AF308 0105E DARBY HDOB 28 20160722
200330 1935N 14948W 8274 01732 //// +134 //// 131043 045 040 004 01
200400 1933N 14950W 8275 01730 //// +142 //// 133041 042 039 001 01
200430 1932N 14951W 8276 01730 //// +144 //// 131043 043 037 000 05
200500 1931N 14952W 8274 01731 //// +148 //// 126045 046 038 000 05
200530 1930N 14953W 8277 01727 //// +131 //// 123045 046 040 000 01
200600 1929N 14955W 8275 01728 //// +134 //// 124048 049 040 000 01
200630 1928N 14956W 8273 01728 //// +142 //// 126045 046 041 000 01
200700 1926N 14957W 8274 01726 //// +151 //// 130046 048 042 001 01
200730 1925N 14958W 8274 01726 //// +150 //// 128049 049 042 001 05
200800 1924N 15000W 8279 01719 //// +147 //// 130048 049 044 001 01
200830 1923N 15001W 8275 01722 //// +142 //// 132050 052 044 001 01
200900 1922N 15002W 8275 01720 0104 +145 //// 138048 051 044 003 01
200930 1921N 15003W 8273 01720 //// +143 //// 142045 047 045 004 01
201000 1920N 15004W 8278 01715 //// +145 //// 145043 043 045 001 01
201030 1918N 15006W 8272 01719 //// +149 //// 141046 047 043 000 01
201100 1917N 15007W 8277 01716 //// +147 //// 143044 046 042 000 05
201130 1916N 15008W 8271 01720 //// +147 //// 141042 043 040 000 01
201200 1915N 15009W 8279 01711 //// +152 //// 143044 044 039 000 05
201230 1914N 15010W 8277 01715 0084 +153 +152 144045 046 038 000 05
201300 1913N 15011W 8275 01715 0085 +155 +150 145046 046 038 000 03
$$

[cycloneye]

[Kingarabian]

Yeah, those 50kt SFMR winds were 10-second winds, not 1-min winds. Realistic 1-min wind may be around 45 kts or less. I'm sure CPHC will carry it at 50kts, as they won't like to indicate a weakening storm ahead of landfall.

Note that all dynamic models, including the consensus track, are well west of CPHC's track - right across the central or western part of the Big Island. UKMET is south of the island.

They're strictly following the GFS it seems. They've completed ignored the Euro ever since the NHC handed the system over.

I think they were following the consensus line, which was near the east coast. That consensus has shifted west of the center of the island, now.

Oh I see. Is the ECMWF not included in the consensus? Because that consensus line is too easy in the first place.

Do you think dry air will continue to eat it thus weaken it further before landfall? Or do you think it'll be able to maintain its intensity especially if it moves west/sw of the CPHC track?

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 222022
AF308 0105E DARBY HDOB 29 20160722
201330 1912N 15013W 8275 01715 0083 +155 +146 145046 046 039 000 00
201400 1911N 15014W 8277 01712 0080 +160 +145 146044 046 042 000 00
201430 1910N 15015W 8275 01712 0081 +157 +143 143044 046 043 000 00
201500 1909N 15016W 8276 01710 0080 +157 +145 142044 044 043 000 00
201530 1907N 15017W 8275 01709 0081 +155 +149 143045 046 042 000 00
201600 1906N 15018W 8281 01702 0072 +161 +151 144044 046 043 000 03
201630 1905N 15020W 8276 01705 0071 +163 +150 143043 043 048 000 00
201700 1905N 15020W 8276 01705 0071 +160 +155 144043 043 048 000 03
201730 1903N 15022W 8277 01703 0066 +160 +156 146043 043 047 000 01
201800 1902N 15023W 8275 01703 0066 +160 +156 146043 044 046 000 00
201830 1901N 15024W 8274 01704 0067 +158 +158 145044 044 048 000 01
201900 1900N 15025W 8279 01697 0063 +163 +159 149043 044 048 000 00
201930 1859N 15027W 8275 01700 0060 +167 +156 148042 043 048 000 03
202000 1858N 15028W 8277 01699 0060 +166 +155 146041 042 048 000 03
202030 1856N 15029W 8273 01702 0058 +168 +156 146039 041 048 000 03
202100 1855N 15030W 8276 01697 0053 +174 +153 144038 039 048 000 03
202130 1854N 15031W 8279 01692 0049 +175 +152 149036 036 049 000 00
202200 1853N 15032W 8278 01692 0049 +175 +153 152035 036 050 000 00
202230 1852N 15034W 8275 01693 0046 +175 +154 151034 034 051 000 00
202300 1851N 15035W 8281 01686 0043 +179 +153 155034 035 051 000 03
$$

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 222032
AF308 0105E DARBY HDOB 30 20160722
202330 1850N 15036W 8273 01693 0040 +181 +153 154032 034 /// /// 03
202400 1849N 15037W 8277 01689 0038 +185 +151 152030 032 051 000 03
202430 1848N 15039W 8275 01688 0033 +189 +149 150029 030 051 000 03
202500 1847N 15040W 8277 01686 0030 +193 +146 147027 028 050 000 00
202530 1846N 15042W 8275 01687 0027 +196 +144 145025 027 049 000 03
202600 1845N 15043W 8274 01688 0024 +201 +140 141023 024 050 000 03
202630 1844N 15044W 8275 01683 0019 +205 +135 142021 022 050 000 00
202700 1843N 15046W 8278 01681 0015 +210 +130 145021 022 047 000 00
202730 1842N 15047W 8274 01683 0013 +210 +125 141022 022 046 000 00
202800 1841N 15048W 8275 01681 0010 +213 +121 138023 024 047 000 00
202830 1840N 15050W 8275 01678 0006 +215 +120 130022 024 045 000 03
202900 1839N 15051W 8275 01677 0008 +213 +124 130018 023 044 000 00
202930 1838N 15052W 8277 01675 0007 +210 +125 128014 017 042 000 03
203000 1836N 15054W 8278 01673 0007 +210 +125 119013 014 039 000 03
203030 1835N 15055W 8275 01673 0005 +210 +121 103012 012 038 000 03
203100 1834N 15056W 8277 01672 0008 +205 +131 106005 011 034 000 03
203130 1832N 15056W 8275 01675 0009 +205 +144 142002 003 034 000 03
203200 1831N 15057W 8278 01671 0008 +204 +144 198003 004 033 000 03
203230 1829N 15057W 8274 01677 0011 +202 +142 211006 007 034 000 03
203300 1827N 15058W 8277 01676 0012 +200 +150 269010 013 035 000 03
$$

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 222042
AF308 0105E DARBY HDOB 31 20160722
203330 1826N 15058W 8278 01677 0013 +205 +141 263012 013 035 000 00
203400 1824N 15058W 8279 01676 0016 +204 +136 269017 019 026 000 03
203430 1823N 15059W 8277 01678 0019 +199 +133 273017 019 030 000 03
203500 1822N 15100W 8275 01682 0023 +195 +136 274017 018 030 000 00
203530 1821N 15101W 8275 01684 0027 +190 +140 271015 017 032 000 00
203600 1819N 15102W 8275 01682 0030 +185 +139 270016 016 032 000 00
203630 1818N 15104W 8278 01680 0033 +181 +141 269016 016 033 000 00
203700 1817N 15105W 8279 01681 0035 +180 +141 275016 017 034 000 00
203730 1816N 15106W 8275 01684 0036 +180 +140 285018 019 035 000 00
203800 1815N 15107W 8275 01684 0038 +176 +138 285022 023 037 000 00
203830 1814N 15109W 8276 01683 0040 +173 +142 286024 025 037 000 03
203900 1813N 15110W 8275 01686 0043 +168 +148 290021 024 033 000 00
203930 1812N 15111W 8277 01686 0047 +165 +150 292022 023 033 000 00
204000 1811N 15112W 8274 01689 0052 +160 +155 303024 024 032 000 00
204030 1810N 15113W 8273 01693 //// +150 //// 319028 031 034 000 01
204100 1809N 15115W 8278 01690 //// +142 //// 320029 030 034 000 01
204130 1808N 15116W 8272 01698 //// +155 //// 314024 028 035 000 01
204200 1807N 15117W 8274 01700 //// +153 //// 317023 024 034 000 01
204230 1805N 15119W 8277 01697 0060 +163 +152 309025 025 032 000 00
204300 1804N 15120W 8276 01698 0062 +162 +150 310025 025 032 000 00
$$

[wxman57]

CPHC's website isn't responding. Looks like they kept the 50kt initial wind (too high). Can't see their track yet.

Plotted their track - still east of all guidance right along the east coast of Hawaii.