ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR NICOLE HEADING FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 66.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Nicole was
located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 66.4 West. Nicole is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An increase
in forward speed is expected Thursday, followed by a turn toward the
northwest and a further increase in forward speed expected by
Thursday night. On the forecast track, the core of Nicole will pass
over or near Bermuda on Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215
km/h) with higher gusts. Nicole is an extremely dangerous category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little
change in strength is expected overnight, and Nicole is forecast to
be at major hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda. Some
weakening is expected to begin by late Tuesday.

Nicole has a large area of hurricane-force winds that extend outward
up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).

The latest estimated minimum central pressure from the aircraft is
950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda
Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
soon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days, and will spread northward along the United States
east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few days.
These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.
Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office
for more information.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda tonight and
early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN

[Hammy]

When's the last time there were two Cat 4 hurricanes in October?

[NDG]

My prayers for Bermuda, hopefully the eye will go to the east of them.

1:00 PM AST Wed Oct 12
Location: 30.1°N 66.4°W
Moving: NNE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

[TheAustinMan]

When's the last time there were two Cat 4 hurricanes in October?

I think for the Atlantic, this is the first time we've officially had two category 4 hurricanes in October. I don't see another instance of that occurring in HURDAT.

[abajan]

My prayers for Bermuda, hopefully the eye will go to the east of them.

1:00 PM AST Wed Oct 12
Location: 30.1°N 66.4°W
Moving: NNE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

According to the NHC, it should be a bit weaker by the time its eye nears Bermuda tomorrow morning, but it will still be a major hurricane. I still think its eye will pass just to the southeast instead of a directly over the island or to the northwest. Either way, they're unlikely to to escape getting slammed by the eyewall.

[NDG]

When's the last time there were two Cat 4 hurricanes in October?

Good question, I did a quick look up on recent active years: not '98, '04, '05, '07, '08, '10, '11 so this might be a first time ever.

[mpic]

Houston weather just said Nicole is a Cat 4?

[ohitsdatguy]

Nicole has a large area of hurricane-force winds that extend outward
up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).

Is that a larger windfield than Matthew?

[NDG]

My prayers for Bermuda, hopefully the eye will go to the east of them.

1:00 PM AST Wed Oct 12
Location: 30.1°N 66.4°W
Moving: NNE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

According to the NHC, it should be a bit weaker by the time its eye nears Bermuda tomorrow morning, but it will still be a major hurricane. I still think its eye will pass just to the southeast instead of a directly over the island or to the northwest. Either way, they're unlikely to to escape getting slammed by the eyewall.

And it was never forecasted to become a Major Hurricane by the NHC....

[Lifeless]

When's the last time there were two Cat 4 hurricanes in October?

I think for the Atlantic, this is the first time we've officially had two category 4 hurricanes in October. I don't see another instance of that occurring in HURDAT.

I believe 2001 was the closest, as there was a Cat 4 early in the month, and then a hurricane formed in late October, but I don't believe hit Cat 4 till very early November.

[CrazyC83]

Nicole has a large area of hurricane-force winds that extend outward
up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).

Is that a larger windfield than Matthew?

Until it approached Florida yes.

[hurricanes1234]

Now a category 4?!!!!

This is craziness!!! Wow!! Totally unbelievable!!!

[1900hurricane]

When's the last time there were two Cat 4 hurricanes in October?

I think for the Atlantic, this is the first time we've officially had two category 4 hurricanes in October. I don't see another instance of that occurring in HURDAT.

2001 came close, but Michelle had just ticked over into November when it became a category 4. 2000 was also close with Isaac being a category 4 in the last few days of September and Keith becoming a category 4 in early October. Both close, but not quite.

[txwatcher91]

This is why it's never wise to declare hurricane season over when storms struggle early on with shear... we have both Matthew and now Nicole as a category 5 and 4 at their peaks respectively. Matthew was deadly and devastating, let's hope Bermuda is ready for Nicole as a large strengthening category 4 is bad news.

[abajan]

Has Bermuda EVER had a direct impact from a Category 4 hurricane?

Haven't had a chance to peruse this lengthy article but it may mention such encounters.

[CrazyC83]

This is why it's never wise to declare hurricane season over when storms struggle early on with shear... we have both Matthew and now Nicole as a category 5 and 4 at their peaks respectively. Matthew was deadly and devastating, let's hope Bermuda is ready for Nicole as a large strengthening category 4 is bad news.

First time there are two recorded Cat 4+ storms in October. It is possible in the pre-satellite era there may have been such a season, but this is the first time such will be in HURDAT.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

New mission coming. Through 11:25pm EDT:

[EquusStorm]

Good lord

I agree, October has been brutal lately. I was thinking the same thing a week ago but now, yeah...

Having them form close to home that late in the season to increase the odds of a hit is one thing, but literally the most intense storms lately have been in October. In the east Pacific too. 1780 wasn't a fluke, it seems.

[NDG]

Between the large waves Nicole is producing and the strong NE winds off the eastern seaboard paints a not so pretty picture for Florida's problem of continuing beach erosion over the next few days.

[SouthFLTropics]

What was the last storm to make a direct hit on Bermuda? Was it Fabian? Between Matthew and Nicole the Atlantic has really racked up some ACE over the past two weeks.