CPAC: DARBY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Pressure down to 999.8 mbs.

URPN15 KNHC 221823
AF308 0105E DARBY HDOB 17 20160722
181330 1828N 15055W 6970 03147 0029 +108 +064 079006 006 049 000 03
181400 1830N 15055W 6969 03149 0028 +110 +059 058006 007 048 000 03
181430 1831N 15055W 6968 03147 0026 +110 +063 083003 005 048 000 03
181500 1833N 15054W 6970 03145 0025 +110 +062 098003 004 050 000 00
181530 1835N 15054W 6974 03141 0021 +115 +066 000004 005 048 000 00
181600 1837N 15054W 6962 03155 0047 +097 +079 002017 028 047 004 03
181630 1838N 15052W 6958 03156 0042 +095 +085 321013 027 049 006 00
181700 1839N 15051W 6991 03119 0073 +083 +083 300014 022 049 006 00
181730 1839N 15049W 6970 03144 0042 +095 +076 313018 023 051 003 00
181800 1840N 15047W 6969 03147 0033 +101 +080 297007 016 052 002 00
181830 1841N 15045W 6968 03145 0026 +101 +090 271006 007 048 002 01
181900 1842N 15044W 6963 03145 0021 +104 +090 245004 007 046 000 03
181930 1843N 15042W 6976 03130 0012 +112 +084 235002 003 039 000 00
182000 1844N 15041W 6978 03129 0009 +115 +079 167004 007 031 000 03
182030 1845N 15039W 6967 03139 0005 +115 +081 179010 012 029 000 00
182100 1846N 15037W 6976 03127 0002 +117 +089 146010 012 032 000 00
182130 1847N 15036W 6968 03136 0000 +115 +093 131014 016 032 000 00
182200 1847N 15034W 6976 03126 9998 +119 +083 116018 020 032 000 00
182230 1848N 15033W 6970 03129 0003 +113 +086 124015 024 035 000 00
182300 1849N 15031W 6967 03132 0011 +102 +091 154016 018 038 000 00

[cycloneye]

Pressure down to 999.8 mbs.

[Alyono]

999.8

there is not a well defined center at 700mb. They may need to do a low level invest

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 221833
AF308 0105E DARBY HDOB 18 20160722
182330 1850N 15030W 6971 03128 0013 +104 +090 155014 017 040 000 00
182400 1851N 15028W 6969 03133 0018 +098 +092 168014 015 046 000 05
182430 1852N 15026W 6970 03133 //// +091 //// 163013 015 047 000 05
182500 1854N 15025W 6967 03138 //// +084 //// 134015 016 /// /// 05
182530 1855N 15027W 6968 03135 0018 +099 +098 110022 025 044 001 01
182600 1855N 15029W 6972 03130 0014 +102 +093 097025 028 045 000 01
182630 1855N 15031W 6970 03135 0020 +102 +091 086031 033 045 000 00
182700 1855N 15033W 6973 03132 //// +088 //// 093029 036 043 000 01
182730 1855N 15035W 6972 03134 0027 +097 +094 095021 024 044 000 01
182800 1856N 15037W 6967 03136 //// +093 //// 076023 025 044 000 01
182830 1855N 15039W 6968 03138 0026 +095 +092 069029 030 041 000 05
182900 1855N 15041W 6969 03135 0028 +095 +092 075030 032 039 000 00
182930 1855N 15043W 6967 03141 0024 +101 +090 072031 033 042 000 00
183000 1854N 15045W 6967 03140 0016 +108 +083 073027 030 049 002 00
183030 1853N 15047W 6964 03145 0018 +110 +074 076023 025 051 000 00
183100 1852N 15049W 6963 03147 0011 +117 +063 074027 028 050 001 00
183130 1850N 15051W 6977 03132 0014 +114 +081 081027 029 049 000 03
183200 1848N 15051W 6968 03141 0005 +120 +081 079021 025 050 001 00
183230 1847N 15050W 6978 03129 0018 +109 +088 095011 018 051 001 00
183300 1845N 15049W 6963 03150 0025 +100 +098 142004 009 050 000 05
$$

[NDG]

Pressure down to 999.8 mbs.

That's very suspect, IMO.

[gatorcane]

Looking pretty weak, saved loop:

[wxman57]

1-min surface winds may be only 40-45 kts. It'll probably be weaker than that when it reaches Hawaii tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 221842
AF308 0105E DARBY HDOB 19 20160722
183330 1844N 15048W 6967 03140 0020 +102 +093 201005 007 040 000 05
183400 1845N 15046W 6966 03143 0016 +108 +085 202009 010 039 000 00
183430 1845N 15044W 6966 03141 0010 +113 +083 203008 009 029 000 03
183500 1845N 15042W 6970 03138 0012 +111 +084 213008 008 028 000 00
183530 1846N 15040W 6963 03146 0007 +117 +077 196008 009 031 000 03
183600 1846N 15038W 6966 03143 0011 +113 +084 196009 010 032 000 03
183630 1846N 15037W 6966 03141 0020 +103 +093 219012 013 026 000 00
183700 1845N 15035W 6970 03136 0025 +098 +098 227014 015 026 000 05
183730 1844N 15033W 6967 03141 0023 +100 +097 223015 017 039 000 00
183800 1843N 15032W 6969 03136 //// +096 //// 223016 018 038 000 05
183830 1842N 15032W 6967 03134 0019 +094 +090 238013 015 029 000 05
183900 1840N 15033W 6978 03119 0016 +101 +084 247012 014 030 000 03
183930 1839N 15034W 6957 03144 0019 +097 +084 253011 012 030 000 00
184000 1838N 15036W 6975 03121 0013 +104 +065 255011 013 030 000 00
184030 1837N 15037W 6968 03134 0012 +109 +057 275013 016 028 000 03
184100 1836N 15038W 6959 03144 0015 +104 +064 281016 019 025 000 03
184130 1835N 15040W 6945 03156 0015 +103 +064 283020 025 023 000 00
184200 1834N 15041W 6971 03121 0014 +104 +057 288020 023 026 000 00
184230 1832N 15042W 6978 03124 0010 +113 +055 291022 023 030 000 03
184300 1831N 15044W 6959 03145 0025 +099 +060 293016 020 033 000 00
$$

[Kingarabian]

This thing seems to be moving well to the SW of the CPHC track.

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 221852
AF308 0105E DARBY HDOB 20 20160722
184330 1830N 15045W 6978 03127 0028 +099 +060 294016 017 036 000 00
184400 1829N 15046W 6971 03136 0023 +104 +062 297020 023 039 000 00
184430 1828N 15048W 6975 03133 0031 +099 +071 312020 024 043 001 00
184500 1827N 15049W 6966 03147 0022 +108 +069 302018 023 042 002 00
184530 1825N 15050W 6961 03152 0021 +109 +067 330007 011 045 001 00
184600 1824N 15052W 6965 03147 0024 +110 +063 035001 007 046 000 00
184630 1823N 15053W 6971 03136 0028 +104 +080 092001 008 047 000 00
184700 1822N 15055W 6977 03134 0030 +105 +076 108003 005 046 000 00
184730 1821N 15056W 6966 03150 0028 +109 +068 126006 007 043 000 00
184800 1820N 15058W 7143 02952 0039 +121 +083 134003 005 041 000 00
184830 1819N 15059W 7393 02661 0044 +135 +087 043004 005 041 000 03
184900 1819N 15101W 7612 02414 0039 +154 +092 022006 007 /// /// 03
184930 1821N 15100W 7826 02182 0043 +170 +111 016009 010 039 000 00
185000 1822N 15059W 8039 01951 0040 +184 +123 009011 012 039 000 03
185030 1822N 15057W 8141 01835 0028 +198 +127 025010 012 041 000 00
185100 1823N 15056W 8244 01726 0025 +206 +129 008012 013 042 000 03
185130 1824N 15054W 8291 01667 0017 +213 +132 001010 013 045 000 00
185200 1825N 15053W 8265 01695 0016 +211 +133 016004 008 046 001 00
185230 1825N 15051W 8279 01677 0012 +214 +129 309003 004 046 001 00
185300 1826N 15049W 8274 01681 0011 +208 +130 240008 011 044 002 00
$$

[NDG]

No Vortex yet tells me that they are having a tough time finding the true COC, is very elongated IMO.
Still no flight level winds above 40 knots found yet.

[cycloneye]

Decended a little bit more.

URPN15 KNHC 221902
AF308 0105E DARBY HDOB 21 20160722
185330 1827N 15048W 8280 01675 0015 +202 +133 240010 011 041 002 00
185400 1828N 15046W 8282 01672 0013 +203 +132 239011 012 035 000 03
185430 1827N 15045W 8268 01683 0014 +197 +132 237009 011 029 000 00
185500 1826N 15043W 8277 01673 0016 +195 +135 238011 012 027 000 00
185530 1825N 15042W 8277 01673 0017 +190 +138 224013 014 024 000 00
185600 1824N 15040W 8282 01670 0020 +187 +139 223013 015 021 000 00
185630 1823N 15039W 8275 01675 0020 +185 +140 219017 019 023 000 00
185700 1822N 15038W 8275 01673 0022 +180 +142 210021 023 026 000 00
185730 1820N 15037W 8279 01669 0018 +189 +137 209024 025 026 000 00
185800 1819N 15035W 8279 01670 0010 +203 +135 198021 022 026 000 00
185830 1818N 15034W 8270 01681 0008 +206 +133 196020 021 026 000 00
185900 1817N 15033W 8281 01670 0009 +206 +131 196020 021 025 000 00
185930 1816N 15032W 8275 01680 0015 +202 +134 200019 020 025 000 00
190000 1815N 15030W 8278 01677 0017 +200 +138 203020 021 025 000 00
190030 1814N 15029W 8270 01688 0020 +198 +142 209022 022 026 000 00
190100 1813N 15028W 8285 01673 0024 +193 +143 211022 023 029 001 00
190130 1812N 15027W 8274 01686 0028 +190 +148 204022 023 031 000 00
190200 1811N 15025W 8280 01681 0036 +180 +152 205024 025 032 004 00
190230 1810N 15024W 8274 01690 0043 +173 +158 202022 024 030 005 00
190300 1809N 15023W 8273 01693 0044 +175 +158 209022 023 029 006 00
$$

[Kingarabian]

The CPHC will pull something like "Although the center is poorly defined and recon only finding 40kt winds, Dvorak from the JTWC is this and this so we will keep the pressure at 999mb and winds at 50kts".

[cycloneye]

F308 0105E DARBY HDOB 22 20160722
190330 1808N 15022W 8277 01692 0044 +181 +154 215025 025 030 004 00
190400 1806N 15020W 8275 01695 0050 +174 +156 218026 028 031 002 00
190430 1805N 15019W 8276 01697 0050 +175 +152 214030 031 030 001 00
190500 1804N 15018W 8277 01695 0052 +175 +149 211031 032 028 000 00
190530 1803N 15017W 8274 01699 0054 +174 +149 209033 033 025 000 00
190600 1802N 15015W 8277 01698 0057 +168 +151 207032 033 022 000 00
190630 1801N 15014W 8277 01698 0056 +170 +150 206033 033 021 000 00
190700 1800N 15013W 8278 01699 0059 +170 +149 203033 034 023 000 00
190730 1759N 15012W 8275 01700 0062 +167 +149 203034 034 023 000 00
190800 1758N 15010W 8276 01703 0065 +165 +149 201034 034 022 000 00
190830 1757N 15009W 8273 01705 0066 +165 +148 199035 035 022 000 00
190900 1756N 15008W 8275 01704 0064 +165 +145 199035 036 023 000 00
190930 1755N 15007W 8275 01705 0066 +168 +145 199034 035 023 000 00
191000 1754N 15006W 8274 01706 0067 +167 +145 200031 033 024 000 00
191030 1753N 15005W 8275 01705 0067 +166 +147 201030 032 023 000 00
191100 1752N 15003W 8275 01705 0068 +166 +147 201030 031 022 000 00
191130 1751N 15002W 8279 01703 0069 +165 +142 197033 035 024 000 03
191200 1750N 15001W 8275 01709 0072 +165 +141 196033 035 025 000 00
191230 1749N 15000W 8275 01709 0072 +167 +138 196033 033 026 000 00
191300 1748N 14959W 8275 01711 0074 +165 +137 195032 033 025 000 00
$$

[cycloneye]

Winds over 40kts at this set.

URPN15 KNHC 221922
AF308 0105E DARBY HDOB 23 20160722
191330 1747N 14957W 8275 01711 0076 +164 +140 196032 032 025 000 00
191400 1746N 14956W 8275 01712 0078 +164 +141 198032 032 025 000 03
191430 1745N 14955W 8276 01712 0083 +156 +144 199030 031 025 000 00
191500 1744N 14954W 8278 01712 0084 +153 +149 189030 031 024 000 05
191530 1743N 14952W 8261 01727 0082 +156 +147 188031 032 /// /// 03
191600 1745N 14951W 8279 01711 //// +141 //// 185033 033 027 001 01
191630 1746N 14951W 8274 01715 //// +150 //// 179033 035 027 000 01
191700 1748N 14951W 8278 01709 0080 +154 +150 178035 036 027 000 01
191730 1750N 14950W 8264 01727 //// +150 //// 182034 036 028 000 01
191800 1753N 14950W 8280 01710 0084 +154 +153 177036 037 029 000 01
191830 1755N 14949W 8272 01720 //// +152 //// 179037 037 028 000 05
191900 1757N 14948W 8278 01717 //// +145 //// 179037 038 029 000 01
191930 1759N 14948W 8266 01729 //// +147 //// 176038 039 031 000 01
192000 1802N 14947W 8277 01720 0093 +153 +153 173039 040 031 000 01
192030 1804N 14946W 8271 01727 //// +146 //// 175038 040 034 000 01
192100 1806N 14946W 8272 01725 //// +142 //// 173038 039 034 000 01
192130 1808N 14945W 8281 01716 //// +150 //// 171038 040 034 000 01
192200 1811N 14945W 8268 01732 //// +144 //// 172041 042 037 001 01
192230 1813N 14944W 8275 01725 0093 +157 +147 171043 043 034 000 00
192300 1815N 14943W 8274 01725 0092 +160 +143 167042 043 034 000 00
$$

[cycloneye]

Finnally winds over 40kts at last set.

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

Why did they decide to fly a relatively weak storm at 700 anyway? Normally a storm like this is flown at 850 or 925.

[cycloneye]

Whole set of +40kt winds.Some are contaminated.

URPN15 KNHC 221932
AF308 0105E DARBY HDOB 24 20160722
192330 1817N 14943W 8273 01726 0095 +155 +149 166043 044 035 000 00
192400 1820N 14942W 8274 01727 0095 +156 +154 169040 041 037 001 01
192430 1822N 14941W 8274 01726 0118 +147 +146 163041 041 037 007 00
192500 1824N 14941W 8274 01726 0122 +146 //// 164042 042 037 008 01
192530 1826N 14940W 8273 01726 //// +146 //// 164042 042 037 002 01
192600 1828N 14940W 8275 01722 0094 +155 +153 163042 042 035 000 01
192630 1831N 14939W 8275 01720 //// +149 //// 164043 043 037 000 01
192700 1833N 14938W 8276 01719 //// +132 //// 162045 046 036 004 01
192730 1835N 14938W 8274 01721 0108 +143 //// 161045 047 037 005 01
192800 1837N 14937W 8273 01720 0110 +151 +151 160043 044 039 007 00
192830 1840N 14936W 8278 01717 0117 +147 //// 156044 045 039 005 01
192900 1842N 14936W 8272 01721 //// +136 //// 157046 047 038 004 01
192930 1844N 14935W 8275 01717 //// +141 //// 155045 045 038 001 01
193000 1846N 14935W 8273 01721 //// +148 //// 159045 045 035 000 05
193030 1849N 14934W 8274 01721 //// +150 //// 155044 046 036 000 01
193100 1851N 14933W 8274 01721 //// +148 //// 154045 046 038 000 01
193130 1853N 14933W 8276 01720 //// +137 //// 153045 046 040 000 01
193200 1855N 14932W 8274 01722 //// +142 //// 151047 047 040 000 05
193230 1858N 14931W 8274 01721 //// +147 //// 148048 048 036 000 01
193300 1900N 14931W 8273 01722 0095 +141 //// 146047 047 038 000 01
$$

[cycloneye]