ATL: EIGHT - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/769512941829824512

[OuterBanker]

NHC not thinking much. No mention on POD. Two flights today into 99l though. Guess it's not much concern.

[northjaxpro]

Invest 91L is looking quite healthy this morning. As a matter of fact, this system is looking even better than last night. The ULL which had imparted a bit of southwest shear onit yesterday has moved off the southwest and weakened overnight. It may be quite possible this may already be a TD or even a minimal TS.

Also, the last few IR imagery frames show that 91L has resumed a slow drift to the west-west_northwest this morning.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

27/1145 UTC 31.0N 66.4W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

[GlennOBX]

Can someone explain the significance of the T number?

[tolakram]

Live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-66&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

[RL3AO]

Can someone explain the significance of the T number?

Dvorak Technique for estimating the intensity of a system solely from satellites on a scale of 1.0 to 8.0. A T2.5 is a tropical storm, T4.0 a hurricane, and T7.0 a Cat 5.

Once you start seeing 1.5 and 2.0 ratings, we're probably getting close to a tropical depression.

[ScottNAtlanta]

How wrong would it be if this ended up being Hermine...
(after everyone has been calling 99l Hermine to be)

[GlennOBX]

I'm at work, so I can't watch tv right now. I'm just wondering how local TV weather types in the Norfolk, VA area are playing this, and if heads are exploding there and at the Weather Channel right now....

[northjaxpro]

Just monitor closely all the news from NHC and on this forum all the latest from 91L. Provided the system stays intact, Model runs are showing a consensus of 91.of reaching either the North Carolina or Viriginia coast before heading out to sea during the next seven days at least.

[hurricanedude]

Jax.....you think it holds together....I see earlier you said you thought it was already a cyclone

[GlennOBX]

Jax, I worked in radio and tv news for 20 years starting in the 80s, and I'm a ham radio operator. I'm weather obsessive, but I'm not the hype or panic type. I stopped watching local news years ago, in part because of all the hyping being done by the local TV mets when there was absolutely no reason for it. I'm just wondering what the hype level is going to be at the Norfolk stations, and how soon they'll go wall to wall. (I'm exaggerating that last part, but only a little).

[northjaxpro]

Jax.....you think it holds together....I see earlier you said you thought it was already a cyclone

Well, at this moment, without the benefit of seeing ship reports or buoys close to the system, I think based on satellite presentation, it is a tropical cyclone, at least a TD.

Now, it appears that shear has definitely slackened since even last night for now. The only real potential significant detriment to 91L in the short to medium range would be dry air getting entrained into the system.

But for now, I think it is a a TD at least for this current time. I think if 91L is still.intact after the next 72 hours or so, all interests along the Mid Atlantic need to keep a watch on this system.

[northjaxpro]

Jax, I worked in radio and tv news for 20 years starting in the 80s, and I'm a ham radio operator. I'm weather obsessive, but I'm not the hype or panic type. I stopped watching local news years ago, in part because of all the hyping being done by the local TV mets when there was absolutely no reason for it. I'm just wondering what the hype level is going to be at the Norfolk stations, and how soon they'll go wall to wall. (I'm exaggerating that last part, but only a little).

Well, even though I think it is at least a TD right now, Recon has yet to fly out to the system to check it out. Right now, there is no need to hype up this situation like you say the media likely will do. Now, once Recon goes out and confirms a TD has formed and or finds a TS to designate this a named storm, then that would probably be when the media hype overdrive will likely start.

But for now, nothing to get in panic mode. Just prepare as we always do in situations like this. Monitor all the details from NHC and this Storm2K forum the next few days. The possibility is there that 91L has the potential to impact the Mid-Atlantic region next week if it stays intact. Just monitor it for now and be ready to take steps to prepare if the trends later in the week point to 91L ,potentially impacting your area.

[Siker]

UKMET develops this as it curves out to sea:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 34.8N 75.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.08.2016 72 35.2N 75.9W 1010 26
0000UTC 31.08.2016 84 35.6N 75.6W 1007 28
1200UTC 31.08.2016 96 36.1N 73.3W 1001 38
0000UTC 01.09.2016 108 37.3N 68.9W 994 47
1200UTC 01.09.2016 120 39.7N 62.8W 992 46
0000UTC 02.09.2016 132 42.5N 56.5W 993 41
1200UTC 02.09.2016 144 45.1N 50.4W 997 34

[wxman57]

Looks like a TD to me now, too. I don't think we need recon to determine that it has a well-defined LLC and convection not far from the center. NHC appears to be a bit behind the power curve on this one, so to speak. Good chance it will become at least a minimal TS over the next 24 hours and impact the Outer Banks as a sheared TS Tue/Wed then get destroyed by increasing shear ahead of a cold front. Perhaps some TS conditions for the Outer Banks.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like a TD to me now, too. I don't think we need recon to determine that it has a well-defined LLC and convection not far from the center. NHC appears to be a bit behind the power curve on this one, so to speak. Good chance it will become at least a minimal TS over the next 24 hours and impact the Outer Banks as a sheared TS Tue/Wed then get destroyed by increasing shear ahead of a cold front. Perhaps some TS conditions for the Outer Banks.

Yeah I agree wxman57. May be a TS nearing the coast of NC or VA. Trough will come in from the west and pick up whatever becomes of the system out to sea. Southwest shear will increase as well with the approach of the trough axis middle to late next week.

One other thing for the past 8-12 hours or so 91L seems to have picked up forward movement just a little bit more. to the west.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/769581597410689024

[cycloneye]

First mission on Sunday afternoon (If needed)

Code: Select all

SUSPECT AREA (WEST OF BERMUDA)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71           FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 28/1800Z                    A. 29/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
       C. 28/1430Z                    C. 29/0830Z
       D. 32.0N 71.0W                 D. 33.0N 74.0W
       E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2130Z        E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT