ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Who volunteers to post the HDOB data? Plane has departed.

URNT15 KNHC 282057
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 02 20160528
204730 3024N 08855W 0167 ///// 0165 +284 +200 000000 000 /// /// 23
204800 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0165 +275 +199 000000 000 /// /// 23
204830 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0164 +271 +198 000000 000 /// /// 23
204900 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0164 +267 +196 000000 000 /// /// 23
204930 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0162 +265 +194 000000 000 /// /// 23
205000 3025N 08855W 0169 ///// 0161 +268 +193 000000 000 /// /// 23
205030 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0164 +271 +191 000000 000 /// /// 23
205100 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0164 +272 +189 000000 000 /// /// 23
205130 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0163 +268 +189 000000 000 /// /// 23
205200 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0163 +265 +188 000000 000 /// /// 23
205230 3025N 08855W 0169 ///// 0163 +274 +186 000000 000 /// /// 23
205300 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0168 +273 +185 000000 000 /// /// 23
205330 3025N 08855W 0163 00002 0166 +259 +195 138003 005 /// /// 03
205400 3024N 08856W 0050 00098 0155 +245 +192 129005 006 /// /// 03
205430 3023N 08857W 9845 00269 0154 +227 +181 109004 006 /// /// 03
205500 3021N 08857W 9465 00613 0157 +208 +122 086003 004 /// /// 03
205530 3021N 08856W 9126 00928 0159 +189 +081 090004 004 /// /// 03
205600 3022N 08854W 8761 01273 0156 +162 +081 073005 006 /// /// 03
205630 3022N 08853W 8391 01643 0160 +136 +107 259002 004 /// /// 03
205700 3023N 08851W 8094 01950 0159 +122 +098 271006 006 /// /// 03
$$
;

[NDG]

Nitid look of TD Two from the ISS.

That is not a picture from from the ISS, that was from SpaceX's rocket on its way back to earth to land on the barge east of Cape Canaveral.

https://www.facebook.com/SpaceX/videos/ ... 010400131/

[SeGaBob]

In the last couple of frames it appears convection expanded south and west...could that make it here or not?

[cycloneye]

Ok NDG,thanks for the clarification

[NDG]

Ok NDG,thanks for the clarification

No problem.
That was one amazing landing with a shot of TD 2 on its way back to earth

[AJC3]

Nitid look of TD Two from the ISS.

That is not a picture from from the ISS, that was from SpaceX's rocket on its way back to earth to land on the barge east of Cape Canaveral.

https://www.facebook.com/SpaceX/videos/ ... 010400131/

The interesting thing is that the small swirl may have actually been the center of Bonnie.

At the time of the launch, Bonnie's center was about 360 miles due east of Cape Canaveral,
and the OCISLU (name of the drone barge) was pretty close to that location, even though
the sun was out at the time of landing.

[ozonepete]

Typical anticlimactic start to the season...like the first flurries for snow nuts up north...but it's trying. looks like a good dousing for portions of the low country.

Remember to wait until the music stops, psy. With this forecast to sit over the area for days somebody could get more than a "dousing". Floods are a much bigger killer than wind in TCs.

[AJC3]

URNT15 KNHC 282107
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 03 20160528
205730 3025N 08850W 7816 02240 0161 +107 +006 255004 005 /// /// 03
205800 3026N 08848W 7510 02573 0161 +082 +024 244004 004 /// /// 05
205830 3027N 08847W 7233 02884 //// +064 //// 240003 004 /// /// 05
205900 3028N 08845W 6965 03195 0153 +051 +013 154002 004 /// /// 03
205930 3029N 08844W 6710 03508 0157 +039 -018 138006 007 /// /// 03
210000 3030N 08842W 6495 03774 0164 +016 +007 151008 009 /// /// 03
210030 3031N 08840W 6294 04025 0169 -002 -009 151009 009 /// /// 03
210100 3032N 08839W 6110 04263 0172 -017 -034 172011 013 /// /// 03
210130 3033N 08837W 5956 04467 0169 -027 -090 185018 020 /// /// 03
210200 3034N 08835W 5812 04661 0169 -039 -092 192023 024 /// /// 03
210230 3035N 08834W 5668 04858 0172 -053 -107 191023 024 /// /// 03
210300 3037N 08832W 5515 05074 0176 -068 -099 192025 026 /// /// 03
210330 3038N 08830W 5383 05263 0239 -080 -122 197026 026 /// /// 03
210400 3039N 08828W 5254 05453 0247 -090 -105 207025 026 /// /// 03
210430 3040N 08827W 5132 05635 0255 -094 -158 212024 024 /// /// 03
210500 3041N 08825W 5016 05810 0262 -100 -150 210021 024 /// /// 03
210530 3043N 08823W 4883 06018 0272 -106 -141 202018 020 /// /// 03
210600 3044N 08821W 4776 06192 0283 -115 -149 201020 020 /// /// 03
210630 3044N 08819W 4681 06345 0289 -130 -153 196020 020 /// /// 03
210700 3045N 08816W 4589 06497 0297 -144 -153 193020 020 /// /// 03
$$

URNT15 KNHC 282117
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 04 20160528
210730 3045N 08814W 4504 06641 0304 -154 -160 201022 023 /// /// 03
210800 3046N 08812W 4433 06758 0308 -156 -185 207022 024 /// /// 03
210830 3046N 08810W 4356 06889 0314 -155 -244 205020 021 /// /// 03
210900 3047N 08807W 4284 07016 0322 -163 -274 213015 019 /// /// 03
210930 3048N 08805W 4209 07149 0327 -172 -292 205013 013 /// /// 03
211000 3048N 08803W 4134 07283 0334 -185 -302 197013 013 /// /// 03
211030 3049N 08800W 4059 07420 0340 -195 -321 207011 012 /// /// 03
211100 3049N 08758W 4005 07524 0350 -202 -351 206013 014 /// /// 03
211130 3050N 08756W 3956 07615 0353 -207 -334 207015 015 /// /// 03
211200 3050N 08753W 3902 07715 0357 -213 -323 203016 016 /// /// 03
211230 3051N 08751W 3847 07819 0362 -222 -337 205017 017 /// /// 03
211300 3052N 08748W 3794 07921 0366 -228 -333 199021 022 /// /// 03
211330 3052N 08746W 3755 07999 0371 -231 -334 206021 022 /// /// 03
211400 3053N 08743W 3751 08005 0371 -234 -349 201022 023 /// /// 03
211430 3053N 08741W 3753 08000 0370 -235 -367 197024 024 /// /// 03
211500 3054N 08738W 3753 08000 0370 -235 -375 196024 025 /// /// 03
211530 3055N 08735W 3754 07999 0370 -239 -352 194028 028 /// /// 03
211600 3055N 08732W 3751 08004 0370 -244 -306 192027 027 /// /// 03
211630 3056N 08729W 3751 08005 0372 -240 -316 189027 027 /// /// 03
211700 3057N 08726W 3753 08003 0372 -235 -342 194028 028 /// /// 03
$$

[tarheelprogrammer]

Typical anticlimactic start to the season...like the first flurries for snow nuts up north...but it's trying. looks like a good dousing for portions of the low country.

Remember to wait until the music stops, psy. With this forecast to sit over the area for days somebody could get more than a "dousing". Floods are a much bigger killer than wind in TCs.

Exactly and not to be an alarmist but does it seem like the center has stop moving much if at all? Seems to of jogged SW some. It could just be my inexperience tracking these storms and that is why I am asking a MET.

[NDG]

Gulf Stream doing its magic as Bonie tracks over it but most of its circulation is still exposed.

[ozonepete]

Typical anticlimactic start to the season...like the first flurries for snow nuts up north...but it's trying. looks like a good dousing for portions of the low country.

Remember to wait until the music stops, psy. With this forecast to sit over the area for days somebody could get more than a "dousing". Floods are a much bigger killer than wind in TCs.

Exactly and not to be an alarmist but does it seem like the center has stop moving much if at all? Seems to of jogged SW some. It could just be my inexperience tracking these storms and that is why I am asking a MET.

I don't see anything like that yet, though it should start slowing down a lot later this evening and overnight.

[psyclone]

Typical anticlimactic start to the season...like the first flurries for snow nuts up north...but it's trying. looks like a good dousing for portions of the low country.

Remember to wait until the music stops, psy. With this forecast to sit over the area for days somebody could get more than a "dousing". Floods are a much bigger killer than wind in TCs.

Just in case there's any ambiguity:

douse 1
also dowse (dous)
tr.v. doused, dous·ing, dous·es also dowsed or dows·ing or dows·es
1. To wet thoroughly; drench.

2. To put out (a light or fire); extinguish: doused the campfire with a bucket of water.

n.
A thorough drenching.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Remember to wait until the music stops, psy. With this forecast to sit over the area for days somebody could get more than a "dousing". Floods are a much bigger killer than wind in TCs.

Exactly and not to be an alarmist but does it seem like the center has stop moving much if at all? Seems to of jogged SW some. It could just be my inexperience tracking these storms and that is why I am asking a MET.

I don't see anything like that yet, though it should start slowing down a lot later this evening and overnight.

Okay thanks was making sure it was supposed to slow down as well. Good stuff and thanks as always Ozonepete.

[psyclone]

That ball of convection is fierce...looks decent for late May for sure.

[AJC3]

URNT15 KNHC 282127
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 05 20160528
211730 3058N 08723W 3751 08006 0374 -235 -343 192028 028 /// /// 03
211800 3058N 08720W 3751 08011 0376 -234 -334 189025 027 /// /// 03
211830 3059N 08717W 3751 08011 0378 -233 -336 185023 025 /// /// 03
211900 3100N 08714W 3754 08006 0376 -230 -331 184022 023 /// /// 03
211930 3101N 08711W 3753 08008 0376 -230 -333 185023 024 /// /// 03
212000 3101N 08708W 3752 08010 0377 -227 -332 185024 024 /// /// 03
212030 3102N 08705W 3753 08009 0377 -225 -338 181023 025 /// /// 03
212100 3103N 08702W 3753 08010 0377 -229 -324 184022 023 /// /// 03
212130 3103N 08659W 3753 08010 0378 -230 -326 185021 021 /// /// 03
212200 3104N 08655W 3753 08013 0379 -230 -325 188021 021 /// /// 03
212230 3105N 08652W 3753 08011 0380 -230 -312 189020 021 /// /// 03
212300 3106N 08649W 3753 08013 0380 -230 -314 190019 020 /// /// 03
212330 3106N 08646W 3753 08011 0381 -230 -310 191019 020 /// /// 03
212400 3107N 08643W 3751 08014 0380 -230 -300 192019 019 /// /// 03
212430 3108N 08640W 3752 08014 0381 -233 -298 194019 019 /// /// 03
212500 3109N 08637W 3753 08013 0381 -234 -296 193018 018 /// /// 03
212530 3109N 08634W 3753 08011 0381 -235 -277 195016 017 /// /// 03
212600 3110N 08631W 3753 08011 0381 -235 -275 200015 015 /// /// 03
212630 3111N 08628W 3752 08013 0381 -236 -255 207016 016 /// /// 03
212700 3111N 08625W 3752 08014 0381 -236 -253 193015 016 /// /// 05
$$

URNT15 KNHC 282137
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 06 20160528
212730 3112N 08621W 3753 08011 0380 -235 -256 175015 015 /// /// 05
212800 3113N 08618W 3752 08013 0380 -235 -248 182015 016 /// /// 03
212830 3113N 08615W 3753 08010 0379 -235 -245 205010 014 /// /// 03
212900 3114N 08612W 3753 08010 0379 -237 -243 211008 009 /// /// 05
212930 3115N 08609W 3752 08011 0379 -239 -248 217007 008 /// /// 03
213000 3116N 08606W 3754 08010 0379 -240 //// 213009 010 /// /// 05
213030 3116N 08603W 3753 08013 0380 -238 -247 213012 013 /// /// 03
213100 3117N 08600W 3753 08012 0381 -235 -251 209011 013 /// /// 03
213130 3118N 08557W 3751 08014 0380 -237 -255 203011 012 /// /// 03
213200 3118N 08554W 3755 08008 0381 -237 -248 197009 011 /// /// 03
213230 3119N 08551W 3750 08018 0381 -235 -257 189010 010 /// /// 03
213300 3120N 08548W 3753 08013 0380 -236 -254 195011 012 /// /// 03
213330 3120N 08545W 3753 08012 0381 -235 -261 201010 012 /// /// 03
213400 3121N 08542W 3754 08012 0382 -235 -258 193008 010 /// /// 03
213430 3122N 08538W 3751 08016 0381 -236 -253 203009 010 /// /// 03
213500 3122N 08535W 3753 08013 0381 -240 -248 214007 009 /// /// 03
213530 3123N 08532W 3751 08015 0382 -240 -261 228007 007 /// /// 03
213600 3124N 08529W 3753 08013 0382 -238 -260 219006 006 /// /// 03
213630 3124N 08526W 3755 08010 0382 -235 -296 212004 005 /// /// 03
213700 3125N 08523W 3753 08014 0381 -235 -295 241004 005 /// /// 03
$$

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty much stalling out right now. just a slow drift over the last couple hours. wont matter much for strengthening unless the shear drops some.

[AJC3]

URNT15 KNHC 282147
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 07 20160528
213730 3126N 08520W 3751 08014 0381 -234 -288 257004 005 /// /// 03
213800 3127N 08517W 3753 08012 0381 -234 -302 243003 004 /// /// 03
213830 3127N 08514W 3754 08012 0381 -236 -345 184003 004 /// /// 03
213900 3128N 08511W 3751 08015 0380 -239 -354 187002 004 /// /// 03
213930 3129N 08508W 3753 08009 0379 -239 -348 188003 005 /// /// 03
214000 3129N 08505W 3756 08004 0379 -238 -372 219002 003 /// /// 03
214030 3130N 08502W 3753 08012 0379 -240 -374 228003 004 /// /// 03
214100 3131N 08459W 3751 08014 0379 -240 -383 229004 005 /// /// 03
214130 3131N 08456W 3754 08007 0378 -240 -400 226005 006 /// /// 03
214200 3132N 08453W 3753 08012 0378 -242 -415 222006 007 /// /// 03
214230 3132N 08449W 3751 08010 0379 -241 -426 223007 008 /// /// 03
214300 3133N 08446W 3753 08009 0378 -244 -434 218006 007 /// /// 03
214330 3134N 08443W 3753 08010 0378 -244 -436 212007 007 /// /// 03
214400 3134N 08440W 3751 08012 0378 -245 -428 227008 008 /// /// 03
214430 3135N 08437W 3754 08006 0377 -245 -415 228006 008 /// /// 03
214500 3136N 08434W 3753 08008 0377 -245 -381 223004 005 /// /// 03
214530 3136N 08431W 3751 08011 0377 -245 -371 234005 005 /// /// 03
214600 3137N 08428W 3754 08007 0376 -254 -380 169007 007 /// /// 03
214630 3138N 08425W 3750 08012 0376 -248 -350 184005 007 /// /// 03
214700 3138N 08422W 3755 08003 0376 -244 -407 136004 005 /// /// 03
$$

URNT15 KNHC 282157
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 08 20160528
214730 3139N 08419W 3752 08008 0375 -244 -434 121005 006 /// /// 03
214800 3140N 08416W 3751 08008 0374 -240 -418 127003 005 /// /// 03
214830 3140N 08413W 3754 08003 0374 -244 -411 139006 008 /// /// 03
214900 3141N 08410W 3751 08011 0374 -249 -397 135009 009 /// /// 03
214930 3141N 08407W 3753 08006 0374 -250 -377 134008 009 /// /// 03
215000 3142N 08404W 3755 08002 0374 -252 -356 122009 009 /// /// 03
215030 3142N 08401W 3753 08006 0374 -255 -333 122009 009 /// /// 03
215100 3143N 08358W 3751 08009 0373 -255 -312 118008 009 /// /// 03
215130 3143N 08355W 3751 08007 0373 -255 -302 135008 008 /// /// 03
215200 3144N 08352W 3753 08005 0374 -255 -281 144008 008 /// /// 03
215230 3144N 08349W 3752 08007 0374 -255 -304 151007 008 /// /// 03
215300 3145N 08346W 3753 08006 0375 -255 -304 148007 008 /// /// 03
215330 3145N 08342W 3752 08007 0374 -255 -273 140008 009 /// /// 03
215400 3146N 08339W 3754 08005 0374 -255 -280 147008 009 /// /// 03
215430 3146N 08336W 3755 08003 0374 -254 -279 129009 010 /// /// 03
215500 3147N 08333W 3754 08007 0375 -252 -283 117008 009 /// /// 03
215530 3147N 08330W 3753 08005 0374 -250 -282 117007 008 /// /// 03
215600 3148N 08327W 3754 08005 0375 -254 -258 111006 007 /// /// 03
215630 3148N 08324W 3751 08009 0375 -255 -260 123005 006 /// /// 03
215700 3149N 08321W 3755 08003 0375 -255 //// 135004 005 /// /// 05
$$

[SeGaBob]

In the last couple of frames it appears convection expanded south and west...could that make it here or not?

Could someone answer this? Much appreciated.

[ozonepete]

Typical anticlimactic start to the season...like the first flurries for snow nuts up north...but it's trying. looks like a good dousing for portions of the low country.

Remember to wait until the music stops, psy. With this forecast to sit over the area for days somebody could get more than a "dousing". Floods are a much bigger killer than wind in TCs.

Just in case there's any ambiguity:

douse 1
also dowse (dous)
tr.v. doused, dous·ing, dous·es also dowsed or dows·ing or dows·es
1. To wet thoroughly; drench.

2. To put out (a light or fire); extinguish: doused the campfire with a bucket of water.

n.
A thorough drenching.

?? So the quoted definition of a dousing or dowsing doesn't imply flooding per se and it's not an NWS term. I'm worried that people in the low country aren't thinking of severe flooding. They need to be on their guard just in case. These slowly dying systems have caused some of the worst flooding in U.S. history. That's all.

[ozonepete]

In the last couple of frames it appears convection expanded south and west...could that make it here or not?

Could someone answer this? Much appreciated.

Hey there Bob. I saw the question but was a little hesitant to answer because it's a tough call. But after looking into it a little bit it looks to me like you don't get much at all. It appears that the southwestern edge of the heavy precip is holding and the steering winds at cloud level are not going to change enough to shift it closer to you.