ATL: HERMINE - Models
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
SeGaBob wrote:FWIW the 0Z Euro is running.
Do I even dare check it...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Can you tell if it moves through here between then and SC? 24 hour time jump on tropicaltidbits makes it hard to tell.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
SeGaBob wrote:Can you tell if it moves through here between then and SC? 24 hour time jump on tropicaltidbits makes it hard to tell.
It reemerges at about Hilton Head Island at 21Z on Friday with a 993mb pressure. Cuts right through southeast Georgia
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Alyono wrote:EC at 977mb just east of Apalachicola around 6Z Friday
Toss it?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Alyono wrote:SeGaBob wrote:Can you tell if it moves through here between then and SC? 24 hour time jump on tropicaltidbits makes it hard to tell.
It reemerges at about Hilton Head Island at 21Z on Friday with a 993mb pressure. Cuts right through southeast Georgia
Thanks.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Hammy wrote:Alyono wrote:EC at 977mb just east of Apalachicola around 6Z Friday
Toss it?
if this can ever get aligned, I can see that happening. If it gets aligned immediately, even the 4km NAM, while UNLIKELY, would not be impossible. I just am not sure when this gets aligned
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Over night models shifted west as did the official NHC track probably due to the delay.
08 and the ULL over the Carolinas have more time to move out to the northeast.
Texas ULL still there providing light shear, no sign of either a trough or ridging north of the system yet though.
08 and the ULL over the Carolinas have more time to move out to the northeast.
Texas ULL still there providing light shear, no sign of either a trough or ridging north of the system yet though.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Remember to keep discussion in here about model runs, not thoughts or other posts that belong in the discussion thread. Off topic posts are deleted.
Recent model runs.
Recent model runs.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
tolakram wrote:Remember to keep discussion in here about model runs, not thoughts or other posts that belong in the discussion thread. Off topic posts are deleted.
Recent model runs.
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/cqMsjPA.gif[/img]
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/y8Axtcw.gif[/img]
[im g]http://i.imgur.com/BuhuiVQ.gif[/img]
A very interesting pattern setup for the GFS on the 06z run this morning. Way out in the long range it takes TD9 for a loop back around and visits the Carolinas and mid Atlantic all over again.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:tolakram wrote:Remember to keep discussion in here about model runs, not thoughts or other posts that belong in the discussion thread. Off topic posts are deleted.
Recent model runs.
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/cqMsjPA.gif[/img]
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/y8Axtcw.gif[/img]
[im g]http://i.imgur.com/BuhuiVQ.gif[/img]
A very interesting pattern setup for the GFS on the 06z run this morning. Way out in the long range it takes TD9 for a loop back around and visits the Carolinas and mid Atlantic all over again.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
tolakram wrote:Remember to keep discussion in here about model runs, not thoughts or other posts that belong in the discussion thread. Off topic posts are deleted.
Recent model runs.
Sorry for another 101 level question, but can someone explain the meaning of the circles around the depiction of the storm with numbers like 145 and 150 being shown? Also, is there a way to accurately (or not) translate predicted pressure into what the wind speed might be based on that pressure? TIA.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
The 4km NAM has been extremely consistent with rapid organization today and tomorrow. It strengthens it into a 938mb hurricane and has been consistent with this idea. While it's likely wrong it has done well with the track and slow movement of TD 9. RI is not usually forecasted much in advance and can often catch forecasters and the public by surprise. Worth mentioning imo.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_32.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_32.png
Last edited by tolakram on Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed direct image link
Reason: removed direct image link
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
GlennOBX wrote:tolakram wrote:Remember to keep discussion in here about model runs, not thoughts or other posts that belong in the discussion thread. Off topic posts are deleted.
Recent model runs.
Sorry for another 101 level question, but can someone explain the meaning of the circles around the depiction of the storm with numbers like 145 and 150 being shown? Also, is there a way to accurately (or not) translate predicted pressure into what the wind speed might be based on that pressure? TIA.
The first two (plotting the yellow vorticty) are from 850 mb or about 5000 feet above the ground. The labels are the heights above the ground in decameters at that spot. They work similarly to pressure isobars on a surface map. 150 means 850 mb is 1500 meters above the ground there.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
As of hours 36-42 on the 12Z GFS, this is modeled the strongest yet for a GFS run. It is about 100 miles SW of its 6Z GFS position.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: NINE - Models
GFS seems to be falling in with other guidance on a strong TS - minimal Cat 1 at landfall.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
The rainfall, which a couple of days ago was modeled on the GFS to be heaviest SE of the track over the N FL peninsula, is now modeled NW of a much more NW track. Is this due to more baroclinic influences than when it was modeled to track over the N FL peninsula?
The 12Z GFS has the Raleigh area getting close to 5"! Wow!
The 12Z GFS has the Raleigh area getting close to 5"! Wow!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: NINE - Models
12z GFS; west shift, stronger, about 6 hours later. Looks to be about Apalachicola
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