ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Dean4Storms]

GEFS and GEPS ensembles both shifted north and west big time on the GEPS. What is going on?

[tolakram]

Euro 12Z consistency.

[tolakram]

[KWT]

ECM down to 999mbs and it is interesting that the track is indeed a touch more west to start with.

Looks like we broadly have an agreement here now with track and strength.

[toad strangler]

Verbatim the 12z GFS and Euro in near lockstep with each other IRT landfall

[N2FSU]

12z Euro 10mb lower at landfall than 00z and further north.

[RL3AO]

I haven't been able to look too closely at the models recently. That's an interesting trough that develops northeast of 09L towards the cut-off low that tries to develop a surface low near the GA coast.

Seems like the system would struggle to focus convection and vorticity with a large trough like that.

[tolakram]

Animated 12Z Euro run

[xcool22]

I see more west on 12z ec

[tolakram]

I see more west on 12z ec

Nearly the same as the 0Z Euro.

12Z low pressure is elongated but position is very nearly the same.

[Steve]

Didn't see it mentioned, but 12z CMC (Canadian) does push it back down into the Gulf from a ridge building in from the North. It doesn't get as far north as Ivan did when it completed a similar progression (only forecast by the UKMet back then) and only gets to just south of Outer Banks before retracing its steps down the coast and back into the Gulf. That seems pretty silly as CMC also has a companion storm forming in tandem over the east side of Florida (inland over about Baker/Duval/Nassau Counties) that it takes up and out. I think it's seeing that upper low and making adjustments because it's got 9 due south of Mobile Bay (before hooking East and hitting around Panama City Beach.

The crazy uncle often makes me want to belt out a verse of Oh Canada.

[tolakram]

Haven't posted the ukie in a while. Still showing a decent tropical storm.

[Siker]

In case anyone wants the saga of TD-9 aka 99L to never end...

One Euro ensemble member keeps this as a weak storm which barely makes landfall in the Big Bend, gets shunted back southwest by a building ridge, meanders in the southwestern Gulf while strengthening, and eventually makes landfall in Louisiana as a powerful hurricane in two weeks.

[Blinhart]

In case anyone never wants the saga of TD-9 aka 99L to never end...

One Euro ensemble member keeps this as a weak storm which barely makes landfall in the Big Bend, gets shunted back southwest by a building ridge, meanders in the southwestern Gulf while strengthening, and eventually makes landfall in Louisiana as a powerful hurricane in two weeks.

What is sad, I can actually believe that, wouldn't be the first time a system made one or more loops along the Gulf Coast. Anyone remember Juan in 1985?

[Dean4Storms]

A good number of the ECM EPS have trended further north and west in the last 12z suite.

[Steve]

A good number of the ECM EPS have trended further north and west in the last 12z suite.

Yeah a lot of modeling was up closer to you all in the 12z suite for sure.

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 18z, 84H

[ronjon]

18z HWRF 968 mb 110 mph max wind...landfall just north of cedar key..strengthening at landfall...5am Thursday

[sponger]

Almost looks like the GFS ends this up off off NJ and shunting back towards the coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[sponger]

18z HWRF 971 mb 121 mph max wind...landfall just north of cedar key..strengthening at landfall...5am Thursday

That would be ugly and a huge surprise to many.