ATL: HERMINE - Models

[BobHarlem]

The euro is just not doing well, it's been extremely inconsistent this go around, never seen it do this poorly on a tropical wave.

[LarryWx]

The King is actually being consistent, consistent with its run from 48 hours ago (Fri 12Z run).

[p1nheadlarry]

HWRF is much more useful when you have a closed low to initialize compared to the global models

[HurriGuy]

100% agree with the ECMWF that is having an extremely hard time for 99L

Not useful after 24-48 hours

[OntarioEggplant]

What did the 12z UKMET say

[Alyono]

What did the 12z UKMET say

moderate TS into Big Bend, with rapid intensification east of Florida

[BobHarlem]

Did the euro actually di a big loop of 99L in the Atlantic with another landfall in Georgia? This continues to be just plain odd.

[txwatcher91]

Did the euro actually di a big loop of 99L in the Atlantic with another landfall in Georgia? This continues to be just plain odd.

It appears like that just based on the 24 hour panels I can see. The GFS stalls it as does the CMC only in different places. It seems like 99L could miss the weakness and instead of getting pulled out to sea have high pressure build in again causing either a stall or loop.

[bamajammer4eva]

Tallahassee NWS model discussion

At first, it seemed like today's 12z guidance was coming into
pretty good agreement with the area of disturbed weather in the
southeast Gulf. Tracks on the 12z GFS, Canadian, and UKMET were
somewhere in between Destin and Cedar Key. Intensities still
varied quite a bit, but each of those three models showed a well
defined system. Then the 12z ECMWF came in and flipped-flopped
tremendously again, now barely showing any system at all. The
ECMWF's performance with this system has been very inconsistent,
which is atypical of this model. Its performance was also poor for
the last heavy rainfall event locally. Perhaps its upgrade to 9
km resolution is causing problems with the convective
parameterization in the model, although that's just a speculation.
At any rate, the official forecast trended towards a wetter
scenario with the potential for the area of disturbed weather to
affect our forecast area by the middle to end of the week,
particularly across the southeast big bend. We continue to want
people to follow this system closely this week as the forecast
continues to be refined.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM near Tampa:

[rockyman]

The 4km NAM takes the system much farther into the middle of the Gulf:

[Macrocane]

People have been saying that models won't work without a real LLC, now that we have it, let's see if that was really the problem...
00z runs will be interesting.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Man is a poor model...wait for others

[SeGaBob]

Will the 18Z GFS have the new center data?

[ronjon]

Will the 18Z GFS have the new center data?

Don't think so Bob...thats a 2 pm initialization. 00z will no doubt.

[ronjon]

18z NAM very similar to HWRF RUNS without the hurricane intensity.

[Recurve]

HWRF is much more useful when you have a closed low to initialize compared to the global models

so now here we go -- models have something to go on. The HWRF has been shocking for Tampa Bay, but now the first NHC forecast has a somewhat better picture on intensity and westward motion.

[SunnyThoughts]

18Z GFS initialized http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

[rockyman]

18z GFS is SW of 12z, through 12 hours...paralleling the coast of Cuba.

[Blinhart]

I just wish we would have information of the Upper Levels of the Gulf to feed into the models