ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SouthernBreeze]

in that image TVCN treks over less mountainous area of Cuba

[OuterBanker]

Yes, Floyd was a real trip. Evacuation from FL to NC. At the time the largest Evacuation ever. But, it approached from the east and made a hard right to NC. Not from the south like Matthew.

[Aric Dunn]

if you run the loop. it actually does a look just like jeanne did.. craziness.. and nearly the exact same spot

While remember Jeanne very well here in Otlando, I don't remember what the synoptic pattern was then. What caused Jeanne to plow westward into cent all Flotida from the loop she travelled? In this scenario with a Matthew stall in subsequent loop what would cause it to not drift northward as it awaits another trough to yank it OTS from that position? In other words could it do a Jeanne coming into Florida in that set up or would it just sit there tearing up the Bahamas before shooting ots?

it was a large trough that flattened and a huge blocking ridge built in.. here is the old nhc forecast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/JE ... hics.shtml

[SFLcane]

in that image TVCN treks over less mountainous area of Cuba

Means NHC now needs to shift left there now on the right of consensus

[wxman57]

Of the 40 GFS & Canadian ensemble members, none indicates stalling near the Bahamas, and only a few indicate any Florida or Carolinas impact. Most keep it offshore and out to sea, maybe not by a great distance, but generally hurricane-force winds stay offshore. My flight is scheduled to arrive in Orlando Monday afternoon, October 10th. I hope I won't see Matthew out the window as we reach Orlando...

[jlauderdal]

Floyd was the ultimate eye watching storm. Every jog was scrutinized as it approached Florida. It was quite amusing on these boards back then. Good times.

palm beach post was the board of choice back then

[centuryv58]

Of the 40 GFS & Canadian ensemble members, none indicates stalling near the Bahamas, and only a few indicate any Florida or Carolinas impact. Most keep it offshore and out to sea, maybe not by a great distance, but generally hurricane-force winds stay offshore. My flight is scheduled to arrive in Orlando Monday afternoon, October 10th. I hope I won't see Matthew out the window as we reach Orlando...

He wouldn't dare tangle with you (or your avatar).

[SouthFLTropics]

Floyd was the ultimate eye watching storm. Every jog was scrutinized as it approached Florida. It was quite amusing on these boards back then. Good times.

I don't even think S2k was around in 1999 when Floyd came in. That would've been back on the old GoPBI pages.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I don't recall seeing this area of low pressure northeast of Matthew on the 00z ECMWF. As if the forecast wasn't complicated enough...

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET:

[chris_fit]

Of the 40 GFS & Canadian ensemble members, none indicates stalling near the Bahamas, and only a few indicate any Florida or Carolinas impact. Most keep it offshore and out to sea, maybe not by a great distance, but generally hurricane-force winds stay offshore. My flight is scheduled to arrive in Orlando Monday afternoon, October 10th. I hope I won't see Matthew out the window as we reach Orlando...

No Worries WXMAN57 - Matthew will still be near Jamaica on Monday. Check back in a few days

[cycloneye]

Floyd was the ultimate eye watching storm. Every jog was scrutinized as it approached Florida. It was quite amusing on these boards back then. Good times.

I don't even think S2k was around in 1999 when Floyd came in. That would've been back on the old GoPBI pages.

S2K was born in October,2002.Many members came from the old GoPBI.

[SouthFLTropics]

Floyd was the ultimate eye watching storm. Every jog was scrutinized as it approached Florida. It was quite amusing on these boards back then. Good times.

I don't even think S2k was around in 1999 when Floyd came in. That would've been back on the old GoPBI pages.

S2K was born in October,2002.Many members came from the old GoPBI.

Yep...I was one of the old GoPBI members that came onboard.

[drezee]

Of the 40 GFS & Canadian ensemble members, none indicates stalling near the Bahamas, and only a few indicate any Florida or Carolinas impact. Most keep it offshore and out to sea, maybe not by a great distance, but generally hurricane-force winds stay offshore. My flight is scheduled to arrive in Orlando Monday afternoon, October 10th. I hope I won't see Matthew out the window as we reach Orlando...

You know you jinxed it...maybe you will see Canmore. :

[gatorcane]

If the Euro is correct, we will be tracking this storm for maybe like 2 more weeks...

[Aric Dunn]

12Z UKMET:

[img]https://s16.postimg.org/yxtevbk1h/ukm2_2016100712_168_lant_troplant_prp_fcst_gentr.png[/im]

interesting the north turn is later and the NNE motion is quite bit farther west than last run.. looks like things are changing.

[stormreader]

Wow! Just saw the 12z European. Pretty much stalls in the Bahamas. With a 924mb center it would pretty much destroy the Bahamas. Wouldn't wish that on anyone.

Stalls may actually mean a W drift. And if I'm right, Mathew might already be closer to Fl than the Bahamas at that point. That's because I'm not sold on the true N move out of the Carribean. I favor a NNW taking it across Cuba toward Key West. Then you would get a slow down over there. But slow down might mean a W drift.

[KWT]

Would be hard for Matthew to miss from that 144hrs UKMO chart.

ECM seems crazy, hard to imagine it just lingering like that but it would be one for the record books if that were to happen for sure!

[marionstorm]

Nothing like a good forum insurrection. I remember 2002 on storm2k good times. Nexrad, streetsoldier, that Methane Mike crank, etc. what a bunch of nuts.

[Dean4Storms]

Leave it to the ECM to throw a wrench into the works!