ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories

#341 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:37 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
800 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016

...NICOLE STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON THE WAY TO INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 66.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Nicole was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 66.4 West. Nicole is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). An increase
in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a northeastward
turn and an additional increase in forward speed on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the core of Hurricane Nicole will pass near or over
Bermuda on Thursday.

Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Nicole is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional strengthening is possible tonight or early Thursday,
and Nicole is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength
when it approaches Bermuda. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently on the way to investigate Nicole to provide
more information on its intensity.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda
Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda tonight and
early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#342 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:39 pm

...NICOLE STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON THE WAY TO INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 66.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#343 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:41 pm

This could have similar impacts to Fabian based on current trends
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#344 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:43 pm

Premature to upgrade IMO with Recon on the way...they could have waited for it and then issued a Tropical Cyclone Update...
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#345 Postby Ken711 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:
...NICOLE STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON THE WAY TO INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 66.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


Hope it slides past Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#346 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:48 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 OCT 2016 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 29:24:33 N Lon : 66:27:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 950.4mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 33 km

Center Temp : +17.1C Cloud Region Temp : -66.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 117km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.5 degrees

Could become a Cat 4?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#347 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:48 pm

First time having at least 3 major hurricanes in one season since 2011! Unfortunately, Bermuda is going to likely take a beating from Nicole. :(
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#348 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:52 pm

Wow. Nicole is just so beautiful.


Also it feels kinda new that the "peak" of the season in this basin when all the intense ones are forming has shifted to October.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#349 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:56 pm

dexterlabio wrote:Wow. Nicole is just so beautiful.


Also it feels kinda new that the "peak" of the season in this basin when all the intense ones are forming has shifted to October.


Since 2011, there have 13 major hurricanes. 7 of them either formed or extended into October (Ophelia, Rina, Sandy, Gonzalo, Joaquin, Matthew, Nicole). Likewise, only three - Irene, Danny and Gaston - were majors in August or earlier.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#350 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:04 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 122355
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 19 20161012
234330 2838N 06837W 4953 05921 0278 -059 -121 306027 027 034 000 00
234400 2838N 06834W 5013 05823 0271 -055 -109 303028 028 033 000 00
234430 2837N 06830W 5107 05681 0264 -048 -095 299029 030 034 000 00
234500 2837N 06827W 5208 05525 0253 -036 -087 298031 031 034 000 00
234530 2836N 06823W 5302 05380 0242 -027 -085 292031 032 033 000 00
234600 2836N 06820W 5395 05235 0227 -021 -076 291034 036 034 000 00
234630 2836N 06820W 5395 05235 0218 -011 -062 298036 037 035 000 00
234700 2835N 06812W 5597 04937 0019 +003 -064 298035 036 035 000 00
234730 2835N 06809W 5701 04790 0022 +010 -046 299035 035 037 000 00
234800 2835N 06805W 5807 04639 0022 +019 -040 298035 036 037 000 00
234830 2834N 06802W 5932 04468 0028 +025 -028 297036 036 038 001 03
234900 2834N 06758W 6077 04271 0026 +039 -022 298036 037 036 000 00
234930 2833N 06755W 6220 04080 0025 +049 -013 301038 039 036 000 00
235000 2833N 06751W 6362 03891 0025 +059 -003 305038 039 038 000 00
235030 2833N 06748W 6519 03693 0035 +066 +024 309040 041 039 000 03
235100 2832N 06745W 6809 03340 0040 +085 +050 307041 042 /// /// 03
235130 2833N 06742W 6967 03134 0025 +096 +062 307041 043 /// /// 03
235200 2834N 06740W 6975 03116 0018 +099 +044 309044 045 032 000 03
235230 2835N 06738W 6956 03137 0009 +102 +039 312044 045 034 000 00
235300 2837N 06737W 6974 03112 0008 +100 +041 318045 046 036 000 00
$$
;

Operational altitude.
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Re: NICOLE: Local observations , Web Cams , Local statements: Bermuda

#351 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:04 pm

I have a couple friends there on internships, they are reporting as much as possible but bunkered in the weather department.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#352 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:08 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 130005
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 20 20161012
235330 2839N 06735W 6963 03121 0010 +093 +042 318047 048 037 000 00
235400 2840N 06733W 6964 03117 0007 +094 +038 313047 048 038 000 00
235430 2842N 06731W 6967 03110 9995 +100 +033 316048 048 039 000 00
235500 2844N 06729W 6970 03101 9986 +104 +031 314048 049 040 000 00
235530 2845N 06727W 6967 03101 9981 +105 +036 317047 048 040 000 00
235600 2847N 06725W 6966 03098 9982 +099 +056 321046 047 042 000 00
235630 2849N 06723W 6965 03096 9978 +100 +052 322048 048 045 000 00
235700 2850N 06721W 6973 03083 9964 +108 +047 324049 050 045 002 00
235730 2852N 06719W 6966 03087 9963 +105 +045 326052 052 045 001 00
235800 2854N 06718W 6966 03081 9962 +098 +071 322048 051 045 001 00
235830 2855N 06716W 6978 03067 9955 +107 +058 319050 052 044 001 00
235900 2857N 06714W 6975 03071 9956 +104 +069 315052 054 041 005 00
235930 2858N 06713W 6966 03076 9948 +104 +075 314052 055 041 005 00
000000 2859N 06711W 6966 03071 9960 +086 +084 311048 050 044 003 01
000030 2901N 06710W 6965 03070 9954 +088 +085 307049 050 045 003 01
000100 2902N 06708W 6965 03065 9949 +092 +086 306053 055 044 001 00
000130 2903N 06707W 6961 03066 9940 +095 +088 305060 061 047 001 00
000200 2904N 06705W 6966 03056 9936 +095 +085 302061 062 049 000 00
000230 2906N 06704W 6964 03053 9931 +095 +091 299061 063 051 001 01
000300 2907N 06702W 6970 03039 9922 +096 +083 295065 066 053 001 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#353 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:14 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 130012
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 21 20161013
000330 2908N 06701W 6967 03039 9917 +097 +076 295066 067 052 002 00
000400 2910N 06659W 6967 03036 9912 +096 +089 297058 066 052 004 00
000430 2911N 06658W 6974 03025 9904 +099 +086 301056 058 056 003 00
000500 2912N 06656W 6966 03027 9882 +113 +078 305059 062 056 003 00
000530 2914N 06655W 6969 03014 9862 +123 +063 306063 064 057 001 00
000600 2915N 06653W 6969 03005 9854 +120 +069 307063 063 058 002 00
000630 2916N 06652W 6961 03007 9840 +126 +060 311067 068 058 001 00
000700 2917N 06650W 6962 02993 9828 +127 +059 311070 072 059 002 00
000730 2919N 06649W 6970 02975 9817 +126 +062 309072 073 062 001 00
000800 2920N 06648W 6972 02965 9805 +129 +064 310073 074 063 000 03
000830 2921N 06646W 6963 02959 9783 +133 +054 309077 078 067 003 00
000900 2922N 06645W 6965 02940 9756 +140 +079 311077 079 068 003 00
000930 2924N 06643W 6974 02914 9751 +124 +107 308078 081 071 004 00
001000 2925N 06642W 6970 02899 9726 +131 +105 312083 085 074 003 00
001030 2926N 06641W 6972 02876 9702 +132 +105 316085 086 073 001 00
001100 2927N 06639W 6960 02869 9677 +132 +104 311084 087 071 004 00
001130 2928N 06638W 6972 02834 9656 +129 +113 310084 089 076 007 00
001200 2930N 06636W 6970 02807 9613 +146 +106 308083 089 081 003 00
001230 2931N 06635W 6951 02817 9582 +156 +104 312058 085 079 004 00
001300 2932N 06634W 6970 02772 9562 +156 +105 308038 048 060 002 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#354 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:17 pm

dexterlabio wrote:Wow. Nicole is just so beautiful.


Also it feels kinda new that the "peak" of the season in this basin when all the intense ones are forming has shifted to October.

One of our local Mets mentioned several days ago that there appears to have been a recent shift of the peak from September to October. I've also seen discussion about this shift in one of the threads in the Talkin' Tropics forum.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#355 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:17 pm

looks like the pressure is lower than the advisory states
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#356 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:19 pm

Hurricane Nicole is now the third major hurricane. That hurricane carried on despite Matthew.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#357 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:21 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:Hurricane Nicole is now the third major hurricane. That hurricane carried on despite Matthew.


That's why even sheared systems cant be discounted further down the road, Nicole is an example of that as 2 days ago it looked like it was dying now its a major
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#358 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:24 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 130022
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 22 20161013
001330 2934N 06632W 6968 02763 9544 +165 +096 295029 036 038 002 00
001400 2935N 06632W 6969 02756 9534 +169 +092 289022 027 028 000 00
001430 2937N 06631W 6963 02758 9527 +172 +073 255011 018 025 000 03
001500 2939N 06632W 6963 02756 9523 +176 +067 211001 008 026 000 00
001530 2941N 06632W 6974 02749 9529 +172 +083 053009 012 030 001 00
001600 2942N 06633W 6966 02762 9536 +170 +082 040022 026 032 000 03
001630 2944N 06633W 6955 02778 9541 +169 +067 046025 026 032 000 03
001700 2945N 06632W 6976 02756 9544 +171 +058 052022 024 033 000 00
001730 2946N 06631W 6969 02764 9541 +172 +059 062021 022 032 001 03
001800 2947N 06629W 6963 02769 9542 +167 +074 067020 021 035 001 00
001830 2948N 06628W 6969 02761 9538 +172 +078 077023 025 037 000 00
001900 2949N 06626W 6963 02767 9534 +175 +076 092029 034 043 001 00
001930 2950N 06625W 6971 02761 9545 +167 +085 102040 041 063 003 00
002000 2951N 06624W 6970 02768 9559 +156 +099 106053 058 084 005 00
002030 2952N 06622W 6967 02780 9593 +131 +107 110065 069 093 008 00
002100 2953N 06621W 6971 02788 9618 +119 +116 116075 077 098 012 00
002130 2954N 06620W 6973 02800 9629 +123 +119 124081 087 099 014 00
002200 2955N 06619W 6951 02848 9684 +116 +116 123099 103 095 024 00
002230 2956N 06617W 6980 02824 9715 +107 +107 115096 102 092 031 00
002300 2957N 06616W 6960 02865 9741 +098 +098 117093 094 090 031 00
$$
;

Score one for Dvorak - 103 kt FL, 99 kt SFMR. Pressure 952mb.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussio

#359 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:25 pm

Pretty unlucky for Bermuda...so tiny in the middle of the Atlantic and somehow this major hurricane finds a way to make a direct hit.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#360 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:25 pm

HH's confirm Nicole is a major hurricane, lowest MSLP is 952.3mb, SFMR 99 knots.
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