ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bp92]

I was talking about the little Peninsula Strip where they experienced the worst weather, not the whole Province.

Well, yeah, the area affected by TS-force winds is sparsely populated. For some reason Matthew's south side has had a tiny wind field so far.
Flooding threat still isn't over, though. Hopefully it will end once Matt moves north.

[Hurricaneman]

I was talking about the little Peninsula Strip where they experienced the worst weather, not the whole Province.

Well, yeah, the area affected by TS-force winds is sparsely populated. For some reason Matthew's south side has had a tiny wind field so far.
Flooding threat still isn't over, though. Hopefully it will end once Matt moves north.

The ridge is stronger than currently modeled, if I'm in Jacksonville to Miami these trends would be eye popping never mind farther north

[TheStormExpert]

We've been experiencing the usual overnight and morning storm activity that has been the normal of summer here in SE Florida. This has me wondering what the strength of the Bermuda High is?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/782570785491779585

[northjaxpro]

I was talking about the little Peninsula Strip where they experienced the worst weather, not the whole Province.

Well, yeah, the area affected by TS-force winds is sparsely populated. For some reason Matthew's south side has had a tiny wind field so far.
Flooding threat still isn't over, though. Hopefully it will end once Matt moves north.

The ridge is stronger than currently modeled, if I'm in Jacksonville to Miami these trends would be eye popping never mind farther north

Well, no doubt these recent synoptic developments increasingly have me concerned, not just for the Florida East Coast potentially seeing potential impacts, but the U.S. East Coast as a whole. If these west shifts continue, lots of things remain in play. The uncertainty is uneasy for sure.

[Dean4Storms]

This West movement continues.

[miamijaaz]

We've been experiencing the usual overnight and morning storm activity that has been the normal of summer here in SE Florida. This has me wondering what the strength of the Bermuda High is?

I was thinking this same thing yesterday. We even had one afternoon thunderstorm, as is typical. It certainly did not feel like there's high pressure sitting on top of us.

Overnight and this morning its drier so far. Maybe this forecasted high pressure is now moving in or strengthening?

[KWT]

Well if it carries on that WNW/NW motion for much longer then Matthew isn't going to be joining that list of cat-4s hitting Haiti as it will miss it to the west.

NHC going to have to shift a little west again with this, even if the reasoning stays the same.

[NDG]

Matthew still jogging westward, latest recon pass.

13:34:00Z 13.950N 74.567W 696.3 mb
(~ 20.56 inHg) 2,676 meters
(~ 8,780 feet) 945.2 mb
(~ 27.91 inHg

[KWT]

Looks like the NHC has its starting point somewhat too far north and east, recon suggesting this is still just under 14N and heading near due west (at least for a short term motion.

I think we will see a sizeable wobble northwards sooner rather than later as it stair-steps its way NW/NNW.

[Evil Jeremy]

Per satellite, it's been moving almost due west (or just barely WNW), just straddling 14N for about two and a half hours now:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Airboy]

With this west movement I believe more in a close Jamaica track than a Haiti track.

[NDG]

Looks like the NHC has its starting point somewhat too far north and east, recon suggesting this is still just under 14N and heading near due west (at least for a short term motion.

I think we will see a sizeable wobble northwards sooner rather than later as it stair-steps its way NW/NNW.

It will have to start moving due north to meet its next forecasted point at 18z.

[pgoss11]

Matthew still jogging westward, latest recon pass.

13:34:00Z 13.950N 74.567W 696.3 mb
(~ 20.56 inHg) 2,676 meters
(~ 8,780 feet) 945.2 mb
(~ 27.91 inHg

Matthew will soon cross 75W. Can't help but think the west trends continue today. While I personally don't think this will get into the GOM..it is possible landfall would be farther south down the SE coast.

[GCANE]

I know this may be splitting hairs but the last vortex was 13.98N

[NDG]

It may start doing yet another loop lol.

[HurricaneEric]

Per satellite, it's been moving almost due west, just straddling 14N for about two and a half hours now:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Unless it makes a sharp turn north like NOW, it will pass 75W before hitting 14.5N much less 15N. Putting it at odds with the NHC cone, which has Matthew making north turn before 75W.

In fact, NHC cone doesn't have Matt passing 75W until the Bahamas at about 24N.

[SouthDadeFish]

It's quite possible the center is performing some sort of trochoidal oscillation (similar to yesterday) embedded within the larger-scale NW flow. If that's the case, the short-term motion will take on a more eastward and northward component later today. The recent dip to the south would support this theory, however, by no means am I sure this is happening. The longer this westerly motion lasts (say a 3-5 more hours), the more unlikely it is that this is part of a trochoidal oscillation.

Edit: For those wondering what a trochoidal oscillation looks like in a TC, here is a classic example from Hurricane Wilma (2005):

[johngaltfla]

Well if it carries on that WNW/NW motion for much longer then Matthew isn't going to be joining that list of cat-4s hitting Haiti as it will miss it to the west.

NHC going to have to shift a little west again with this, even if the reasoning stays the same.

If that confirms that could be worse for the Carolinas. Let's hope that it doesn't move too far west.

[stormreader]

Matthew still jogging westward, latest recon pass.

13:34:00Z 13.950N 74.567W 696.3 mb
(~ 20.56 inHg) 2,676 meters
(~ 8,780 feet) 945.2 mb
(~ 27.91 inHg

Matthew will soon cross 75W. Can't help but think the west trends continue today. While I personally don't think this will get into the GOM..it is possible landfall would be farther south down the SE coast.

But you see now the real possibility of an entrance into the extreme SE GOM near Key West and a run up the West Coast.