ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hipshot]

Looks NW to me (speed it up).

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray&map=county

Definitely NW!!

[O Town]

Latest 24hr microwave

[NDG]

Wow, 154 knots just 1k above the surface.

Code: Select all

Significant Wind Levels
Level   Wind Direction   Wind Speed
959mb (Surface)   355° (from the N)   112 knots (129 mph)
954mb   350° (from the N)   109 knots (125 mph)
949mb   350° (from the N)   119 knots (137 mph)
943mb   350° (from the N)   119 knots (137 mph)
938mb   350° (from the N)   134 knots (154 mph)
934mb   350° (from the N)   128 knots (147 mph)
930mb   355° (from the N)   140 knots (161 mph)
924mb   10° (from the N)   138 knots (159 mph)
918mb   20° (from the NNE)   154 knots (177 mph)
906mb   30° (from the NNE)   124 knots (143 mph)
882mb   35° (from the NE)   127 knots (146 mph)
878mb   35° (from the NE)   120 knots (138 mph)
872mb   35° (from the NE)   101 knots (116 mph)
857mb   30° (from the NNE)   87 knots (100 mph)
850mb   25° (from the NNE)   85 knots (98 mph)
817mb   10° (from the N)   80 knots (92 mph)
699mb   35° (from the NE)   84 knots (97 mph)

[NDG]

Looks NW to me (speed it up).

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray&map=county

Definitely NW!!

WNW since about midnight or shortly after, btw it has beautiful outflow.

[robbielyn]

it's not going that way. it will head into the Atlantic vs. the gulf.

[NDG]

BTW, I had one heck of a mean late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm here in the Orlando area, SW Seminole County, they even put us on a flash flood warning, first time in a long time.
What I am getting to is that the front & drier air never made it to us when a few days ago forecasters were talking about the dry air & cold front passing through here, definitely the ridge has been stronger than earlier forecasted.

Yes indeed. I agree. I also feel the ridge has been stonger than anticipated, thus the growing concerns potentially down the road with Matthew.

Check this out, the ridge to the north is not giving up that easy, we may see Matthew more westward today before it starts a more northerly track over the next couple of days.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 4java.html

[GCANE]

[AutoPenalti]

Latest 24hr microwave

Wow! I've been looking all over for this! Thank you so much, I could not remember the name.

[robbielyn]

Latest 24hr microwave

Wow! I've been looking all over for this! Thank you so much, I could not remember the name.

looks like for right now it's headed for jamaica

[GCANE]

Link: https://youtu.be/all0IAXa2UA

[O Town]

saw this last night. Amazing!!!

[wzrgirl1]

As of now according to the models it looks as if South Florida may be spared from a direct hit. Does anyone here believe that we will be under any type of tropical storm watches and warnings however?

[AdamFirst]

As of now according to the models it looks as if South Florida may be spared from a direct hit. Does anyone here believe that we will be under any type of tropical storm watches and warnings however?

It is still way too early to rule out hurricane impacts on the Florida peninsula. Still about 4 days out from that possibility.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 12:12:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°59'N 74°24'W (13.9833N 74.4W)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.97 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)

RAGGED EYEWALL

[caneman]

Based on the 5 am update, wouldnt that be almost a south motion?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/782566699065307136




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/782568780895584256

[Evil Jeremy]

Still moving steadily NW. Where it makes the full turn North is critical. NHC doesn't have this hitting 75W until mid-week. I think it can hit 75W today if it keeps up this level of westward movement.

[NDG]

Based on a website that calculates headings, average heading during the past 6 hrs this is the result:

Final bearing: 303° 09′ 05″

During the past 12 hrs this is its average heading:

Final bearing: 297° 52′ 51

[JaxGator]

Good morning everyone. We took a time warp last night I see with the satalitte outage (which was somewhat cool and bad all at once) but it's good it's fixed now. Matthew seems to be undergoing a eyewall replacement cycle, and sometimes they bounce back quickly afterwards. And I see Joe B is bent on a east solution but the Euro did shift west again and has stronger ridging (to which he said this morning that we're still not out of the woods so idk). I'm a fan of Joe B but It's a complex pattern.

[JaxGator]

And that ridge looks strong today.