ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[sponger]

If this gets far enough west could we be talking a triple US landfall as in Florida, Carolinas and the northeastern US. The models are pretty close to painting that picture

That would be ugly! Hopefully just a decent scare for all three!

[centuryv58]

If this gets far enough west could we be talking a triple US landfall as in Florida, Carolinas and the northeastern US. The models are pretty close to painting that picture

There goes the insurance market in Western Hemisphere if that happens.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is south of the 06z position by almost a degree. Slower forward progress. Looks like it will hit Jamaica head on.

[Ken711]

When are the next Euro runs?

At approximately 1:45pm.

Thanks

[gatorcane]

HWRF is south of the 06z position by almost a degree. Slower forward progress. Looks like it will hit Jamaica head on.

Notice how the GFS and GFS-based models are slowing the escape out of the Caribbean now...which is what the ECMWF has been thinking.

[Hurricaneman]

Watch out for a thumb ridge when this is in the Bahamas, the GFS is getting closer to having it north of this so its something that needs to be watched as if the ridge is stronger this could grow over Matthew and cause it to landfall somewhere in the southeastern US

[ronjon]

Inch by Inch..step by step...if I lived in SE FL I'd start getting nervous. Probably just get tropical storm force conditions but a west shift of 75 miles would put hurricane force winds on the coast. What I'm seeing that's a little disturbing and we'll have to see if it bears out in future runs is the N-NW movement starting at the latitude of Andros Island in the GFS. if this starts a little further south, might put WPB-Melbourne at risk further up the coast.

[SFLcane]

another Canadian view...

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF slams Kingston with the NE quadrant at 72 hours. Gonna be a real rough time for them.

[KWT]

HWRF still forecasting a weakening between 24-48hrs (especially in the latter part of the run). Still a strong hit through the central Caribbean.

Mind you, its already way too slow with deepening this system from the off.

[KWT]

HWRF slams Kingston with the NE quadrant at 72 hours. Gonna be a real rough time for them.

Comes in strengthening as well! As you say probably back to a major hurricane by then as per the HWRF (of course, that is assuming it DOES weakening, not showing a hint of that yet!)

[tolakram]

HWRF run so far. I don't think this is going to verify. Note the west to north west movement from the start.

[blp]

12z HWRF seeing it slower so far. I am seeing a trend today with runs being slower.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF straight north over Cuba at 87 hours right along 77 west. Biggest change from 06z is that is it SSE of the previous position.

[LarryWx]

Interestingly, the 12Z GEFS has 2 members of the 20 that actually landfall on the east coast of FL (in the Melbourne-Daytona corridor). The last GEFS run that had any FL landfalls was was way back on the 18Z run of Tue, which also had two landfalls. So, the 12Z GEFS has the first FL hits in 11 GEFS runs. Just something to keep in the back of your mind as opposed to a reason to get too worried. I'm sticking with about a 1 in 3 chance for a CONUS landfall somewhere as of now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not good, especially considering the GFS is showing the storm weakening through Saturday. If that weakening fails to materialize, there could be a massive problem for Jamaica.

[gatorcane]

Look at the 12Z GFS ensembles, there are a noticeable cluster heading NNW with a couple landfalling along the East Coast of Florida. That is a pretty interesting change from the 06Z run.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF comes off Cuba heading NNE...But as Tolakram pointed out, I don't think it's going to initially verify right out the gate because it already shows it heading West to WNW. Clearly that is not happening right now. Still almost a degree further South than 06z. Slower to exit Caribbean has been the trend today.

[fci]

Not even 200 miles away from me on the 12z GFS.

At that distance all we would get would be some gusty winds and an occasional squall.
Still the weaker side of the storm

[KWT]

HWRF comes off Cuba heading NNE...But as Tolakram pointed out, I don't think it's going to initially verify right out the gate because it already shows it heading West to WNW. Clearly that is not happening right now. Still almost a degree further South than 06z. Slower to exit Caribbean has been the trend today.

Yeah there is just a hint of NNE motion on the HWRF as it crosses over Cuba. Will see what happens as it enters into the Atlantic and hoq deep it goes in the Bahamas region.

By the way, that GFS full resolution run at 933mbs is HORRID! Thats a dangerous hurricane!