ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

I thought sure we would have a clearer picture by now but still GFS is playing games with the coast.

12Z run

[MWatkins]

GFS is such a close call to several locations, really wouldn't need much of a further westward shift to get that into Florida from this point. Such shifts have certainly happened in the past and are well within the margins of what is possible.

Absolutely within the 4-5 day average error rate. A storm this big could put some significant surge into the Keys (at a minimum). We will need to at least prepare for a hurricane here in SFL if these tracks verify.

MW

[SFLcane]

Canadian 12z

[CrazyC83]

I don't buy 918mb off NC. Definitely warm waters and is over the GS, but they don't run as deep as the Bahamas/WCarib. Better be moving fast.

As far as I know, 930mb is the record for that part of the Atlantic (Helene 1958).

[TheStormExpert]

Not even 200 miles away from me on the 12z GFS.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS westward again 70-75 miles

http://i63.tinypic.com/24npv91.png

A couple of more west shifts like that and that would put the SE Florida coastline under some very nasty weather even if it passes to our east...

The entire Florida east coast. Watching intently from Jax.

[sma10]

Looks like the CMC after having a mostly sane week, has reverted to its wondrous wackiness, showing some kind of weird fujiwhara. Pretty picture at 198 hours with 2 ginormous hurricanes dancing around.

[gatorcane]

Another look at the 12Z GFS animation out through hour 150:

[KWT]

That 12z CMC is way too close, remember we don't need a landfall to get decent winds into the extreme east part of Florida, a close shave will probably still get those hurricane force winds close to land, especially if it does ramp back up once past Cuba.

[p1nheadlarry]

I don't buy 918mb off NC. Definitely warm waters and is over the GS, but they don't run as deep as the Bahamas/WCarib. Better be moving fast.

As far as I know, 930mb is the record for that part of the Atlantic (Helene 1958).

Helene did something similar in track too, smelled the bug spray or something as it got close to land and said "nope"

[Ken711]

When are the next Euro runs?

[drezee]

GFS says slow and go is not the only option...the second trough goes negative tilt and phases with Matthew...wow...12 hours slower and that is the long Island express II

Canadian does the same phase!!! Wow...

[TheStormExpert]

Canadian 12z

http://i65.tinypic.com/oh3141.png

Could warrant a TS Watch at least for parts of the East Coast of Florida.

[LarryWx]

the UK shifted from Haiti to Cuba. It is also well west at 144 compared to the 0Z

Upon further review. I'm mistaken as I now see that the 12Z UK had a west shift of 1 degree at hour 132 vs the 0Z UK's 144 hour map from ~74.8W to 75.8W. However, the north shift was more pronounced with it going from near 22.4N to 24.7N. Overall, it was about a 175 mile NNW shift from the 0Z UK 144 to the 12Z UK 132.

[TheStormExpert]

When are the next Euro runs?

At approximately 1:45pm.

[Evil Jeremy]

When are the next Euro runs?

45 minutes!

[Hurricaneman]

If this gets far enough west could we be talking a triple US landfall as in Florida, Carolinas and the northeastern US. The models are pretty close to painting that picture

[chris_fit]

Down to 960mb - Still has a S component - Wonder if it will get below 13.5 - that's the NHC 'low' point

[KWT]

If this gets far enough west could we be talking a triple US landfall as in Florida, Carolinas and the northeastern US. The models are pretty close to painting that picture

My gut says it stays just offshore, but given what the models are suggesting its going to end up a close run thing. Still a slight westward trend occurring.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the CMC, I think Matthew could landfall in SE Florida (or come real close skirting the coast) had it not been for that spurious TC it develops to the east that might help erode the Bermuda High. There is actually some NNW movement when it is near Andros Island.