ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[MWatkins]

12Z GFS has stronger ridging north of Matthew at 138 hrs, increasing the risk to the NC coast.

The trend at day 5-6 increases the risk for the southeast US coast from FL to NC, although I agree the highest absolute increase in risk would be NC.

MW

[TheDreamTraveler]

[SFLcane]

GFS westward again 70-75 miles

[stormlover2013]

Cmc is close to Florida also

[Ken711]

HR 216 and a strong storm curving back into Maine.

A darn Cat 4 pressure into Maine...geez

Wouldn't the cooler waters North of the OBX weaken Matthew as it continued North?

[TimeZone]

What hooks it back to the W on the GFS there? Odd track.

[Alyono]

the UK shifted from Haiti to Cuba. It is also well west at 144 compared to the 0Z

[TheDreamTraveler]

HR 216 and a strong storm curving back into Maine.

A darn Cat 4 pressure into Maine...geez

Wouldn't the cooler waters North of the OBX weaken Matthew as it continued North?

If it ended up over that area it would depend on how fast it was moving. Moving faster it would take longer to weaken. If it's slower it'd have more time over that cooler water to weaken. So all depends on its forward speed if that were to verify.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'd get flattened by that. Thank goodness it is still so far out, and only one model run.

[drezee]

HR 216 and a strong storm curving back into Maine.

A darn Cat 4 pressure into Maine...geez

Wouldn't the cooler waters North of the OBX weaken Matthew as it continued North?

Not necessarily, the wind field would broadened with other processes providing lift...but it would be terrible

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/781890157335248896

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

A darn Cat 4 pressure into Maine...geez

Wouldn't the cooler waters North of the OBX weaken Matthew as it continued North?

If it ended up over that area it would depend on how fast it was moving. Moving faster it would take longer to weaken. If it's slower it'd have more time over that cooler water to weaken. So all depends on its forward speed if that were to verify.

It also would depend on trough interaction and degree of possible resulting hybridization.

[hurricaneCW]

I know the trend for months has been stronger ridging in the western Atlantic so that's interesting. I did think it was odd that models took Matthew nearly due east once near NC.

[p1nheadlarry]

HR 216 and a strong storm curving back into Maine.

A darn Cat 4 pressure into Maine...geez

At that size near 950 mb I'd reckon it's around 90-100 kt. Higher gusts if it's accelerating, and it appears to be completely tropical

[sma10]

Cmc is close to Florida also

Is that a little tropical storm marching northwards in tandem with Matthew to his east on the CMC?

[KWT]

GFS is such a close call to several locations, really wouldn't need much of a further westward shift to get that into Florida from this point. Such shifts have certainly happened in the past and are well within the margins of what is possible.

[AutoPenalti]

But now notice that the trend has been shifting west since 48 hours ago. I wouldn't be surprise as we get close to curtains it will be shifting more to the west.

[gatorcane]

GFS westward again 70-75 miles

http://i63.tinypic.com/24npv91.png

A couple of more west shifts like that and that would put the SE Florida coastline under some very nasty weather even if it passes to our east...

[KWT]

Cmc is close to Florida also

Is that a little tropical storm marching northwards in tandem with Matthew to his east on the CMC?

There does seem to be an odd low that forms to the NE on both the GFS and the CMC. which if it weren't to form would probably put paid to that sharper east bend those models have.

[p1nheadlarry]

I know the trend for months has been stronger ridging in the western Atlantic so that's interesting. I did think it was odd that models took Matthew nearly due east once near NC.

The GFS wrote my shield as a term in the N-S eqn, that's all