ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

As good an explanation as we have right now, I guess. The hard part is explaining how it contributes/hurts the main circulation of Matthew and when it finally merges or dissipates.

Thanks for that, 1900. I follow, and like, Anthony a lot.

Hmm, pretty much what I said on page 142 earlier this afternoon:


" The deeper convention blob to the east of the core is probably just convergence with the Caribbean easterly trade winds as Matthew gets pinned between the trades and the front. "

[p1nheadlarry]

Looks to me like the front coming through Texas might decide the steering issues here and be Florida's friend.



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That and/or the low in the NE US going east and deepening some.

[CrazyC83]

There won't be recon for the next 2 advisories but given the increase in organization I would put the intensity again at 135-140 kt.

Maybe? But I would be cautious about adjusting the intensity right now. It is inconclusive and a 5 kt increase is largely within the range of uncertainty.

[SouthernBreeze]

I'm wondering if it could be possible after crossing islands Matt may shed his "blob" & weaken considerably without it?

[Evenstar]

Would love to have a couple of Gulfstream IVs riding around in Matthew and the blob at the same time. Such an odd configuration. Btw I have seen this in some really powerful typhoons in the NW PAC a few times but not as extreme as this where the blob to the east is larger and stronger than the core of the main TC. Fascinating.

Am I the only one that finds it fascinating AND alarming? Will Matthew and the blob "go Borg" and assimilate each other? If so, would that make Matthew bigger and badder than before "going Borg" or would it sort of dilute him a bit? (sorry for all my highly technical language there)

[ozonepete]

Would this impede the models in any way? This thing looks massive.

Don't think so. As I posted earlier, I've seen this before in the northwest Pacific with super typhoons and it eventually gets absorbed or fades away. And during the time it was there the models didn't really change in their forecasts. The only thing I do remember was that it impeded strengthening while it was still sizeable.

[wxman57]

Matthew has definitely turned northward now. It may even pass over western Haiti vs. Jamaica, as per the EC. The GFS has moved Matthew way too fast all along. It takes Matthew to the OB of NC a good 12-18 hours ahead of the EC. Each GFS run slows it down more, though. I think it's moving Matthew so fast that it gets to the Carolinas before the upper trof that would steer it NE arrives.

[p1nheadlarry]

Matthew has definitely turned northward now. It may even pass over western Haiti vs. Jamaica, as per the EC. The GFS has moved Matthew way too fast all along. It takes Matthew to the OB of NC a good 12-18 hours ahead of the EC. Each GFS run slows it down more, though. I think it's moving Matthew so fast that it gets to the Carolinas before the upper trof that would steer it NE arrives.

Not what I want to hear a pro met say, we're a while away I guess. But I'd gladly take the landfall here if it meant sparing poor Haiti

[otowntiger]

Wow! That is very strange.

[toad strangler]

Matthew has definitely turned northward now. It may even pass over western Haiti vs. Jamaica, as per the EC. The GFS has moved Matthew way too fast all along. It takes Matthew to the OB of NC a good 12-18 hours ahead of the EC. Each GFS run slows it down more, though. I think it's moving Matthew so fast that it gets to the Carolinas before the upper trof that would steer it NE arrives.

Not what I want to hear a pro met say, we're a while away I guess. But I'd gladly take the landfall here if it meant sparing poor Haiti

He pretty much just said he believes in the scoop up and OTS before landfall scenario.

[Ken711]

Matthew has definitely turned northward now. It may even pass over western Haiti vs. Jamaica, as per the EC. The GFS has moved Matthew way too fast all along. It takes Matthew to the OB of NC a good 12-18 hours ahead of the EC. Each GFS run slows it down more, though. I think it's moving Matthew so fast that it gets to the Carolinas before the upper trof that would steer it NE arrives.

Slow is good then?

[ObsessedMiami]

Fl Peninsula completely out of the 11pm cone.

[p1nheadlarry]

Matthew has definitely turned northward now. It may even pass over western Haiti vs. Jamaica, as per the EC. The GFS has moved Matthew way too fast all along. It takes Matthew to the OB of NC a good 12-18 hours ahead of the EC. Each GFS run slows it down more, though. I think it's moving Matthew so fast that it gets to the Carolinas before the upper trof that would steer it NE arrives.

Not what I want to hear a pro met say, we're a while away I guess. But I'd gladly take the landfall here if it meant sparing poor Haiti

I think he just said he believes in the scoop up and OTS before landfall scenario.

Ah, I catch that now. I've been leaning OTS a la ECMWF myself.

[AutoPenalti]

Someone mentioned earlier that a slower track meant a bigger threat to SFL and OBX?

[SouthernBreeze]

right now slow is great!

[ozonepete]

As good an explanation as we have right now, I guess. The hard part is explaining how it contributes/hurts the main circulation of Matthew and when it finally merges or dissipates.

Thanks for that, 1900. I follow, and like, Anthony a lot.

Hmm, pretty much what I said on page 142 earlier this afternoon:


" The deeper convention blob to the east of the core is probably just convergence with the Caribbean easterly trade winds as Matthew gets pinned between the trades and the front. "

Good for you! I missed that earlier post but as I said it seems like a decent explanation. I will have to go back at some point and look at some of my saved west PAC typhoon data and see if the ones that I remember doing this were also stalled out with blockage to the west. Makes a lot of sense.

[bp92]

Yep, rain has ceased here. So long, Matthew! (for me at least)
Also, it seems like the... "thing" attached to Matthew is now larger than the storm itself?

[1900hurricane]

The prominence of the convective cluster in the eastern bands actually reminds me somewhat reminds me of Pali earlier this year.

[Ken711]

South Florida out of the cone in the 11:00 PM NHC advisory with a slight shift east.

[toad strangler]

Fl Peninsula completely out of the 11pm cone.

Indeed. They moved it 14.5 feet into the ocean.