ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[wxman57]

I am seeing a very slight shift west on the 12Z GFS in the Bahamas with slightly more ridging at hour 120.

Very, very slight. Right about over Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas. Our 5-day point & NHC's are very close together - over Eleuthera. Ridge to the north at that point but a cold front is approaching from the west.

[gatorcane]

Even slightly closer by hour 126 to the Florida SE coastline:

[crimi481]

Last NHC discussion definitely hints of uncertain caution. Models have their work cut for them

[SouthFLTropics]

Slower and definitely more SW in the Bahamas at hour 126. More ridging as well. Things are getting interesting.

[SFLcane]

Hmmm

[PTrackerLA]

At 132hrs it's quite a bit further SW from the 06z run. Man this is such a close call for the EC .

[centuryv58]

Last NHC discussion definitely hints of uncertain caution. Models have their work cut for them

Agree. FL is still in the woods.

[bqknight]

Serious question - I see that there is a Low coming in from Canada around this time but it still looks like the High is still right over Matthew. What is making it push through that High?

[gatorcane]

Notice in the 12Z GFS it is moving NNW through the Bahamas instead of nearly due north on the 06Z GFS - a slight bit more ridging is what that is telling me and a little slower. The UKMET has even more ridging and more of a WNW turn. Very interesting the GFS is trended a little slower and slightly more west here.

[cajungal]

Wonder if there is any chance that the ridging would be strong enough that if it did get pushed to south Florida, would it get pushed into the gulf. I think prob not but it is a thought.

[chris_fit]

Significant West shift @ 144

[TheDreamTraveler]

If this were farther away from the coast this very slight west shift wouldn't matter much. But given any amount of movement west can greatly change the outcome of conditions on the Florida coast and upward means the final outcome would be much different since it cuts it so close. Any little shift right now is enough to cause minimal impacts to large impacts.

Especially if the wind field is huge on this storm after it exits Cuba. If the storm is still really strong once it gets near the east coast then conditions could get pretty bad.

Really curious to see what the ECMWF shows. And obviously the GFS runs tonight into tomorrow.

[gatorcane]

Wow more noticeable differences by hour 132 as it moves NNW closer to the FL coast and SE United States:

[LarryWx]

This may be a closer call to or even a scrape of NC because the NE high is stronger than the last few runs as of hour 144 on the 12Z GFS

[centuryv58]

Last NHC discussion definitely hints of uncertain caution. Models have their work cut for them

Agree. FL is still in the woods.

PS. Accuweather still has TS force winds at my condo later next week.

[SouthFLTropics]

Much more SW at 144...the Midwest cold front can't dig fast enough. It better hurry or South Carolina is in play.

[stormlover2013]

Carolina bound

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has stronger ridging north of Matthew at 138 hrs, increasing the risk to the NC coast.

[blp]

Much more ridging now. How can this escape at this point? Also seems slower timeframe wise.. The more it keeps slowing down the time frame the greater possibility of a trap scenario.

[MississippiWx]

12z GFS 100 miles SW of 6z run at hour 150.