ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

Wow, interesting development, looks to hit OTS. Hmm...

EDIT: Nope there's that WNW movement Hr 144, lol.

Lets see


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[SFLcane]

Out to sea

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks further east than the 12Z.

[AutoPenalti]

Woah, I retract my statement! Looks OTS ATM.

[LarryWx]

Based on hour 144, I'm even more confident that it will recurve OTS and probably east of the 12Z Thu run,

[WeatherEmperor]

Well...looks like the dropsonde data didnt do jack to bring better model agreement! LoL this sucks


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[wxmann_91]

This has a good chance of riding up the east coast if it were not for that cutoff in the western Atlantic. As it is verbatim almost certainly OTS. That cutoff has been persistent in the modeling, but this setup is still quite sensitive to perturbations in the Day 5+ timeframe. Still lots of uncertainty.

[AutoPenalti]

Something doesn't feel right about this run...

[wxmann_91]

Well...looks like the dropsonde data didnt do jack to bring better model agreement! LoL this sucks


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Of course it did not, because the differences in modeling arise mostly from differences in handling the midlatitude features still over the Pacific Ocean and continental North America.

[SouthernBreeze]

Well...looks like the dropsonde data didnt do jack to bring better model agreement! LoL this sucks

I thought that all drops data wouldn't be included until runs after 06z

[LarryWx]

This has a good chance of riding up the east coast if it were not for that cutoff in the western Atlantic. As it is verbatim almost certainly OTS. That cutoff has been persistent in the modeling, but this setup is still quite sensitive to perturbations in the Day 5+ timeframe. Still lots of uncertainty.

That cutoff in the W Atlantic is actually the same one that is now over KY.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

im amazed at the fact that this storm has covered a very decent amount of longitude in such a short amount of time it seems, i think this time last night it was in the high 50s and now its at 69 and keeps moving through and the latitude has barely moved at all from

[Aric Dunn]

168 hours it bends back due north. this run has that random low that develops off the eastern seaboard again.. weird. one run it does not next run it does.

[wxmann_91]

This has a good chance of riding up the east coast if it were not for that cutoff in the western Atlantic. As it is verbatim almost certainly OTS. That cutoff has been persistent in the modeling, but this setup is still quite sensitive to perturbations in the Day 5+ timeframe. Still lots of uncertainty.

That cutoff in the W Atlantic is actually the same one that is now over KY.

Correct. The models have had trouble with the evolution of this feature from before Matthew was an Invest. The GFS didn't have the low in the beginning, which is why it initially showed Matthew as a Caribbean Cruiser headed towards the Gulf Coast.

Not even our beloved Euro has had any consistency with evolving this feature; just 24 hr ago it had a 588 ridge instead of that low over the western Atlantic in a week.

[WeatherEmperor]

168 hours it bends back due north. this run has that random low that develops off the eastern seaboard again.. weird. one run it does not next run it does.

Exactly! This run to run inconsistency is frustrating. I saw it too reviewing older runs


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[sma10]

Okay, everyone ready for tonight's bonus challenge question?

Just a stone throw away from the Florida coast, this Island get-a-way boasts fun, fishing, diving, and seafood delicacies! But, hold on to your hats folks and see if you can name the top 5 reasons NOT to travel to the paradise destination - Andros Island next week.

Answer #1 - GFS 0Z run - Hurricane Landfall in 126 hr.'s (or 6Z Wed)
Answer #2 - CMC 0Z run - Hurricane Landfall in 108 hr.'s (or 12Z Tue)
Answer #3 - GEM 12 run - Hurricane Landfall in 102 hr.'s (or 6Z Tue)
Answer #4 - JMA 12 run - Hurricane Landfall in 132 hr.'s (or 12Z Wed)
Answer #5 - HWRF 0Z run - Eye Wall Conditions in 108 hr.'s (or 12z Tue)

...but if you said GFDL, well TOO BAD - you lose, and are off to Jupiter, Florida for a Hurricane Landfall in 126 hours (or 06 Wed)

And if history is our guide ... this will not hit Andros Island

[AutoPenalti]

Well, may we officially call this run a bust then? It seemed off from the start.

[wxmann_91]

Well, may we officially call this run a bust then? It seemed off from the start.

There is nothing wrong with this run. It has just about the same chance of verifying as the GFS solution.

[Bocadude85]

Well at least the GFS & EURO are agreeing better on the time frame.

[AutoPenalti]

Was the dropsonde injested in the last run?