ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

People are talking in the models sections about how poorly the models have been and are performing on Matthew. It seems to be a guessing game at this point.
Do any of you feel insecure about all of the back and forth? This is a serious major hurricane, and where and when is it going? No one seems to know.

The differences in trajectory from run to run and model to model are not that large given the time frames (5-7 days) that people are talking about. If the storm was headed due west into Florida nobody would be all that worried about the variances in trajectory. The problem is simply magnified by the shallow angle of incidence relative to the US East Coast -- a difference in a few degrees of heading means a Cat 4/5 into Miami, into the Outer Banks and New England, or OTS.

I'm following the models closely like any good weather junkie -- but I am not particularly concerned that they are performing poorly by any means.

[bp92]

NOAA is not doing center fixes. The purpose of this flight is NOT to fix the center

Also, any word from Colombia? That rainband has remained over a normally dry area all day. I suspect the flooding is bad there

The good news is that area does not look very heavily populated, very sparse.

Colombian here (lurker since Patricia '15), reporting from Barranquilla.
Unfortunately, the Guajira region isn't that sparsely populated (almost one million people), and there's still the threat of rain elsewhere (we've had constant on-off rain for about a day, and we're a good 200km from Riohacha). Not too many reports from the region, but the reports so far have been relatively benign (some damage due to wind in northern Guajira + flooding/high surf elsewhere, and one death due to drowning).
The region is pretty much flat, except for the sparsely-populated Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta. There's the chance that some rivers coming down from the massif may overflow and threaten Santa Marta and Riohacha, though.
Now, if Matthew actually decides to turn south for good, it would hit several flat coastline towns, which are completely and utterly unprepared for a hurricane (and may even ignore the threat of Matthew until he's right on top of them). Matthew would most likely weaken a lot, since the Sierra Nevada's very tall (highest peak at 18700ft/5700m), but the surge and the wind would most certainly be deadly.
So, he better turn around right now...

[abajan]

About 20 minutes ago, one of our local meteorologists stated on TV that Matthew is Category 5. Seriously? Every time a hurricane reaches 150 mph there are people who say it's a Cat 5. I can understand a layman making that mistake, but a meteorologist? And apparently, he's not the only meteorologist who thinks 150 mph is Cat 5, because while speaking to someone on the phone an hour ago, they said they was just watching a meteorologist on CNN who said the same thing.

[jlauderdal]

New Levi video.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/782358910049091585

watch his videos if you are at all confused as to the setup...provides clarity on a daily basis

[LCfromFL]

New Levi video.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/782358910049091585

watch his videos if you are at all confused as to the setup...provides clarity on a daily basis

Levi does a great job of explaining things - really makes it easy to understand.

[Nimbus]

You can see the high cirrus expanding on the water vapor loop.
That usually indicates some pumping of the ridging the storm is embedded in.
So up to the latitude of Cuba where the outflow is expanding any stall or delay in the northerly motion slower than the current forecast might bring the future model runs back west a little.
Further north near NC the delay might give the forecast trough more time to arrive and take Mathew out to sea.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

[ozonepete]

Aside from all of the track guessing going on, I see some are speculating that it could get back to cat 5 tomorrow before reaching Haiti and Jamaica. Unfortunately it's not out of the question. On this IR satellite image from 5:45PM EDT I circled that large area of convection to the east of Matthew's main circulation. It has been around for a couple of days now and appears to be reaching a maximum. Though it's hard to discern exactly why it formed or why it has persisted so long, at this point it seems likely that it is now taking some energy away from Matthew that could be used to maintain or increase his strength. My only guess is that it has something to do with the shape and topography of the northern S.A. coast, but regardless one would think if it weren't there Matthew would gain a really symmetric circular shape and thus re-intensify. If Matthew does indeed start moving NNW soon and further away from the S.A. coast that area of convection will either die out and/or merge with the main circulation and allow Matthew to regain a very symmetric flow and probably intensify. The other obvious factor is that if Matthew doesn't start moving soon there will be upwelling of cooler water under it that will aid in weakening.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/782362702127792128

[tolakram]

ir loop. Looks very cool sped up.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray&map=county

color version

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[galaxy401]

This storm is crazy to track. Any little movement could affect the track in some way. I heard that a recon plane is heading back, hope there is another one soon since Matthew looks intense right now...

That eastern part is very intense. If it maintains that when it passes Haiti, that will be catastrophic...

[CrazyC83]

The most recent Air Force plane AF302 had to return to base due to technical issues. Not sure when the next plane will fly out.

[JtSmarts]

That Levi video GOLD! Did an excellent job of explaining all the different players on the field and why this situation is so complex.

[Michele B]

People are talking in the models sections about how poorly the models have been and are performing on Matthew. It seems to be a guessing game at this point.
Do any of you feel insecure about all of the back and forth? This is a serious major hurricane, and where and when is it going? No one seems to know.

I've pointed this out before. I think the promets tend to RELY on the models too much. Even when it appears the models have missed the mark, they cling to them religiously! I want to ask - WHO's the ULTIMATE AUTHORITY to decide a particular model is trash, and to quit using it?!?!

"Garbage in, garbage out," they say. So maybe they need to UPDATE the algorithms with newer info, rather than looking back on what geo-climatalogical conditions looked like 10-20-30 years ago. I KNOW it's hard, since we don't have analogs to enter in from 100 years ago, say.

Cause like we all know, the more data you can input, the more accurate outcomes you can expect. 1,000 pieces of data are going to give a more complete pic than 10!

[hurricanefloyd5]

Tue-Sat... Forecast continues to hinge on the future NHC track of
major Hurricane "Matthew" in the south central Caribbean. The system
is forecast make a sharp northwest turn over the next 24hrs before
heading due north north toward the Windward Passage/eastern Cuba
through Monday evng. Model guidance suggests "Matthew" lifting thru
the central Bahamas as a Cat 2 hurricane btwn 00Z Tue and 00Z
Wed...by which time the east central FL peninsula will fall
increasingly under the influence of its wind field.

At

[BZSTORM]

OK just went to look at the GOES Floater for Matthew and it might be web issue but NHC floater sat link is showing just black screen with land maps and grid no actual images. Has this happened in the past?

[BobHarlem]

Floater black out?

[AxaltaRacing24]

OK just went to look at the GOES Floater for Matthew and it might be web issue but NHC floater sat link is showing just black screen with land maps and grid no actual images. Has this happened in the past?

And things keep becoming more strange... What the hell is going on?

[ozonepete]

Satellite black outs happen every once and a while. Just wait.

[gatorcane]

Floater black out?

Yes all NHC and RAMMB SAT imagery have a black out on last frame

[jlauderdal]

more info for you folks to resolve

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... restrength