ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

Mitch was a big rainmaker. Many rain gauge got washed away. The highest I read was 75 inches of rain. No doubt some areas could see as much as 100 inches of rain.

The only saving grace is that it should be moving somewhat faster than Mitch was (it stalled near Central America for 3-4 days) but still 24-36 hours of extreme rainfall is possible.

24 to 36 hours is going to be bad enough. 3 to 4 days is in a class of its own.

Have a look at the rainfall totals in Silver Hill Jamaica during the passage of a hurricane in 1909. Epic!

[p1nheadlarry]

SO the 18z GFS just started and has a slightly stronger western atlantic ridge initialized ..

Uh oh. That doesn't sound like good news for interests in FL

Interests in Florida? How about the Carolinas (sure a little bias) which has seen a landfall on recent runs of the GFS and UKMET?

[Aric Dunn]

it has completely just stalled now.. if it does not start its motion to the north in the next 4 to 6 hours that backs up all the models by nearly 12 hours from the 11am position.

[Blinhart]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Looking at that, I don't see anything to make it turn North right now, and the cool front that came through Louisiana a couple days ago seems to be breaking down. So can someone please explain to me what is suppose to make this system move North right now. I understand there are suppose to be things forming in the next 36 hours to cause it to move North, but they aren't there right now.

[hurricanedude]

Meaning what aric as far as outcome

[hurricanefloyd5]

I believe this stall may be the result of the track being pushed further west

[RickM]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Looking at that, I don't see anything to make it turn North right now, and the cool front that came through Louisiana a couple days ago seems to be breaking down. So can someone please explain to me what is suppose to make this system move North right now. I understand there are suppose to be things forming in the next 36 hours to cause it to move North, but they aren't there right now.

Well, something is making it spin in circles. That's my expert opinion!

[Michele B]

I believe this stall may be the result of the track being pushed further west

?????

I don't follow.

Could you elaborate on this please.

[Kazmit]

Any estimates for wind speeds/pressure for the 8pm advisory?

[dukeblue219]

Any estimates for wind speeds/pressure for the 8pm advisory?

Won't be too much change without a current recon in the system. Probably 940mb and 150mph. Maybe 155?

[Evil Jeremy]

Any estimates for wind speeds/pressure for the 8pm advisory?

Won't be too much change without a current recon in the system. Probably 940mb and 150mph. Maybe 155?

No need to raise (or lower) intensity now, no immediate land threat. 8pm advisory should just be mostly a position update.

Welcome to the forum!

[ronjon]

Imagine MATT's going to really run up the ACE this year.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I believe this stall may be the result of the track being pushed further west

?????

I don't follow.

Could you elaborate on this please.

Because it stalled the track could shift westward

[AxaltaRacing24]

Imagine MATT's going to really run up the ACE this year.

It already added enough ACE to make the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season a normal season.

[Evil Jeremy]

The situation is looking a little brighter today for the Florida coast, through the Carolinas. Whereas the models spent all of yesterday slowly shifting west (GFS making the largest of those shifts), today they have stepped back slightly. Not enough to secure safety anywhere, but better than moving further west.

Next couple hours are critical. Matthew has completed his cyclonic loop. So now what kind of motion does he maintain? Let's see what happens tonight.

[cycloneye]

New Levi video.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/782358910049091585

[hurricanehunter69]

Still looks like it's moving west to me...per ( Mimic-TPW ) Although much slower. Forward motion is key....Another trough/front will eventually come along and pick it up if it just sits there. It would have to be a strong front though! I certainly do not see a strong trough developing in the Gulf...? It does look like the ridge in the western Atlantic is in the process of weakening; which is probably the cause for the stall/loop/slow down. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[CDO62]

I believe this stall may be the result of the track being pushed further west

?????

I don't follow.

Could you elaborate on this please.

Because it stalled the track could shift westward

Or.....it could cause the track to shift Eastward.

[sunnyday]

People are talking in the models sections about how poorly the models have been and are performing on Matthew. It seems to be a guessing game at this point.
Do any of you feel insecure about all of the back and forth? This is a serious major hurricane, and where and when is it going? No one seems to know.

[Ken711]

I believe this stall may be the result of the track being pushed further west

?????

I don't follow.

Could you elaborate on this please.

Because it stalled the track could shift westward

Ridge building in the cause?