ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

Possible max rain amounts of 40" for Haiti!

Unfortunately,'they are going to be on the wrong side of this storm

[Michele B]

SO the 18z GFS just started and has a slightly stronger western atlantic ridge initialized ..

Uh oh. That doesn't sound like good news for interests in FL

[beachnut]

We have seen storms in the carribean take longer to be pulled north as the models thought.
Wilma and Mitch are two examples.

Both of which hit us here, Wilma threw a tree limb on our van and Mitch damaged our boat. Then there's this Charley-like storm Matthew with it's tiny eye and tight max wind field. That one whacked the house pretty good back in '04. Models look good for us west coast Floridians so far, but not letting our guard down yet, so back to lurking and watching.

[Nimbus]

Nobody could predict Mitch it wasn't the NHC fault.
They meander around for a week and the steering changes.
Derek from Storm2k called the Charley turn between NHC advisories.

[abajan]

what good station in Jamaica hear news how getting ready down their?

Power 106 seems pretty okay, but if anyone can point me to an English station (radio or TV) in Haiti, that would be great, because right now it looks like Haiti is likely to get a much bigger impact from Matthew than Jamaica.

[robbielyn]

Nexrad called Charlie using ruc-2

[psyclone]

interesting to note that the wind probabilities are now higher for the western Tiburon peninsula (Haiti) than they are for eastern Jamaica. the threat to Haiti (all hazards) is grave.

[CrazyC83]

Somehow I think, if it doesn't weaken in the short term, it could go back to Cat 5 sometime tonight or tomorrow...

[stormreader]

We have seen storms in the carribean take longer to be pulled north as the models thought.
Wilma and Mitch are two examples.

Both of which hit us here, Wilma threw a tree limb on our van and Mitch damaged our boat. Then there's this Charley-like storm Matthew with it's tiny eye and tight max wind field. That one whacked the house pretty good back in '04. Models look good for us west coast Floridians so far, but not letting our guard down yet, so back to lurking and watching.

Yeah, models look good right now. But this is very tricky. Be careful, I think the West Coast is still very much in play.

[Cunxi Huang]

GOES-13 2145Z RGB

[abajan]

Possible max rain amounts of 40" for Haiti!

Unfortunately,'they are going to be on the wrong side of this storm

Yep. That 40" is the part of the advisory which got my attention. The most rain I've ever experienced was about 20" during a tropical depression in 1970, and the flooding was tremendous. It's hard to imagine what 40" would be like. To compound matters, there has been much deforestation of Haiti's hills and mountains over the years (for firewood, I think). This increases the risk of mudslides.

[CrazyC83]

Possible max rain amounts of 40" for Haiti!

Unfortunately,'they are going to be on the wrong side of this storm

Yep. That 40" is the part of the advisory which got my attention. The most rain I've ever experienced was about 20" during a tropical depression in 1970, and the flooding was tremendous. It's hard to imagine what 40" would be like. To compound matters, there has been much deforestation of Haiti's hills and mountains over the years (for firewood, I think). This increases the risk of mudslides.

That will likely be cataclysmic. If those numbers verify, we could easily see death tolls in the thousands.

[psyclone]

Possible max rain amounts of 40" for Haiti!

Unfortunately,'they are going to be on the wrong side of this storm

Yep. That 40" is the part of the advisory which got my attention. The most rain I've ever experienced was about 20" during a tropical depression in 1970, and the flooding was tremendous. It's hard to imagine what 40" would be like. To compound matters, there has been much deforestation of Haiti's hills and mountains over the years (for firewood, I think). This increases the risk of mudslides.

Agree. This has Mitch potential.

[beachnut]

I called Charley a full day before he knocked on (and almost down) our door, at least in my family and was putting up my storm panels while my friends and neighbors were shrugging it it off. Fortunately our home then was brand new and up-to-code for the time. Now we're back on the water in a 1973 special ... built like a tank but no shutters or impact glass. Matthew can dissipate or go OTS for all I care, but someone's going to get it bad I fear and our thoughts and prayers go out to them. We shall see ...

[Ptarmigan]

Possible max rain amounts of 40" for Haiti!

That would be a very severe disaster for Haiti.

[Ptarmigan]

NHC says 130 knots now, not far away from Cat 5 status again.

I would not be surprised if Matthew becomes Category 5 again.

[Ptarmigan]

Unfortunately,'they are going to be on the wrong side of this storm

Yep. That 40" is the part of the advisory which got my attention. The most rain I've ever experienced was about 20" during a tropical depression in 1970, and the flooding was tremendous. It's hard to imagine what 40" would be like. To compound matters, there has been much deforestation of Haiti's hills and mountains over the years (for firewood, I think). This increases the risk of mudslides.

Agree. This has Mitch potential.

Mitch was a big rainmaker. Many rain gauge got washed away. The highest I read was 75 inches of rain. No doubt some areas could see as much as 100 inches of rain.

[CrazyC83]

Yep. That 40" is the part of the advisory which got my attention. The most rain I've ever experienced was about 20" during a tropical depression in 1970, and the flooding was tremendous. It's hard to imagine what 40" would be like. To compound matters, there has been much deforestation of Haiti's hills and mountains over the years (for firewood, I think). This increases the risk of mudslides.

Agree. This has Mitch potential.

Mitch was a big rainmaker. Many rain gauge got washed away. The highest I read was 75 inches of rain. No doubt some areas could see as much as 100 inches of rain.

The only saving grace is that it should be moving somewhat faster than Mitch was (it stalled near Central America for 3-4 days) but still 24-36 hours of extreme rainfall is possible.

[Ptarmigan]

Mitch was a big rainmaker. Many rain gauge got washed away. The highest I read was 75 inches of rain. No doubt some areas could see as much as 100 inches of rain.

The only saving grace is that it should be moving somewhat faster than Mitch was (it stalled near Central America for 3-4 days) but still 24-36 hours of extreme rainfall is possible.

24 to 36 hours is going to be bad enough. 3 to 4 days is in a class of its own.

[wxman57]

The 18Z GFS is over 24 hours ahead of the 12Z EC offshore NC, which is why it takes it closer to the coast - the upper trof hasn't reached far enough east to pick it up in time. The ECMWF is slower with Matthew, giving time for the trof to reach the east coast and keeping the center farther offshore. I suspect the GFS is too fast and the track will be farther offshore. Compare the 18Z run with previous runs - it keeps slowing down Matthew a lot each run. The slowing down will likely continue in future runs. It's all coming down to timing.