ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2921 Postby Airboy » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:11 pm

What is Gonzo doing?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2922 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:13 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:Where did this "hot tower" terminology come from? Seems to be the phrase of the year around here.


The hot tower hypothesis was proposed in 1958 by Herbert Riehl and Joanne Simpson
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_tower

A "HOT TOWER" ABOVE THE EYE CAN MAKE HURRICANES STRONGER
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/new ... louds.html

And other tons of info out there.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2923 Postby Blinhart » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:14 pm

I just know every one from Colombia to Nova Scotia (all of the GoM, East Coast, Central America) needs to keep an eye on this system since this is a system that has decided to go no wheres for the past 12 hours (pretty much) and is just having the eye going around in circles, this system is trying to make up his mind on if he is gonna go South, East, North, West or any wheres. So until I see Matt start moving at a good pace (over 10 MPH) I wouldn't let your guard down.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2924 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:14 pm

big question is now.. how long doe sit have to stay stalled or drift to upset the general timing of the models and that trough.. ? already 7 hours behind almost.. 10 , 12 hours before we see some models really change ?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2925 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:15 pm

I just took a closer look at the low level flow across the entire Atlantic and I'm tending to agree with Aric right now...I think Matthew is stuck for the time being.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2926 Postby ObsessedMiami » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:17 pm

Until the turn is made and the straight N motion predicted actually happens, I'll keep an eye on it here in SFL, thank you
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2927 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:18 pm

ObsessedMiami wrote:Until the turn is made and the straight N motion predicted actually happens, I'll keep an eye on it here in SFL, thank you

very good idea.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2928 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:21 pm

last recon "pass" showing a due west motion of the center.. so it appears another cyclonic loops is starting..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2929 Postby WeatherOrKnot » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:last recon "pass" showing a due west motion of the center.. so it appears another cyclonic loops is starting..


Is it possible he's just moving west again?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2930 Postby pcolaman » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:25 pm

WeatherOrKnot wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:last recon "pass" showing a due west motion of the center.. so it appears another cyclonic loops is starting..


Is it possible he's just moving west again?



Looks like another loop
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2931 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:25 pm

WeatherOrKnot wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:last recon "pass" showing a due west motion of the center.. so it appears another cyclonic loops is starting..


Is it possible he's just moving west again?


not likely. the ridge to the north is still in place but its at the sw side of this ridge and there is a ridge in the western gulf very narrow area for it to go north especially if the western atlantic ridge is stronger yet still the gulfstream is out flying around to the north today so we will have a better idea for the 18z and 00z models.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2932 Postby La Sirena » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:25 pm

This has just been the weirdest storm. I can't even imagine how the pro-mets are dealing with it.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2933 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:26 pm

We have seen storms in the carribean take longer to be pulled north as the models thought.
Wilma and Mitch are two examples.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2934 Postby Blinhart » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:27 pm

I'm really not watching only the eye, I'm looking at the whole system. If you look at the whole system, it really hasn't moved that much in the last 12 hours. It almost looks like the eye we are watching is riding around another eye that is not visible (i.e. like a toilet bowl, where the water goes around and around but the center is where the water goes down).
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2935 Postby stormreader » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:31 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:big question is now.. how long doe sit have to stay stalled or drift to upset the general timing of the models and that trough.. ? already 7 hours behind almost.. 10 , 12 hours before we see some models really change ?

Image
Stalled! What a good common sense question!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2936 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:33 pm

SO the 18z GFS just started and has a slightly stronger western atlantic ridge initialized ..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2937 Postby tatertawt24 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:34 pm

Matthew always wants to strengthen when the sun starts going down and we can't get any good vis shots. :x
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2938 Postby Caribwxgirl » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:36 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:SO the 18z GFS just started and has a slightly stronger western atlantic ridge initialized ..

What does that mean in terms of likely future direction/movement?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2939 Postby terstorm1012 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:36 pm

radiosonde releases in the east beginning tomorrow at 6z and 18z ( I don't know how to embed tweets here) https://twitter.com/EskimoJoe492/status ... 1570494466
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2940 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:38 pm

Caribwxgirl wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:SO the 18z GFS just started and has a slightly stronger western atlantic ridge initialized ..

What does that mean in terms of likely future direction/movement?


we shall see. GFS at 30 hours is slower with stronger ridging..
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