ATL: MATTHEW - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2921 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:14 pm

The trough over the Midwest needs to dig as fast as possible...that will be the only thing that saves OBX on this run.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4546
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2922 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:14 pm

Through 120 ridge trying to build back in but no cigar. Up up and away SE of FL

Image
Last edited by toad strangler on Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2923 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:15 pm

120 hours = Andros Island... NNW?? :eek:
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

SeGaBob

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2924 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:16 pm

126 NNW
Last edited by SeGaBob on Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2925 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:16 pm

toad strangler wrote:Through 120 ridge trying to build back in but no cigar. Up up and away from FL

that be move alway from south fl after crossing central cuba?
0 likes   

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1895
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2926 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:16 pm

Too close for comfort 5 days out
0 likes   

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 910
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2927 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:17 pm

Thats assuming that the Euro run tonight swings back west. Just when I thought it had a good idea of the west trend it went east while others went west. This is so crazy so dies tonights Euro come back west withe the GFS, guess we will see.
0 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2928 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:17 pm

132hrs.: over the Abacoa Islands.
0 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4546
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2929 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:17 pm

East coast of FL again being licked by outer most bands from Matthew.
0 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6452
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2930 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:17 pm

At hour 126 on 0Z GFS, I estimate he is 125 miles SSW of the 18 GFS position.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6059
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2931 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:18 pm

Still getting the Fujiwhara slingshot from the eastern Gulf vort max.
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

HurricaneFrances04
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 597
Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 am
Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2932 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:18 pm

Really, anything beyond this timestamp is fantasy.

Most interesting points to take from this run:
*GFS continues to trend slower.
*First trough trends weaker.
*Probably major impacts for Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2990
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2933 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:19 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:132hrs.: over the Abacoa Islands.


At 138 hours looks like it clips the east end on Grand Bahama island
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2934 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:19 pm

put now models have data from plane not like other run didnt i heard my weather man that plane take air sample in bahama a area he show were fly by
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2935 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:20 pm

looks like a direct hit on Nassau this run
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2936 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:20 pm

At a minimum the beach erosion and rip currents are going to be off the chart across the entire Southeastern seaboard. Stay out of the water and expect small craft advisories and possibly gale warnings. If the next few runs continue left then we've got bigger issues. First up is Jamaica though...it's been a while since they took a direct hit.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1895
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2937 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:20 pm

About 150 miles offshore from me in ft lauderdale
0 likes   

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1622
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2938 Postby sponger » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:20 pm

The biggest question now is how much strengthening prior to Jamaica? At this rate, we could see A Cat 2 tomorrow.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2939 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:23 pm

UKMET says COLUMBIA, then Haiti, before turning to the NW

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 68.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2016 0 14.3N 68.2W 990 63
1200UTC 30.09.2016 12 13.2N 70.3W 993 54
0000UTC 01.10.2016 24 12.7N 71.3W 992 53
1200UTC 01.10.2016 36 12.5N 71.7W 994 50
0000UTC 02.10.2016 48 13.1N 72.5W 991 52
1200UTC 02.10.2016 60 13.7N 73.6W 989 50
0000UTC 03.10.2016 72 15.3N 74.2W 981 62
1200UTC 03.10.2016 84 16.6N 74.5W 978 64
0000UTC 04.10.2016 96 18.0N 73.7W 978 53
1200UTC 04.10.2016 108 19.6N 73.1W 985 58
0000UTC 05.10.2016 120 20.8N 73.1W 985 54
1200UTC 05.10.2016 132 21.5N 73.8W 989 54
0000UTC 06.10.2016 144 22.4N 74.7W 984 56
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6059
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2940 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:23 pm

500 mb heights still very inconsistent beyond tau 120.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests