ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

NHC-Tracks Leans heavily on continuity

[Nimbus]

Just tropical storm warnings in some area of south Florida. Time to check the awnings and count the neighbors pink Flamingos? If they issue a warning for Category 1 Hurricane I think that means mandatory evacuation of all trailer parks? Most trailers can withstand low end cat 2 except for loose carport panels and awnings. Problem is compounds quickly if everyone decides to evacuate and there isn't any power for traffic signals and gas pumps.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Satellite presentation is improving again.

[floridasun78]

new cone have less south fl in cone

[Blown Away]

Cool loop...

[sunnyday]

Cone just moved a bit to the east of Fl. Fl pretty much outside the cone now. Maybe, this is the beginning of something good for the Fl residents.

[Blown Away]

Cone just moved a bit to the east of Fl. Fl pretty much outside the cone now. Maybe, this is the beginning of something good for the Fl residents.

Actually surprised the cone hasn't moved much during the day given the E trends with the models...

[NJWxHurricane]

Cone just moved a bit to the east of Fl. Fl pretty much outside the cone now. Maybe, this is the beginning of something good for the Fl residents.

low chance florida gets hit at this point. just be on alert

[psyclone]

Possible max rain amounts of 40" for Haiti!

[weathaguyry]

Florida looks like it should be fine. I think that it's people from OBX northward that need to worry.

[WeatherOrKnot]

Matthew keeps spinning around down there. GFS has been continuous with Matthew getting relatively close to SFL. But now Florida is all in the clear because less of it is in the cone? I'm certainly not letting my guard down yet with this storm.

[GCANE]

From Miss Piggy about 10 mins ago

[Blinhart]

Still way to early to say any of Florida is out of the window. This system (just like all others the past 2 seasons) will do what it wants and just laugh about it later.

[Blinhart]

From Miss Piggy about 10 mins ago

I think my 165 MPH and 925mb might not be strong enough for the 7PM Central advisory, might be around 175 and 915.

[chaser1]

its been doing a cyclonic loop for the past 6 hours. will need a few more hours of continued motion in one direction to call it a forward motion.

Almost looks like its about to start another. new frame shows westerly motion again.

Yep, that's the big question now - about to turn north?? Or about to resume it's prior westward motion. Could well be something in the middle but am now thinking that maybe the models had it right all along with an anticipated and fairly sharp poleward turn.

only problem is the this stall.. its already 6 hours behind .. to much longer and models will have to adjust...

I'd assume you're right. Either way, I think we're gonna need at least an hour or two to better determine whether it has continued to essentially stall, of if finally crawling in "some direction" at around 2-3 mph.

Seems there are 2 distinct points where the forecast track "could" potentially change. One being more or less right now, in terms of any unexpected resumed west (or wnw) track. The other being unanticipated stronger ridging in a few days, that could result in a more westward hook toward some point between Florida and N.Carolina. At this point though, if that second scenario were to occur, I'm pretty sure most models will likely sniff that out at least a couple days in advance. Seems as if both the EURO and the GFS sniffed out that weird southwest motion in the Caribbean... like, back in July LOL.

[toad strangler]

Stop focusing on the cone. That represents where the COC may be. We all know how far from the COC you can have big problems. Saying FL or anywhere is in the clear or whatever is foolish.

[SFLcane]

Florida looks ok for what exactly? Still 3-5 days away even if stays in cone many forget impacts do and will be felt outside cone. Way early still

[MGC]

I've been out all day and was expecting to find that Matthew had weakened some...not the case. Hurricane looks much better this afternoon. Didn't see that loop either....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

Yep, that's the big question now - about to turn north?? Or about to resume it's prior westward motion. Could well be something in the middle but am now thinking that maybe the models had it right all along with an anticipated and fairly sharp poleward turn.

only problem is the this stall.. its already 6 hours behind .. to much longer and models will have to adjust...

I'd assume you're right. Either way, I think we're gonna need at least an hour or two to better determine whether it has continued to essentially stall, of if finally crawling in "some direction" at around 2-3 mph.

Seems there are 2 distinct points where the forecast track "could" potentially change. One being more or less right now, in terms of any unexpected resumed west (or wnw) track. The other being unanticipated stronger ridging in a few days, that could result in a more westward hook toward some point between Florida and N.Carolina. At this point though, if that second scenario were to occur, I'm pretty sure most models will likely sniff that out at least a couple days in advance. Seems as if both the EURO and the GFS sniffed out that weird southwest motion in the Caribbean... like, back in July LOL.

Agreed.

last 2 frames from sate showing a clear westerly component again.. so not likely moving and just another loop while its stalled.

noticed the NHC said the ridge is "supposed " break down which means it has not..

[Cyclenall]

Where did this "hot tower" terminology come from? Seems to be the phrase of the year around here.

I saw it being used back in 2012 on here with Ernie. It came from those hurricane research docs you see on those TVs lol.

I wish recon was in there continuously, finding out what Matt's inner core is doing.