ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

0Z GFS initialized, this has the new data.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think most people think that it will miss the USA entirely(and they are probably right)which explains the low amount of traffic on the forum. We will probably know for sure once it makes that forecasted turn. I'm going to hang around for a couple more days, just in case..

[TimeZone]

I believe the GFS will stick to it's guns. I think we may see a slight tick E if anything.

A slight tick east based on what?

New data. I believe this will find an escape route a tad earlier than the last GFS showed. More of a hunch than anything, no need to get so defensive.

[tolakram]

So far very little if any change from the previous run.

[1900hurricane]

00Z trend over past three runs for 500 mb.

[toad strangler]

Looking back just a few days I think it's at least notable the Matthew did not ride in to the Caribbean as low as initially advertised ...

[SeGaBob]

Pressure started way too high...not that it matters much.

[SunnyThoughts]

I think most people think that it will miss the USA entirely(and they are probably right)which explains the low amount of traffic on the forum. We will probably know for sure once it makes that forecasted turn.

Click on Who is online. At the bottom left of the page. Plenty of folks here. Hope we get a better idea of how the models are gonna trend after all the info ingested from g 4

[SeGaBob]

Pressure started way too high...not that it matters much.

Never mind didn't look at full res

[1900hurricane]

Same as above, except with a different domain to include more features over North America.

[tolakram]

Pressure started way too high...not that it matters much.

What map?

Pressure started at 986mb, just about right.

[tolakram]

[SeGaBob]

I already caught the mistake further up this page

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the ridge is actually retreating... hmm..

[fci]

I believe the GFS will stick to it's guns. I think we may see a slight tick E if anything.

A slight tick east based on what?

New data. I believe this will find an escape route a tad earlier than the last GFS showed. More of a hunch than anything, no need to get so defensive.

Just curious, why post a "hunch"?
If it is based on nothing but a hunch, then what does it do to further the conversation?
Not that MY COMMENT is doing anything to further it either, I believe

[SouthFLTropics]

Same as above, except with a different domain to include more features over North America.

That trend seems to show progressively more ridging as the cycle moves forward.

[TimeZone]

A slight tick east based on what?

New data. I believe this will find an escape route a tad earlier than the last GFS showed. More of a hunch than anything, no need to get so defensive.

Just curious, why post a "hunch"?
If it is based on nothing but a hunch, then what does it do to further the conversation?
Not that MY COMMENT is doing anything to further it either, I believe

The hunch stems from the fact that the 0Z NAM(which has the newer data samples) shifted considerably NE. Based on this, I wouldn't be surprised to see the GFS do the same.

[toad strangler]

[HurricaneFrances04]

The NAM is garbage when it comes to tropical systems.

[Evil Jeremy]

A touch SW of the 18z through 48 hours.