ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[wxmann_91]

Why are you saying this?

Last 3 euro runs.

I was just addressing why the NHC seemed to be on the right side of guidance. NHC doesn't have a track after 5 days. Through 5 days, UKMET and Euro are right.

The trend is west. The NHC will show that at some point if the trend continues.

Maybe, but that wasn't what I was addressing in my post.

[fci]

all y'all need to focus on the fact models are trending west more and not the fact it's currently fishing in the models.

You've referred to Hurricane Matthew as a "fish" more than a few times in this thread. I don't know which models you are looking at, but nearly every model I've seen has Matthew affecting Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas. While I hope that Matthew has zero land interaction, the fact is that Matthew will most likely have various landfalls which will certainly not render it a "fish" storm. That stated, y'all need to focus on the fact that there are many other areas outside of the CONUS which will be affected by this storm. Please stop the US bias and remember our neighbors in the Caribbean.

Thanks!

Yes, a true "Fish Storm" hits no land.
But, some people here are here because they live in the US so their reference of "Fish" is synonymous with "Out to Sea".
I really don't think it is stated with all malice towards people who don't live in The US.
I'm just saying we should cut people some slack, it's unintentional.

[AtlanticWind]

I have noticed in the past carribean storms sometimes seem to get farther west than models indicate.
Ivan , Mitch, Wilma as examples

[BobHarlem]

It's asinine to believe that people still think it's going to avoid Florida all together, based on current models.

Why? Most of the models are east of Florida, including the majority of Ensembles, along with climatology it's just more likely to stay east than not. -removed- has always been a bit of a subjective thing here, but it's showing some. This system is worth watching, but the current models are showing it likely (not certain) to stay east of Florida, and one run shift west is not a trend. Jamaica should be the focus now.

[Blown Away]

please watch this video..it gives you everything you need to know about the setup

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=optFvZaFbaE

Great discussion, he used 12z models, love to know his thoughts with the updated models... Probably a similar idea maybe a smidge closer to SFL, just a guess...

[AutoPenalti]

It's asinine to believe that people still think it's going to avoid Florida all together, based on current models.

Why? Most of the models are east of Florida, including the majority of Ensembles, along with climatology it's just more likely to stay east than not. -removed- has always been a bit of a subjective thing here, but it's showing some. This system is worth watching, but the current models are showing it likely (not certain) to stay east of Florida, and one run shift west is not a trend. Jamaica should be the focus now.

There's been a trend of a west shift, which is the difference. Of course, that's not to say that it won't shift back east, but the window is closing.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I agree for the most part what is said is not intentional or without consideration for others. But I admit when I see some of these post about how this area or that area is all clear or safe this far out is stupid. My reasoning for saying this is yes some models have trended east away for FLA, but then again others have tended back west. So this far out there is no one including the Pro's or the National Hurricane Center that really know 100 % where this will end up. So all of this back and forth is all ready getting really old. Back to discussing the hurricane.

[toad strangler]

It's asinine to believe that people still think it's going to avoid Florida all together, based on current models.

Why? Most of the models are east of Florida, including the majority of Ensembles, along with climatology it's just more likely to stay east than not. -removed- has always been a bit of a subjective thing here, but it's showing some. This system is worth watching, but the current models are showing it likely (not certain) to stay east of Florida, and one run shift west is not a trend. Jamaica should be the focus now.

Climo says E of FL in late September and early October? Uh, no.

[sponger]

I am expecting a west track shift of 50 miles or so at 11:00 to reflect model shifts obviously sensing a weaker trough and stronger riding. Matthew is a big boy so won't take much more to put TS force winds into SFL. The GFDL is obviously a huge concern not only for track but intensity as it misses the largest mountains of Cuba. Can't wait to see tomorrow model runs.

[jlauderdal]

Great discussion, he used 12z models, love to know his thoughts with the updated models... Probably a similar idea maybe a smidge closer to SFL, just a guess...

he issued a 4 minute update tonight..follow them on twitter and also check their sites for updates..usually once a day..then get an update every 2 minutes or more on the board

[Ken711]

Great discussion, he used 12z models, love to know his thoughts with the updated models... Probably a similar idea maybe a smidge closer to SFL, just a guess...

From that video the best case is for Matthew to meander before heading north, otherwise the NC/VA border as I have been sensing is very much in play.

[emeraldislenc]

It is going to be interesting if the NHC shifts a little west at 11. What do most people think?

[stayawaynow]

It's asinine to believe that people still think it's going to avoid Florida all together, based on current models.

cmon, gfs an euro are still offshore....just because we are trending west doesnt mean florida is getting hit, plenty of time for models and real weather to avoid florida

As long as jlauderdale is comfortable then so am I. He has a secret weapon that keeps storms away from South Florida!!!

Hope he cranks up the generator soon! Then go to Chucks and wait because Matthew bears watching.

[toad strangler]

It is going to be interesting if the NHC shifts a little west at 11. What do most people think?

I think it would take more from model heavyweights to see a NHC cone shift to the W. Especially at 11 PM. If the 0z Suite supports a W shift you would see that reflected in the AM update. My opinion.

[AutoPenalti]

It is going to be interesting if the NHC shifts a little west at 11. What do most people think?

It will most likely remain the same.

[CrazyC83]

I think 5 am will be when any shifts occur (if any). The 00Z model runs will not be out for the 11 pm advisory.

[jlauderdal]

Great discussion, he used 12z models, love to know his thoughts with the updated models... Probably a similar idea maybe a smidge closer to SFL, just a guess...

From that video the best case is for Matthew to meander before heading north, otherwise the NC/VA border as I have been sensing is very much in play.

meander is fine if there is actually a trough in place to take it out or at least keep it 100+ offshore, anything closer and you better prepare likes it making a direct hit.....nobody in florida and points north towards virgina should feel safe and i dont care if the next runs go east west or sideways, this is a very fluid situation as we are still beyond 5 days...furthermore this sure does look like a major in the carib and plenty of energy even after cooba, lets see..intensity is really a beast to predict

[jlauderdal]

cmon, gfs an euro are still offshore....just because we are trending west doesnt mean florida is getting hit, plenty of time for models and real weather to avoid florida

As long as jlauderdale is comfortable then so am I. He has a secret weapon that keeps storms away from South Florida!!!

Hope he cranks up the generator soon! Then go to Chucks and wait because Matthew bears watching.

models are jumpy for sure, not sure the drops will really clear anything up beyond cuba...this is a model thread so need to stay on that..discussion thread for chucks, lol

[Steve]

Fairly decent consensus on the 00z early cycle guidance, and all west of 75. It's a close call. Intensity models are mid-grade. I don't trust them, but they're showing moderate/Cat 2 type system. You'd think after Cuba (or wherever), it can get stronger than that.

Notice what are not plotted on those intensity models. The global models. When even models like the 2.5 degree version of the JMA and the NAVGEM are showing a cat 2/3, you know this is going to be an absolute monster

Oh for sure. I know you feel like a 4 or 5 is a fairly good shot. And 57 suggested the opportunity for half the ACE this year if it crawls. So this could be a mother. I just hope damage in all the islands from the GA to the Bahamian Kingdom is as minimal as can be, and also that the US only gets some brush by effects. I'm still watching the timing and the WPAC teleconnection from yesterday's landfall. That's potentially good through next Wednesday. Newest system is progged to recurve but across Japan. That would be a teleconnection to Outer Banks but not til probably mid week after next and more of a mixed signal.

[Bocadude85]

I am expecting a west track shift of 50 miles or so at 11:00 to reflect model shifts obviously sensing a weaker trough and stronger riding. Matthew is a big boy so won't take much more to put TS force winds into SFL. The GFDL is obviously a huge concern not only for track but intensity as it misses the largest mountains of Cuba. Can't wait to see tomorrow model runs.

Luckily the GFDL is a pretty bad model, so the chances of it verifying are pretty slim. Unless the models continue their westward shifts I think Matthew will pass 150-200 miles east of Florida. Far enough to east to not have any watches or warnings up for the coastline (we have seen many times before a hurricane warning in the northwestern Bahamas and not a watch or anything for S.Fla)